Worst possible track for South Florida?

[browe29]

Is this the worst possible track for South Florida? Which way do you evacuate? How far inland do you go without actually getting closer to the storm if you are on the east coast? If you are in Naples, do you go to Miami? I couldn't see evacuating north to Tampa or Orlando based on the projected path.

[Scorpion]

No place is safe except the Panhandle. If you want to evacuate, you have to go to Georgia or the Panhandle. The rest of the peninsula is fair game for a hurricane.

[browe29]

No place is safe except the Panhandle. If you want to evacuate, you have to go to Georgia or the Panhandle. The rest of the peninsula is fair game for a hurricane.

With gas already very very low here in the panhandle, I can't imagine what it will be like with 2-5 million people heading north.

[sprink52]

There are a few worse case tracks.

1. Marco Island land fall thru the glades to Kendal and thru downtown Miami and cross the coast at about 20th and Collins Av.

2. Naples land fall thru the glades thru Miramar/Pembrooke Pines and downtown Ft. Lauderdale and cross the coast at Commercial Blvd. & A1A.

3. Ft. Meyers land fall across the glades thru Wellington/Royal Palm Beach/Palm Beach Gardens and cross the coast at PGA Blvd & A1A

Any one of these as a cat 3 or cat 4 intensity would cause $30~$40 billon in damage. A major hit at Sloan's curve in Palm Beach would get $10 billion on the island alone.

[Hfcomms]

With gas already very very low here in the panhandle, I can't imagine what it will be like with 2-5 million people heading north

That's why anyone who is smart will leave NOW!!! Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. During Katrina and Rita folks were dilly dallying around and by the time they thought they should leave everyone had the same idea at the same time and look what happened.

This country does not have the resources for another huge event on top of everything else that has happened. If you stay you better have the supplies to make it on your own for a considerable period of time.

[HURAKAN]

I believe the storm should take a path like Hurricane Isbell in 1964.

[digitaldahling]

At 9AM CDT, Hurricane Wilma will be near 17.4N/83.0W, or 330 miles southeast of Cozumel, MX. Wilma is moving west-northwest at 8 mph. Minimum pressure has fallen to record Atlantic Basin levels, and is now down to 882 mb, or 26.05 inches. Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 175 mph.


The pressure falls witnessed in Wilma last night can only be described as incredible. Not only did the pressure fall nearly 80 millibars in less than 12 hours, which is likely a world record, but right now Wilma has broken the all time minimum pressure record for the Western Hemisphere. Wilma is now a very dangerous category 5 hurricane and we do expect the storm to maintain category 4-5 intensity over the next 24 hours. Some weakening is expected over the southeast Gulf on Friday and Saturday as Wilma encounters slightly cooler water and increasing shear.


There continues to be very little change in the forecast track. Model guidance and upper level steering current data remains very consistent and we see no reason to make any big changes. We expect Wilma to maintain a west-northwest to northwest motion over the next 12-24 hours, followed by gradual turn to the north-northwest and north on Thursday and Friday as high pressure to the north of Wilma weakens. Wilma is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel early Friday and move into the southeast Gulf by midday Friday. Once over the Gulf, Wilma will be influenced by a fairly strong upper level trough across the southern U.S., which should steer the storm at a faster pace toward the northeast. Landfall is still projected to be in between Key West and Fort Myers, Florida, Saturday afternoon as a category 3 hurricane with 115-125 mph winds.


One thing of note about Wilma is the relatively small size of the strong hurricane-force winds around the center. They will only extend out 25-35 miles from the center. Whereas is Katrina, for instance, they extended as much as 100 miles out from the center. This means the wave and storm surge action from Wilma will be much less than with Katrina even if it has similar strength when it reaches south Florida.


A storm surge of 9-13 feet is expected near and up to 30 miles to the right of where the center crosses the coast. Since Wilma will be moving at a very fast pace across south Florida, rainfall amounts are forecast to be reduced and should average only 5-7 inches in the prime right quadrant of the storm, with isolated amounts maybe as high as 8-12 inches.


The next forecast track will be issued near 3PM CDT.