Let's talk surge and Wilma...

[vbhoutex]

I am seeing different opinions on what the surge could be in Florida from Wilma. All of these opinions are from "tropcially educated" members of this site and are due respect.

As we all know Wilma is currently a CAT5 monster storm. We have seen what can happen when a Hurricane carries its CAT5 surge to the coast whether the Hurricane is still a CAT5 or not.

Lets look at the geograpy involved here. Wilma is in the NW Carribean "surrounded" by Central America, Mexico, and Cuba. Most of these areas will be experiencing some massive storm surges from Wilma. As Wilma moves into the Yucatan channel and the SE GOM and probably begins to weaken will she lose some or most of the CAT5 surge she has been carrying? Again, we talk geography. Will most of this massive surge have been spent on the "surrounding" terrain and therefore be less once Wilma is into the GOM? I think there is a strong probability this will happen and that the surge coming into SW FL(presumed landfall)will not be like what was seen with Katrina and Rita. My guess is it will be in the 12-18 foot range near landfall if Wilma comes in as a major hurricane, which I think she will. This is of course nothing to laugh at and can and will cause major destruction if it verifies.

What do others think? Please explain why you came to the conclusions you did concerning this question.

[cjrciadt]

This show about up to 10 foot Storm Surge near landfall, however Mayfield has brought out the high wave action that might come as well. I dont expect a surge as high as Katrina, but that could mean higher waves on top of the surge itself.
Link to TAOS:http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/mapserv.exe?mode=browse&zoom=2&layer=country&layer=track&layer=simtrack&layer=surge&imgxy=299.5+299.5&imgext=-97.566722+8.033333+-57.500056+48.033333&map=..%2Fhurapak%2FAAL242005.map&savequery=true

[inotherwords]

I asked this in the Pro Met forum. Derek Ortt said expect a Cat 5 storm surge, Don Sutherland said Cat 1-2 storm surge.

This is a big concern for me as I'm in a Cat 2 evac zone. I have an empty rental house that's 2 stories and I'd be moving important stuff over there upstairs if it wasn't raining outside right now...

[shaggy]

my opinion is that the surge will be severe but fairly localized.With a small storm like this it doesn't have the windfield like katrina did so it can't build up the water over a vast area like she did.IMO this means a small section in the direct eyewall will see a severe surge while places just a few miles down the road may see marginal surge heights.

[dhweather]

My thoughts are that she'll be a 5 as she enters the GOM, then
weaken to a 3 at landfall in Florida. I think the surge will come down
to around 15-19 feet - 18 is cat 5 on the SS scale right now.

Add the "large and bettering waves" on top, and water will do
catastrophic damage along the coast near the landfall area.

The only question I have is what will the rapid acceleration to the E/NE
do with the surge. I would hope that would decrease it some.

[inotherwords]

Our local Sarasota met (Bob Harrigan) said a month ago that the biggest surge we could get in our area due to topography was 16 feet. He didn't explain why, and I'm just repeating what he said then.

[HurricaneQueen]

Great question. I for one would like to hear more on this subject and I'm sure I'm not alone. I just found our elevation information (12 ft) and flood zone (AE). Slosh=2 and surge elevation 7.4' to 11.9' This is approximately 1/4 mile from the inland waterway and 1/2 mile from Gulf. Currently we are in nearly the direct path. Bye-bye house?

I am resigned, however, to what will be, will be. We have no control over mother nature, only over ourselves.

Lynn

[artist]

according to the met from the eoc ( maybe nhc-don't know) said they do expect the windfield to increase before it hits florida

[charley]

Forgive me if this is a very stupid question, but will Key Largo experience high water from storm surge that results in extra water being pushed into Florida Bay?

My best friend lives 10 feet from the water on the Bay side of Key Largo, in National Park housing (ie: a manufactured home). It's not on a foundation; just up on bricks.

Obviously, she's evacuating (tomorrow morning, in fact, to avoid the rush), but I'm trying to ascertain for her whether or not the storm surge from Wilma could cause a domino effect of water being pushed higher than normal into the Bay, which could then cause problems for her home. She's wondering whether she could end up having her home ruined (knocked off the bricks it's on) due to water from this hurricane.

Does anyone have any thoughs on this that I can pass on to her?

[vbhoutex]

Forgive me if this is a very stupid question, but will Key Largo experience high water from storm surge that results in extra water being pushed into Florida Bay?

My best friend lives 10 feet from the water on the Bay side of Key Largo, in National Park housing (ie: a manufactured home). It's not on a foundation; just up on bricks.

Obviously, she's evacuating (tomorrow morning, in fact, to avoid the rush), but I'm trying to ascertain for her whether or not the storm surge from Wilma could cause a domino effect of water being pushed higher than normal into the Bay, which could then cause problems for her home. She's wondering whether she could end up having her home ruined (knocked off the bricks it's on) due to water from this hurricane.

Does anyone have any thoughs on this that I can pass on to her?

First it isn't a stupid question. Th eonly stupic question is one that isn't asked.

There is a good possibility she could recieve damage from surge coming up into florida Bay, especially since it is not a deep basin. I am not sure how much she would get there but there will definitely be some. Best thing to do is check with local authorites and/or check the slodh models for that area.

And as stated above the windfield for Wilma is expected to get larger, but not as large as Katrina's was. I do expect, that whatever the surge is that it won't be confined to just the immediate eye and eyewall areas, but I don't expect it to be large 80-100 miles from the center like it was with Katrina.

If you are in a CAT2 flood /evac zone on the SW FL coast anywhere South of Tampa Bay,IMO, you need to be preparing to leave now. I'm not saying leave right away, but begin preparations and be ready to leave when you need/are asked to.

[dhweather]

Great question. I for one would like to hear more on this subject and I'm sure I'm not alone. I just found our elevation information (12 ft) and flood zone (AE). Slosh=2 and surge elevation 7.4' to 11.9' This is approximately 1/4 mile from the inland waterway and 1/2 mile from Gulf. Currently we are in nearly the direct path. Bye-bye house?

I am resigned, however, to what will be, will be. We have no control over mother nature, only over ourselves.

Lynn

Lynn - That's the best attitude you can have. When you evacuate, just take things you know you can not replace and important papers.
Everything else, in the big picture, has no value compared to your
life. We took pictures, papers, and my computer. Too bad my evac locale had no high speed internet.

Stay safe!!!!!

David

[jim09091]

Thank God there is no water around our home....

[f5]

get out do not stay we saw what surge can do you can hide from the wind but water is much more powerful as Katrina showed us

[Recurve]

I'm in key largo on the oceanside of US 1.

We're trying to figure out how much the presumably south winds here at landfall or after on the west coast would produce surge on the oceanside of the upper keys, and how much the funnel effect of Florida Bay would catch surge on the bayside. One thing seems certain, that US 1 -- the 18-mile stretch from Key Largo to Florida City -- could be severely impacted from surge going up Florida Bay. If the storm exits near Miami, seems we would get W/NW winds then, maybe causing the greatest bayside surge when the winds switch from S to W and NW.

BTW, I'm a few blocks from the National Park Service HQ here.