BAMM & BAMD

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darinh
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BAMM & BAMD

#1 Postby darinh » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:59 pm

The 18Z runs are showing something very, VERY similar the GFDL.

:roll: :roll:
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n o o d l z
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#2 Postby n o o d l z » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:02 pm

Apparently, its because BAM and GFDL models are based off of the GFS, and the GFS has it stalling over the Yucatan. I'd wait for the 00z models before getting too excited.
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chris_fit
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#3 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:04 pm

I think we are better off ignoring the BAMM and BAMD models as they are not designed to handle troughs ridges very well, especially in the Gulf Of Mexico and Lat. above 20N.
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jax

#4 Postby jax » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:08 pm

This is Big... Big shift happening in the models.
I wonder what's going on...
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x-y-no
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#5 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:08 pm

The BAMs do not deal well with situations where there is significant interaction with mid-latitude features. I'd dismiss them at this point.

The GFDL needs to be taken seriously, but given the strong difference with earlier runs, I wouldn't jump on that bandwagon yet. Lets see what the next two runs do.
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TS Zack
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#6 Postby TS Zack » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:12 pm

The trend is your firend! :lol:

I would wait to go nuts at this point but they are definitely picking-up on something.
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N2Storms
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#7 Postby N2Storms » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:15 pm

STILL RELATIVELY
UNCERTAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THE LATEST
RUN OF THE GFS SLOWS THE HURRICANE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH IT LINGERING
NEAR THE YUCATAN THROUGH SUNDAY.



The NWS seems to be some credence to the GFS, however, they do go on to mention that the forecast track is still relatively the same, it's just slower than the previous forecasts have been...
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jax

#8 Postby jax » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:16 pm

TS Zack wrote:The trend is your firend! :lol:

I would wait to go nuts at this point but they are definitely picking-up on something.



NO !! I'm goin nut now! I'm not waiting!

:Pick:

anyway... this is very important and should not be disreagarded...
it's not an isolated model... they are starting to gang up on the
trend... again.... I wonder what's going on?
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