Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[jpigott]

I just heard on TWC thatWilmas pressure is slowly starting to drop again

not good news at all

Also have the Hurricane Hunters had any gusts over 200?

An ERWC where the pressure tops out at 892-894mb. Pure insanity. Good Lord, maybe Wilma has her sights set on Tip. And to tell you the truth, Wilma may have gotten into the 870s last night. Last recon was at 2am and they reported 882mb, the super/really/very deep convective CDO was in place until day break. Oh and isn't conveinent that Wilma wants to ramp up again just as we start to enter the nighttime convective maxima!! The Looney Tunes song is going off in my head again. It would almost be funny if i didn't live in SFLA

[Patrick99]

To my eye, it's just not gaining a whole lot of latitude. Maybe the models are catching something.

If I was a betting man, I'd bet that the models have overcooked this trough. You can't just yank a Cat. 4-5 up out of the deep Caribbean with some garden-variety mid-October trough, IMO.

When is this storm going to get some true northerly component?

I agree the models are too quick and are having a little trouble with such a strong storm and the ridge to the north. She appears to be making a wobbly, though steady track towards Mexico. I would not be surprised if she made it into Mexico, hung around and weakened and then as a weaker storm, finally a E to ENE trek and missed Florida.

That's going to be my bet - similar to Mitch. If it makes it further west into the Yucatan, and then impacts FL further south, big fat deal, because there won't be anything left but a weak TS at best.

[Brent]

That's going to be my bet - similar to Mitch. If it makes it further west into the Yucatan, and then impacts FL further south, big fat deal, because there won't be anything left but a weak TS at best.

Unless it stalls over the Yucatan ala Isidore, it's not going to weaken much. Mitch weakened because it stalled offshore with half it's convection over huge mountains.

[Jim Cantore]

This is in a simalar area as mitch and near the same time of year

It resembles Michelle when she first opened her eye I think

Look at a picture and see

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z WED OCT 19 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 892 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 84.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.2N 85.6W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 86.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.6N 86.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 27.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 36.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 83.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z WED OCT 19 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 892 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 84.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.2N 85.6W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 86.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.6N 86.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 27.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 36.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 83.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cjrciadt]

New windmap.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...
460 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 892 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[n o o d l z]

Even the NHC has this restrengthening.

[6SpeedTA95]

That's going to be my bet - similar to Mitch. If it makes it further west into the Yucatan, and then impacts FL further south, big fat deal, because there won't be anything left but a weak TS at best.

Unless it stalls over the Yucatan ala Isidore, it's not going to weaken much. Mitch weakened because it stalled offshore with half it's convection over huge mountains.

It could indeed hit the yucatan hard. I do not see a florida landfall above a cat3 though. Only way this would be possible would be if it skirted the tip and went through the keys, I could see the oustide chance of it being a 4, but I think we're looking at a cat2 or 3 at landfall.

[rockyman]

rut-roh! the 5pm disco is very disconcerting:

agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good
over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today. The
06z runs of the GFS...GFDL...and NOGAPS models accelerated Wilma
rapidly toward New England under the influence of a large low
pressure system in the Great Lakes region. All three of these
models have backed off of this solution...with the GFDL showing an
extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi
from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.
There is almost as much spread in the 5-day positions of the 12z
GFS ensemble members...which range from the Yucatan to well east of
the Delmarva Peninsula. What this illustrates is the extreme
sensitivity of Wilma's future track to its interaction with the
Great Lakes low. Over the past couple of days...Wilma has been
moving slightly to the left or south of the model guidance...and
the left-most of the guidance solutions are now showing Wilma
delaying or missing the connection with the low. I have slowed the
official forecast just a little bit at this time...but if Wilma
continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial
changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line.
Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the
timing...has decreased considerably.
The latest pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 892
mb...with peak 700 mb winds of 152 kt. The initial intensity is
lowered to 140 kt. Aircraft reports...as well as microwave and
conventional satellite imagery...indicate that the inner
5-mile-wide eye of Wilma is weakening within two outer eyewalls...
one 10 miles wide and another about 45 miles across. In the short
term...this means that the peak winds should decrease as the wind
field expands...but there should be ample time for Wilma to
reintensity before it approaches the Yucatan. With an increasing
possibility that there will be a considerable interaction with the
Yucatan...I have lowered the intensity forecast slightly in the
Gulf of Mexico.

[CronkPSU]

from the 5 pm discussion

with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi
from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.

LOL that is fantastic sarcasm

[nequad]

837
WTNT44 KNHC 192106
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892
MB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 140 KT. AIRCRAFT REPORTS...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE INNER
5-MILE-WIDE EYE OF WILMA IS WEAKENING WITHIN TWO OUTER EYEWALLS...
ONE 10 MILES WIDE AND ANOTHER ABOUT 45 MILES ACROSS. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THIS MEANS THAT THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE WIND
FIELD EXPANDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE TIME FOR WILMA TO
REINTENSITY BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN. WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE INTERACTION WITH THE
YUCATAN...I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.7N 83.7W 140 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 84.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.2N 85.6W 145 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 20.4N 86.2W 145 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.6N 86.3W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 27.5N 79.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 36.0N 70.0W 65 KT

[cjrciadt]

notice how much larger the cane force windfield has expanded.

[Canelaw99]

rut-roh! the 5pm disco is very disconcerting:

...but if Wilma
continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial
changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line.

What kind of changes would have to be made I wonder......?????? I know I've read on this board that if she moves further west, her turn would cause her to be further south??

[djtil]

Unless it stalls over the Yucatan ala Isidore, it's not going to weaken much

models are beginning to hint at a prolonged period of time over the yucatan as the steering currents break down after landfall and before she is picked up.

timing is of course everything but the chances of a stall near or over land definitely makes it very possible that significant weakening could occur after 48 hours.

im seriously starting to wonder about cozumel and cancun now.....a direct hit would be extreme.

[6SpeedTA95]

rut-roh! the 5pm disco is very disconcerting:

...but if Wilma
continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial
changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line.

What kind of changes would have to be made I wonder......?????? I know I've read on this board that if she moves further west, her turn would cause her to be further south??

Its dependant on how fast she moves

[tronbunny]

I get the feeling we're all at the point of scratching our heads...
The NHC is being conservative in changes.. because it does unsettle the public when there are wild swings in the forecasts.
Right now, it sounds like Max is saying "it go left, it can go right... we'll see when it starts to do one or the other"

It's rough when your data fails you!

[jpigott]

one things for sure, Wilma is going to need to gain some latitute here soon or else she will have a tough time avoiding landfall on the Yucatan peninsula

[Blown Away]

At 5pm on 10/17 the 48 hour NHC position: 17.7 / 84
At 5pm on 10/18 the 24 hour NHC postion: 18.2 / 83.5
At 5pm on 10/19 the current NHC postion: 17.7 / 83.7

Wilma is about 30 miles South and 12 miles West of
where she was supposed to be 24 hours ago. Almost
dead on from 48 hours ago.