Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[CronkPSU]

looks like the cloud tops have warmed some, maybe b/c she is coming out of the night time convective maxima

or the replacement cycle is beginning....not sure if that is a good thing

[Scorpion]

Good news is I don't see this hitting near Key West, I still see landfall on the Pandhandle. Storms like this like to create their own environments and I bet this baby will make it up to the Panhandle.



You don't have to take my word for it but trust me, I wouldn't exac just yet....

Let me guess you live in Tallahassee.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hurakan posted a picture of the expected deep diving front. Looking at that graphic, there is no way the storm would just pull a turn that sharply to the east. As a nearly N to S oriented front started approaching, it would cause it to go in a more NNE direction.

If the front was approaching and it was more lateral like WSW to ENE, then I could see the sort of motion expected in the models right now.

[Weatherfreak000]

New Orleans





You can stop judging my actions now.

[margaritabeach]

Hurakan posted a picture of the expected deep diving front. Looking at that graphic, there is no way the storm would just pull a turn that sharply to the east. As a nearly N to S oriented front started approaching, it would cause it to go in a more NNE direction.

If the front was approaching and it was more lateral like WSW to ENE, then I could see the sort of motion expected in the models right now.

Thanks for correcting the NHC and the mets on this board.

[EDR1222]

It will be interesting to see what happens to Wilma when she gets into the Southeastern Gulf regarding her windfield. Sometimes hurricanes that get very intense go through ERC's and then when they become weaker their windfield will expand. Katrinas expanded quite a bit, and I believe Isabel in 2003 did the same thing. Not to say that this Wilma will do the same, but its something to watch for.

[cjrciadt]

You can make out the eye, even with the distortion.

[wxcrazytwo]

Hurakan posted a picture of the expected deep diving front. Looking at that graphic, there is no way the storm would just pull a turn that sharply to the east. As a nearly N to S oriented front started approaching, it would cause it to go in a more NNE direction.

If the front was approaching and it was more lateral like WSW to ENE, then I could see the sort of motion expected in the models right now.

Thanks for correcting the NHC and the mets on this board.

Uh, even the NHC have a hard time determining strength, position, and timing of the front and its effect on Wilma. She is just stating her opinion. I don't see the sharp turn either, especially if, the trough don't dip that low t push it ene..

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SWAN ISLAND.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE
CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 325
MILES... 520 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 882 MB...26.05 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Scorpion]

Hurakan posted a picture of the expected deep diving front. Looking at that graphic, there is no way the storm would just pull a turn that sharply to the east. As a nearly N to S oriented front started approaching, it would cause it to go in a more NNE direction.

If the front was approaching and it was more lateral like WSW to ENE, then I could see the sort of motion expected in the models right now.

Thanks for correcting the NHC and the mets on this board.

Uh, even the NHC have a hard time determining strength, position, and timing of the front and its effect on Wilma. She is just stating her opinion. I don't see the sharp turn either, especially if, the trough don't dip that low t push it ene..

So the model trend the past 2 days is just on crack?

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
1500Z WED OCT 19 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SWAN ISLAND.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER SOUTH TO BELIZE
CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.2W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 882 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.2W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 82.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
50 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.1N 85.1W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.9W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 86.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 39.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 83.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[txwatcher91]

Is it me or does she appear to be moving WSW?

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[cjrciadt]

[skysummit]

Is it me or does she appear to be moving WSW?

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

It's wobbling. She'll probably go due south next then begin north again.

[Brent]

Still a Cat 2 when it moves offshore Florida and the track implies a threat to New England.

[wxmann_91]

Looked at the advisories - we were so close to beating a record, Wilma went from 980 to 882 mb in 24 hours. Two more millibars and we would've tied the record.

[chris_fit]

Track shifted slightly to the north of previous advisory. However, remember not to read that dotted line as the Bible this far out.

[feederband]

Track shifted slightly to the north of previous advisory. However, remember not to read that dotted line as the Bible this far out.

Notice also not as sharp of a right hook more of a bend...I hope this is not a trend..

[k-man]

The ditzy blonde weather chick (and I'm a blonde myself) on Fox 35 in Orlando, said "not to worry, it'll just be breezy with a passing shower" here.

I agree that she is ditzy, but what she said is what all the local mets are saying here. If Wilma stays on her current track we'll get 20-30 mph sustained winds and an inch or two of rain. We have more powerful thunderstorms in the summer and stronger coldfronts in the winter. I'm not saying that we shouldn't keep an eye on it, but on its present course running out for plywood and truckloads of water is silly.

[cycloneye]