GFDL - ON TRACK OR ON CRACK??

#1 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:44 pm

Everybody has been praising the GFDL, now it has absolutely done complete turnaround. How about some expert analysis on why!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

#2 Postby **wsquared77** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:49 pm

Could you provide a link please? Thanks!

Zadok · #3 Postby **Zadok** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:50 pm

It looks good to me. :D There might be a change coming. We will see at the next model runs. Anything is better than the track they have now.

#4 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:56 pm

Blown_away wrote:Everybody has been praising the GFDL, now it has absolutely done complete turnaround. How about some expert analysis on why!

corrupted data that was ingested into the GFS run, the models are correct and see something, combination, i am sure NHC will have something to say at 5. local nws offices in miami and melbourne acknowledge the new runs and will be waiting to see what nhc says. we had a situation in the last year or two where gfs got some bad dropsonde data and one cycle of runs was discounted, it could be the case here.

thunderchief · #5 Postby **thunderchief** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:03 pm

the GFDL is initialized at 936mb... right. The GFDL is usually the best model though, so im not going to discount this entirely.

The 12Z GFS takes it across florida still.

#6 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:05 pm

jlauderdal

Thanks, that makes sense to me. I just can's see the NHC missing by that much, heck 5 days it's up in the NE last run and hanging out in the NW Caribbean now, huge discrepancy. But it's a hurricane and nothing is definite, except change.

Wacahootaman · #7 Postby **Wacahootaman** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:05 pm

Well, maybe their puters have been trying to follow Wilma's eye which has been jumping around like a Mexican jumping bean today

Seriously, for some reason, Wilma has not gained any lattitude like predicted.

I wonder if it stays in the Carribean will that front pick it up?

Time will tell

#8 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:07 pm

jlauderdal

Thanks, that makes sense to me. I just can's see the NHC missing by that much, heck 5 days it's up in the NE last run and hanging out in the NW Caribbean now, huge discrepancy. But it's a hurricane and nothing is definite, except change.

Zadok · #9 Postby **Zadok** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:07 pm

The 12Z GFS takes it across florida still.

But much later right? Anything can happen at that point.

jax · #10 Postby **jax** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:09 pm

thunderchief wrote:the GFDL is initialized at 936mb... right. The GFDL is usually the best model though, so im not going to discount this entirely.

The 12Z GFS takes it across florida still.

it does still take it accross Florida... but not untill Monday...
and after spending some time on the YP....

this is getting very interesting... very!

YP does NOT need a direct hit from this girl...

n o o d l z · #11 Postby **n o o d l z** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:15 pm

jax wrote:
thunderchief wrote:the GFDL is initialized at 936mb... right. The GFDL is usually the best model though, so im not going to discount this entirely.

The 12Z GFS takes it across florida still.

it does still take it accross Florida... but not untill Monday...
and after spending some time on the YP....

this is getting very interesting... very!

YP does NOT need a direct hit from this girl...

I don't think anyone does...

krysof · #12 Postby **krysof** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:24 pm

The Yucatan would get obliterated with Wilma if it heads there.

Jim Cantore · #13 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:40 pm

if Wilma hits the Yucatan it will be worse then gilbert

floridahurricaneguy · #14 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:44 pm

Weird. I am just concerned about that trough not being as strong as thought. Dont like still being in cone and not knowing, will it come closer or not. Oh boy! Long next couple days.

Matt

LanceW · #15 Postby **LanceW** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:54 pm

Well, we should know what the NHC thinks for the models within the hour. I imagine they will discuss the changes and reasons for/against making a track shift.

Gulfer · #16 Postby **Gulfer** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:55 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:Weird. I am just concerned about that trough not being as strong as thought. Dont like still being in cone and not knowing, will it come closer or not. Oh boy! Long next couple days.

Matt

If I'm not mistaken, Derrick said the weaker the trough the more SOUTH Wilma would go..I know it seems counter intuitive but I guess the theory would be that a strong trough would catch it and spin it up to the north faster.

Mississippi Storm Magnet · #17 Postby **Mississippi Storm Magnet** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:09 pm

jlauderdal wrote:corrupted data that was ingested into the GFS run

I ingested some corrupt data one day. Sat on the commode and said"GFDL and GFS" and other unintelligble phrases.

Sorry, I just trying to keep laughing with all this more bad news. I need to lay down a while after talking with roofers, builders, flood restoration, sheetrockers, electricians, etc. you name it.

Jim Cantore · #18 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:16 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:Weird. I am just concerned about that trough not being as strong as thought. Dont like still being in cone and not knowing, will it come closer or not. Oh boy! Long next couple days.

Matt

I can only Imagine

Its like an eternity to me and I'm not even in its path (yet)

Ivan Was the worst it was like waiting a year for it to make up its mind

Rita was bad for that too

Katrina was just a loooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnggggggggggggggggggggggggggg 24 hours

GFDL - ON TRACK OR ON CRACK??

GFDL - ON TRACK OR ON CRACK??

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