Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

[markymark8]

I just heard Mark Sudduth say a while ago while heading to Florida in his suv that Recon isnt able to give us all real data readouts in all areas in the storm. Some is estimated because Recon is scared to go through all of the storm. winds are 240mph in some areas that the plane would have to fly through. Anybody can u shed some light on this??? He read it off his pc that he gets his info from.

[cycloneye]

I haven't seen any information regarding that.

[truballer#1]

really?

[truballer#1]

really?

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 192017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/19:56:20Z
B. 17 deg 36 min N
083 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2152 m
D. 65 kt
E. 122 deg 010 nm
F. 285 deg 141 kt
G. 201 deg 002 nm
H. 892 mb
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 19 C/ 3051 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO5-10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 141 KT S QUAD 19:52:00 Z

[gotoman38]

I just heard Mark Sudduth say a while ago while heading to Florida in his suv that Recon isnt able to give us all real data readouts in all areas in the storm. Some is estimated because Recon is scared to go through all of the storm. winds are 240mph in some areas that the plane would have to fly through. Anybody can u shed some light on this??? He read it off his pc that he gets his info from.

The other thread says that it was just a lighthearted joke.

[Steve]

I've heard the opposite. The Air Force crews usually don't have a problem flying through big, large, mature, high-end storms because the windflows are predictable for the pilots. It's the smaller stuff that can be more dangerous for them.

Steve

[Stratosphere747]

Which models were the first to injest the NOAA info..

Could this explain the shift in the GFS?

[superfly]

L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO5-10

The secondary eyewall is 10 miles wide? Is this some sick joke? That's contracted more than almost all other storms' primary eyewall.

[gotoman38]

L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO5-10

The secondary eyewall is 10 miles wide? Is this some sick joke? That's contracted more than almost all other storms' primary eyewall.

That's *really* sick... the YUC better pray that this pinhole doesn't descide to swallow some sand!

[Solaris]

555
SXXX50 KNHC 192142
AF300 0824A WILMA HDOB 48 KNHC
2131 1723N 08406W 03048 5155 327 069 098 098 072 02941 0000000000
2131. 1724N 08404W 03039 5168 326 067 112 112 068 02918 0000000000
2132 1725N 08403W 03046 5177 326 066 116 116 068 02916 0000000000
2132. 1726N 08401W 03046 5186 325 059 122 114 060 02907 0000000000
2133 1727N 08400W 03046 5196 329 058 126 114 059 02897 0000000000
2133. 1728N 08358W 03046 5207 327 059 126 110 059 02887 0000000000
2134 1729N 08357W 03045 5219 324 058 132 106 059 02873 0000000000
2134. 1730N 08355W 03046 5231 321 054 136 102 054 02863 0000000000
2135 1731N 08354W 03045 5242 320 051 134 102 052 02851 0000000000
2135. 1732N 08352W 03044 5253 321 049 136 096 050 02838 0000000000
2136 1733N 08351W 03047 5264 318 046 134 084 048 02830 0000000000
2136. 1734N 08349W 03046 5278 315 052 140 080 054 02815 0000000000
2137 1735N 08348W 03046 5296 312 058 140 078 061 02797 0000000000
2137. 1736N 08346W 03051 5325 309 067 136 096 069 02773 0000000000
2138 1737N 08344W 03044 5369 302 076 132 124 081 02723 0000000000
2138. 1738N 08343W 03052 5444 293 095 134 134 102 02655 0000000000
2139 1740N 08342W 03057 5617 287 112 124 124 114 02486 0000000000
2139. 1741N 08341W 03011 5831 270 049 150 150 091 02226 0000110010
2140 1743N 08341W 02897 5885 099 013 174 174 024 02058 0000000000
2140. 1745N 08341W 02993 5828 081 080 168 168 118 02211 0000000000

Now they pinned down the center pretty nicely: 13/24 kt winds at 2058m, so central pressure should be around 885 mb.

[Scorpion]

Wow.

[fasterdisaster]

I can tell on satellite shes going through an ERC, but she looks better organized than at 2 o'clock.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

12 millibars above Tips...In really you should not compare the Atlantic to the western Pacific. I would think for its pressure Wilma was stronger then Tips.

[jpigott]

unflippen real. you mean to tell me this thing is going to peak twice at a lower pressure than Gilbert. How much longer is this plane going to be in the air, they better get another one out there this is history in the making, she's going to make a run at her own record

[Solaris]

007
SXXX50 KNHC 192152
AF300 0824A WILMA HDOB 49 KNHC
2141 1746N 08342W 02991 5630 079 139 126 126 143 02408 0000000000
2141. 1748N 08342W 03047 5488 082 127 116 116 133 02606 0000000000
2142 1749N 08342W 03059 5414 088 111 136 136 117 02691 0000000000
2142. 1749N 08341W 03050 5380 095 101 156 120 102 02717 0000000000
2143 1750N 08340W 03040 5372 104 099 156 120 101 02715 0000000000
2143. 1751N 08339W 03049 5344 112 093 148 122 095 02752 0000000000
2144 1751N 08338W 03041 5315 118 088 136 112 089 02772 0000000000
2144. 1753N 08337W 03045 5290 121 082 138 084 084 02802 0000000000
2145 1754N 08336W 03045 5270 125 075 138 080 077 02822 0000000000
2145. 1755N 08334W 03039 5255 127 070 140 078 071 02831 0000000000
2146 1756N 08333W 03049 5244 131 070 132 088 071 02853 0000000000
2146. 1757N 08332W 03043 5232 133 069 132 088 069 02859 0000000000
2147 1758N 08330W 03047 5221 131 069 116 104 070 02874 0000000000
2147. 1759N 08329W 03043 5208 130 078 108 108 083 02883 0000000000
2148 1800N 08328W 03045 5199 126 084 104 104 086 02894 0000000000
2148. 1801N 08327W 03047 5191 130 085 092 092 086 02904 0000000000
2149 1802N 08326W 03048 5175 133 089 092 092 089 02921 0000000000
2149. 1803N 08324W 03043 5162 136 093 094 094 093 02929 0000000000
2150 1804N 08323W 03046 5148 138 095 096 096 095 02946 0000000000
2150. 1806N 08322W 03042 5137 140 095 102 102 097 02953 0000000000

143 kt max.

Winds lower imo due to the stretching of the pressure gradient by the EWRC.

[Solaris]

297
UZNT13 KNHC 192154
XXAA 69227 99177 70837 04573 99898 25800 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85486 24007 18605 70177 17600 27572 88999 77999
31313 09608 82139
61616 AF300 0824A WILMA OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1773N08365W 2141 LST WND 061 MBL WND 17613
AEV 20507 DLM WND 19105 892768 WL150 17125 136 =
XXBB 69228 99177 70837 04573 00898 25800 11892 25601 22850 24007
33722 18815 44698 17400
21212 00898 ///// 11892 16627 22888 16629 33883 17117 44875 17116
55868 17609 66855 18609 77850 18605 88768 22591 99698 27572
31313 09608 82139
61616 AF300 0824A WILMA OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1773N08365W 2141 LST WND 061 MBL WND 17613
AEV 20507 DLM WND 19105 892768 WL150 17125 136 =

898 in eyewall

[Scorpion]

Wow, in the eyewall. This is going to be low.

[Solaris]

283
URNT12 KNHC 192158
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/21:39:30Z
B. 17 deg 42 min N
083 deg 41 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 223 deg 009 nm
F. 287 deg 114 kt
G. 203 deg 002 nm
H. 892 mb
I. 13 C/ 3064 m
J. 16 C/ 2962 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 25
MAX FL WIND 149 KT W QUAD 19:57:30 Z

they kept it at 892 mb, hmm. measurement at 2149m, sxxx had min at 20xxm and with that 898 eyewall, i would suspect central pressure at 885-890, but who cares, 892 still damn low, in fact, all day below 900 -- amazing.

[Brent]

ERC is done? Uh oh... I think 882 mb is in danger of not being the record.