Mayfield's Press Conference

[GalvestonDuck]

Listen to the Mayfield press conference live at 4:45 at http://www.970wfla.com

Thanks for the link. Much appreciated!

[McDowell Boricua]

Did Mayfield said a major shift in trajectory to the east?

[x-y-no]

Did Mayfield said a major shift in trajectory to the east?

No. He talked about the spread in the models, especially mentioning the GFDL, and how that is making the forecast extremely uncertain in the longer range. He said that because of that uncertainty, they've gone with pretty much the same track, up towards the NE tip of Yucatan by Friday, NE after that, but are making it slower.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Did Mayfield said a major shift in trajectory to the east?

i thought mayfield said something aboiut it possible landfall in the YP and if that happens then im hinkiing he said that central florida could be hit big time?????????????????????

[boca]

Do you think that theirs bad data in the Gfdl model this go around?

[Canelaw99]

Did Mayfield said a major shift in trajectory to the east?

i thought mayfield said something aboiut it possible landfall in the YP and if that happens then im hinkiing he said that central florida could be hit big time?????????????????????

No, he didn't say that. In fact, he said nothing about a specific landfall area at this time - he's cautioning everyone against that right now. He said "if I could give you an area, I would, but I can't right now". He said all of the areas in the cone shouldn't let their guards down right now.

[McDowell Boricua]

Thanks for the clarification x-y-no.

[PBGator]

Did Mayfield said a major shift in trajectory to the east?

i thought mayfield said something aboiut it possible landfall in the YP and if that happens then im hinkiing he said that central florida could be hit big time?????????????????????

I think the track if anything is shifting South according to the 5pm.

[terpfan]

We should lock one of these threads. This one started for the AM conference.

[jamima]

okay I'm alittle confused on what he said about the last model he showed did he basically mean that it could miss fl all together and go through the straits right? Or did he mean the storm is just gonna slow down and loop around down there then hit somewhere in fl? Can someone please explain. Thanks

[Agua]

okay I'm alittle confused on what he said about the last model he showed did he basically mean that it could miss fl all together and go through the straits right? Or did he mean the storm is just gonna slow down and loop around down there then hit somewhere in fl? Can someone please explain. Thanks

He said, essentially, given the divergence between the five-day models showing the storm anywhere from east of New England to Southwest tip of Cuba, that they have extremely low confidence in their new forecast track. As a compromise, in light of the uncertainty, they didn't change the general track, but slowed the forward movement down. The overall impression was that the newest track was not published because that's where they think it's going to go, but only because it was a conservative compromise based upon the huge divergence in significant models. He didn't say the storm was going anywhere: he emphasized that they do not know where it is going to go.

[karenfromheaven]

Found this on the website for Channel 10 news in Miami. He stated "models have forecasted waves of up to 30 feet in the open ocean that will hit the coast when storm moves ashore".

Hmm...now thats On TOP of the storm surge, right ?

Wave heights are specified as a measurement from the peak of the wave (its top) to its trough (the bottom). Therefore the maximum "splash height" if you will, is 1/2 the wave height plus the height of mean sea level. For example, if a storm brings in a 15 ft storm surge and 10 ft waves, the maximum height the water could reach is 15 + (10/2) = 20 ft.

This calculation is only valid in relatively deep water. As large ocean waves approach a coastline having a sloping continental shelf, the increasingly shallow water becomes unable to support large wave heights. The incoming wave slows down and rises up in height, finally to fall over in a crash. So 30-50 ft waves will rise up and break well before reaching land. The situation might be different for an isolated island or seamount. Nevertheless, even a breaking 30 ft wave will thow considerable water at a height well above the surge height.