Possible Similar Scenario 1921, Charley for Tampa Bay

[gtalum]

I think it's far too early to speculate, and with the size of our coastline the odds are in my favor.

Seriously, speculation this far out seems to be almost always wrong and is a good part of the reason for most people's complacency regarding these storms.

[Rainband]

The BIG question is where it makes the turn, or if it turns at all.

If this current trend continues. The west coast of Florida will be in trouble. Maybe not in terms of Landfall but in terms of being on the east side of a Hurricane..sometime next week

The official NHC track in 126hrs has it at 23.2 N and 85.8 W. I realize it's subject to large errors. However, if that verifies i believe it will be far enough offshore to spare the West Coast.

Unless of course, it's a Katrina type Hurricane.

Tampa to 85.8 W is about 150-160 miles away.

What I have heard is the further west it gets early on the more it will impact the coast of Florida. Guess it depends on the trof. It's a crapshoot at this point. I hope nogaps verifies. Don't want to deal with this no way no how!!

[Droop12]

Its way to early to compare td 24 and Charley. If I had to take a guess based on climo, I wouldnt expect anything more then a strong cat 2 at landfall where ever that may be. The gulf is not as warm anymore, theres not a lot of OHC or TCHP out there. Dry air will more then likely be a problem down the road and also if the storm takes a turn to the N or NE and accelerates, I believe weakening will occur. Only chance this has to be a cat 3+ is in the Caribbean. But that is JMO.

[hicksta]

Its way to early to compare td 24 and Charley. If I had to take a guess based on climo, I wouldnt expect anything more then a strong cat 2 at landfall where ever that may be. The gulf is not as warm anymore, theres not a lot of OHC or TCHP out there. Dry air will more then likely be a problem down the road and also if the storm takes a turn to the N or NE and accelerates, I believe weakening will occur. Only chance this has to be a cat 3+ is in the Caribbean. But that is JMO.

My forcast would bring her from Tampa - the keys. Cat 3

[gatorcane]

The Eastern GOM is plenty warm enough to support CAT 3+ storms.

Remember the Eastern GOM has been spared the entire season. So it makes sense for mother nature to remove the excess heat out of this area with a hurricane.

[jhamps10]

I've got to agree. The Eastern GOM is more than warm enough to support a cat 3+.

I am saying this cause you never know, EVERYONE in the GOM region (I mean everyone from Brownsville to Marco Island) needs to look at this closely. People from Mobile to Ft. Myers REALLY needs to look at this closely, and it may not be a bad idea to get some plans in final order, just to be safe.

[Rainband]

Any storm that passes anywhere close to me I watch. Do I think this storm will have any impact on my area?? If I knew that I would have won the Lotto last night. Point is, be ready and watch. After last year and especially this year.... The excitement is gone for me. The nervous anticipation is the only thing that remains. Hope that clears up any doubts wether I want anything more than a TS coming my way!!

[MGC]

I'd send ya'll some crow but all of mine spoiled in the freezer because of Katrina.....MGC

[gatorcane]

bump

[Brent]

I'd send ya'll some crow but all of mine spoiled in the freezer because of Katrina.....MGC

LOL

[gatorcane]

I'll have to bump this because it certainly may look alot like Oct. of 1921 this week.

[inotherwords]

I'll have to bump this because it certainly may look alot like Oct. of 1921 this week.

To me it looks like October of 2005 and I'm getting a little weary of such annoying certainty by amateurs when even the pros don't know where it's going yet.

[gatorcane]

To me it looks like October of 2005 and I'm getting a little weary of such annoying certainty when even the pros don't know where it's going yet.

If you read through the posts in the pro met forum I'm not very far off from their thinking either. Derek thinks we'll have a major CAT 3+ hurricane hitting SW FL.

He says that this one is going to hit the peninsula VERY hard.

I'd have to agree with him on that.

[inotherwords]

Derek's latest forecast would bring the storm in pretty far south of Tampa Bay, your favorite target.

Also NHC is predicting that the storm will deintensify quite a bit when it's in the GOM. That's still a possibility even though Derek is still uncertain about this as he also stated in his recent forecast.

My point is that there are still far too many uncertainties for you to keep beating the drum repeatedly ad nauseum that this is definitely going to hit Tampa and it's going to be catastrophic. I think you need to dial it down a bit, IMO, or start posting disclaimers.

[gatorcane]

Derek's latest forecast would bring the storm in pretty far south of Tampa Bay, your favorite target.

Also NHC is predicting that the storm will deintensify quite a bit when it's in the GOM. That's still a possibility even though Derek is still uncertain about this as he also stated in his recent forecast.

My point is that there are still far too many uncertainties for you to keep beating the drum repeatedly ad nauseum that this is definitely going to hit Tampa and it's going to be catastrophic. I think you need to dial it down a bit, IMO, or start posting disclaimers.

Well I'd have to agree calling Tampa Bay is a premature gesture -- that certainly warrants disclaimers -- it may not be a direct hit on Tampa Bay but it's certainly going to be a close call in my opinion.

Again as inotherwords mentions, there is a HUGE disclaimer on this.

[CharleySurvivor]

Wherever she hits, whatever CAT she is... it will create damages.

I use to be leary of only CAT 3 or higher, not anymore since I've seen what Katrina did in Miami. She was just a CAT 1!

[johngaltfla]

To me it looks like October of 2005 and I'm getting a little weary of such annoying certainty when even the pros don't know where it's going yet.

If you read through the posts in the pro met forum I'm not very far off from their thinking either. Derek thinks we'll have a major CAT 3+ hurricane hitting SW FL.

He says that this one is going to hit the peninsula VERY hard.

I'd have to agree with him on that.

It would appear that the GFDL, Joe Bastardi and Derek are all in agreement.

Now THAT scares the living crap out of me.

[inotherwords]

To me it looks like October of 2005 and I'm getting a little weary of such annoying certainty when even the pros don't know where it's going yet.

If you read through the posts in the pro met forum I'm not very far off from their thinking either. Derek thinks we'll have a major CAT 3+ hurricane hitting SW FL.

He says that this one is going to hit the peninsula VERY hard.

I'd have to agree with him on that.

It would appear that the GFDL, Joe Bastardi and Derek are all in agreement.

Now THAT scares the living crap out of me.

Hello? We're still five days before landfall.

[inotherwords]

[gatorcane]

I still don't think Tampa Bay is all clear. In fact my concern about them is still very great.

I just don't see the sharp turns these models are forecasting.