Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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DESTRUCTION5
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#1201 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:47 pm

Now WTF? Ukie Shifted N?
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#1202 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:47 pm

That's the new run sky. I hope that it's just a model on crack today because that run would not be pleasant for any of us here in S. FL time wise, or direction wise. :roll:
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#1203 Postby Amanzi » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:49 pm

Image
Thats how I feel after looking at those new model runs.
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#1204 Postby ericinmia » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:50 pm

fsu mm5 is doing something similar so far...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/WILMA.d1.track.png
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#1205 Postby nequad » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:50 pm

Well... the 12Z UK model is in line with the current forecast. And the 12Z NGP was also. So perhaps the GFDL and GFS are out to lunch today. Either way, it is still worth noting the distance between the 120 hour position of the GFDL and the 120 hour forecast from the NHC.

The GFDL run may never verify, but at this point who really knows? Visions of Mitch are dancing in my head.
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#1206 Postby shaggy » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:50 pm

don't see how a model can go from a maine landfall to a south of cuba stall in just one run.I am sure they will look at it and probably toss it out because the GFS still shows a rapid movement off to the ENE and out into the Atlantic.

Wonder if the model is suffering from some sort of mitch syndrome where it wants to stall because the only other storm with a similiar pattern did stall???
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#1207 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:51 pm

Amanzi wrote:Image
Thats how I feel after looking at those new model runs.


:lol:

Add that to the lack of sleep and ugh.
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#1208 Postby AZS » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:52 pm

That model is :eek:

Imagine a CAT 4 ( or 5 ??? ) storm, with a storm surge of a CAT 5 hitting places like Cozumel, Cancun... and then moving backwards


:eek:
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#1209 Postby tronbunny » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:53 pm

Ericinmia also caught the same thing I did..
The AFMM5 is also initialized on the GFS like the GFDL.
but check this out!
Image

Something doesn't look right on the initialization!
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#1210 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER
WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES... 480 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS WOBBLING AROUND AN AVERAGE MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF WILMA SHORTLY TO
PROVIDE A DIRECT MEASURE OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 83.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#1211 Postby tallywx » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:55 pm

The latest model diagnostic discussion from HPC:

...HRCN WILMA...

VRY POOR MDL CONSISTENCY WITH WILDLY VARYING SOLNS SEEN IN THE 12Z GLOBAL MDL SUITE. THE OVERALL TREND OF A SLOWER MOVING HRCN WILMA SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN SHRT TERM TRENDS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUE TO BE THE POINT AT WHICH THE STG HEIGHT FALLS OVR THE E CTRL U.S. PULL THE STORM POLEWARD. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND WWD IN THE 12Z UKMET/GFS AND NAM SOLNS...BUT THESE MDLS DIFFER WITH THEIR TIMING. THE 12Z CMC SOLN IS FARTHER TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE FASTER. PLS SEE LATEST NHC DISC FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON WILMA.

geez...next thing you know, wilma will be sucked into the Yucatan a la Isidore and then move towards Florida as a lumbering tropical storm

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

"prognosis" bordering on sarcasm, so don't flame me.
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#1212 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:56 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER
WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES... 480 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS WOBBLING AROUND AN AVERAGE MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF WILMA SHORTLY TO
PROVIDE A DIRECT MEASURE OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 83.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#1213 Postby jpigott » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:59 pm

tronbunny wrote:Ericinmia also caught the same thing I did..
The AFMM5 is also initialized on the GFS like the GFDL.
but check this out!
Image

Something doesn't look right on the initialization!


darn skippy something doesn't look right. Its initialized at 50kts instead of 150kts and 993mb instead of 893mb. Add to this we haven't had any recon in Wilma for 12 hrs and we have had no miniobs from the current recon flight for 50 min. Cmon people, this is the biggest baddest storm in the Atlantic of all time with potential serious effects for the Yuchatan, Western Cuba, Peninsular Florida and even the North East. Someone is dropping the ball
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#1214 Postby ericinmia » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:00 pm

tronbunny wrote:Ericinmia also caught the same thing I did..
The AFMM5 is also initialized on the GFS like the GFDL.
but check this out!
Image

Something doesn't look right on the initialization!


I agree that is all off.... From what i see in a lot of the models they are having a REALLY hard time modeling the init. of this storm.

It appears they are all not capturing the small VERY intense windfield and small eye. They are seeing the larger eyewall, and TS windfield.

WOW, this is going to suck if the models continue to not work out to well. Back to ploting isobars, etc. by hand ;)
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#1215 Postby ericinmia » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:01 pm

tronbunny wrote:Ericinmia also caught the same thing I did..
The AFMM5 is also initialized on the GFS like the GFDL.
but check this out!
Image

Something doesn't look right on the initialization!


I agree that is all off.... From what i see in a lot of the models they are having a REALLY hard time modeling the init. of this storm.

It appears they are all not capturing the small VERY intense windfield and small eye. They are seeing the larger eyewall, and TS windfield.

WOW, this is going to suck if the models continue to not work out to well. Back to ploting isobars, etc. by hand ;)
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#1216 Postby ericinmia » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:02 pm

tronbunny wrote:Ericinmia also caught the same thing I did..
The AFMM5 is also initialized on the GFS like the GFDL.
but check this out!
Image

Something doesn't look right on the initialization!


I agree that is all off.... From what i see in a lot of the models they are having a REALLY hard time modeling the init. of this storm.

It appears they are all not capturing the small VERY intense windfield and small eye. They are seeing the larger eyewall, and TS windfield.

WOW, this is going to suck if the models continue to not work out to well. Back to ploting isobars, etc. by hand ;)
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#1217 Postby nequad » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:07 pm

No one is "dropping the ball". Global models never initialize a hurricane with the correct pressure or wind field. It's not relative to future track anyway.

Now...initializing the current position is important, and generally the globals have a good initialization of the current location.

The probelm is the evolution of the upper trough, and how deep this feature amplifies, and when. Also, how much latitude can the hurricane gain before feeling the affects of said trough. These are the issues the globals are having trouble resolving.

You can't just ignore the trends of the 12Z guidance. It is entirely possible for Wilma to meander as the GFDL shows, assuming it misses the connection with the trough.
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#1218 Postby El Nino » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:10 pm

Estimated pressure at 900 now.
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#1219 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:14 pm

nequad wrote:No one is "dropping the ball". Global models never initialize a hurricane with the correct pressure or wind field. It's not relative to future track anyway.

Now...initializing the current position is important, and generally the globals have a good initialization of the current location.

The probelm is the evolution of the upper trough, and how deep this feature amplifies, and when. Also, how much latitude can the hurricane gain before feeling the affects of said trough. These are the issues the globals are having trouble resolving.

You can't just ignore the trends of the 12Z guidance. It is entirely possible for Wilma to meander as the GFDL shows, assuming it misses the connection with the trough.


No Friggin Way....MM5 is useless and this is just a major busted Run by the GFDL....Nothing has changed..
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#1220 Postby tronbunny » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:14 pm

nequad wrote:No one is "dropping the ball". Global models never initialize a hurricane with the correct pressure or wind field. It's not relative to future track anyway.

Now...initializing the current position is important, and generally the globals have a good initialization of the current location.
<snip>


That's a VERY interesting tidbit of info.
I wonder why the current pressure or windfield is not a prime component of the algorithms.

Anyone notice 12z GFS looks about the same as last run.
Funny that the GFDL is so wild!
12z consensus has shifted a bit south, and has the storm doing a wacky dance of the SWFLa coast.
Last edited by tronbunny on Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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