Mayfield's Press Conference

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terpfan
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Mayfield's Press Conference

#1 Postby terpfan » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:48 am

Did he say just say some models indicate 30-40-50 foot wave action breaking over land, eg keys?
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#2 Postby Tri-State_1925 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:52 am

I don't know, but he did say something about the 1938 New England hurricane...oh, that's just great
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#3 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:53 am

What exactly did he say? Some of us are at work and won't get to see this. Or is there a link somewhere I can read the press conference or stream it over the web when I get home?
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#4 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:54 am

That had absolutely no good news in it. Said if it wasn't for Katrina or Rita, this would be the big one of the season. He seemed very concerned about a threat to New England after Florida.
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#5 Postby Greta » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:54 am

Believe he said up to 50 ft. waves in the open ocean.
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#6 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:58 am

Brent wrote:That had absolutely no good news in it. Said if it wasn't for Katrina or Rita, this would be the big one of the season. He seemed very concerned about a threat to New England after Florida.


Did he give a landfall Projection Brent? Stength/Path?
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#7 Postby terpfan » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:58 am

He did say over open ocean, but then i thought he said breaking over land...wish I had a way to link to a replay of the press conference b/c I certainly don't want to mischaracterize his comments...I'd say watch your 12 o'clock news if you can...they do seem more than a bit concerned at NHC...
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#8 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:01 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Brent wrote:That had absolutely no good news in it. Said if it wasn't for Katrina or Rita, this would be the big one of the season. He seemed very concerned about a threat to New England after Florida.


Did he give a landfall Projection Brent? Stength/Path?


No... he said don't focus on the black line. Could landfall anywhere in the cone.
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#9 Postby BReb » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:01 am

New England has some really chilly waters protecting it this time of the year- in the 65 degree range. Even with the great forward speed, could it really remain that strong in New England after passing over the Florida peninsula? Won't it be subject to a lot of shear on its dash northward?

Anything is possible, but I see a storm with an eye this small as being far more fragile than a larger storm.
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#10 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:02 am

BReb wrote:New England has some really chilly waters protecting it this time of the year- in the 65 degree range. Even with the great forward speed, could it really remain that strong in New England after passing over the Florida peninsula? Won't it be subject to a lot of shear on its dash northward?

Anything is possible, but I see a storm with an eye this small as being far more fragile than a larger storm.


Yes it could... and he also said the storm is expected to expand in size and then expand even more after Florida. We're not gonna be dealing with a 2-5 mile wide eye then.
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#11 Postby Micro Dee » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:19 am

Found this on the website for Channel 10 news in Miami. He stated "models have forecasted waves of up to 30 feet in the open ocean that will hit the coast when storm moves ashore".
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#12 Postby Praxus » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:24 am

Hmm...now thats On TOP of the storm surge, right ?
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#13 Postby terpfan » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:37 am

I believe NHC will be holding another press conference at 4:45.
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#14 Postby btangy » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:52 am

BReb wrote:New England has some really chilly waters protecting it this time of the year- in the 65 degree range. Even with the great forward speed, could it really remain that strong in New England after passing over the Florida peninsula? Won't it be subject to a lot of shear on its dash northward?


The ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS are all showing a 'perfect storm' scenario in which Wilma gets absorbed into an extratropical low, which then creates a monster storm over New England. I'm not buying into this scenario yet. There's still a lot of run to run variability that far out and it really depends on the evolution of this big trough that's supposed to dig into the Ohio Valley.
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#15 Postby PhillyWX » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:31 pm

IMO, it's not Wilma being absorbed by the low but a phasing situation that the models are painting ala Hazel.
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#16 Postby 27-80 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:32 pm

this CNN story http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/10/19/wilma/index.html has a link to a video clip of the Mayfield press conference
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#17 Postby MetroMike » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:17 pm

I heard on WFLA radio here in Tampa that the news conf. at 4:45 will be to announce a major track change. perhaps a stall in the caribbean. This come from a source that has ties with the NHC.
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#18 Postby CDO62 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:37 pm

Listen to the Mayfield press conference live at 4:45 at http://www.970wfla.com
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#19 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:45 pm

MetroMike wrote:I heard on WFLA radio here in Tampa that the news conf. at 4:45 will be to announce a major track change. perhaps a stall in the caribbean. This come from a source that has ties with the NHC.


And here I thought they were going to announce that last night's rapid intensification was an accidental side effect of having dropped Dynomat Gel into the storm.

:lol: :lol:
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#20 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:51 pm

Seems his main emphasis is that confidence has gone way down in the 3 to 5 day range.
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