Blitzer Says Mayfield standing by on CNN - Weather Bulletin

[scogor]

Agua, your summary is accurate. I just finished watching the entire conference on CNN and the track is basically the same just slowed down to reflect the uncertainties and divergence in the models. There is clearly less confidence in the track forecast then there was earlier today. Max Mayfield also stressed that the NHC could not keep the plane flying down there...so they took a "day off" and will fly down tomorrow. This will (hopefully) allow them to obtain the information the models and the NHC to more "comfortably" forecast the track.

[jax]

I apologize, I took it to mean the slower it moves..period.
Also, I don't see any changes in the official NHC graphics or advisories from 2pm.

the forward speed is slowed down... by about 6 hours...
a reference in the discussion also suggests that the track
may be slowed down more...

[TheShrimper]

Something is not being told here. You cannot slow the forward speed and not have a reflection on the models. The previous model runs and there output are based on certian weather parameters that are present at the time. So if one of the contributing factors is altered, it will change everything. If the speed is indeed slowing, then everything changes...the front is more southerly when it interacts with the storm. There is no way the track remains the same with such a vriable alteration. It cannot happen and they have to cover themselves over a few advisories, to accomodate the drastic change of thought. TheShrimper...back from suspension.

[Brent]

Yeah that.

[Canelaw99]

Welcome back Shrimper I think what you say is right - the models are run based on info. at the time. It will be VERY interesting to see the new runs tonight....

[TheShrimper]

Sorry, I meant to say you cannot slow down the forward speed and still retain the path spit out of previous model runs.

[TheShrimper]

Thanks Canelaw. Was down on Krome Sat. picking up some trees at local nurseries. Can't believe the debris is still piled high on the roadsides from Katrina. We stayed at the Super 8 and the tractor trailer hauling debris for FEMA were housed there. You all definately dont need 100 mph winds blowing that stuff around. Plus, I will be down there for the races in a month...dont want any monkey wrenches thrown into the mix. Maybe a beer or 2 at the Last Chance one day?

[Canelaw99]

Hard to believe it but there's still debris all over the county courtesy of Katrina - the *censored* LOL Anyway, no, none of us need that stuff blowing around, and I have construction going on across the lake which always means debris left to fly around

Last Chance is a great place, especially since it's around the corner from me - hubby and I will have to meet up with ya some time

[TheShrimper]

Count on it.

[Bgator]

For now i would stick with the current path and wait until the 00z models, if they still do this than maybe we can hope for it, but model shave bad runs!

[Brent]

For now i would stick with the current path and wait until the 00z models, if they still do this than maybe we can hope for it, but model shave bad runs!

I agree...

[Crankin]

Dennis Phillips met for ABC in Tampa said the trough has bypassed Wilma. The low has moved too fast and too ne to have as much an effect as expected.

[rjgator]

I can not believe that the richest country in the world can not have enough planes to collect data continuously from these storms. We can fly 100's or sorties a day in Iraq but don’t have enough planes and people to be able to collect enough weather data to keep our own citizens safe. Maybe the Feds need to start giving a little less to the rest of the world and a little more to the NHC to protect our shores from Nature or god for bid an enemy force. I understand that the pilots and Hurricane hunters need a break but why don't they have 100 planes with 200 crews doing everything they can to find out data for the model runs. It is absolutely absurd.
Edited for Typos

[floridahurricaneguy]

Dennis Phillips met for ABC in Tampa said the trough has bypassed Wilma. The low has moved too fast and too ne to have as much an effect as expected.

that means?

[Brent]

Dennis Phillips met for ABC in Tampa said the trough has bypassed Wilma. The low has moved too fast and too ne to have as much an effect as expected.

Uh... the trough isn't even to the Southeast yet. It's way back west. It has not bypassed it.

[Crankin]

It means more uncertainty. He did refer to their viper or titan model showing it stalling over Yucatan and perhaps weakening substantially before going ne.

[Scorpion]

It means more uncertainty. He did refer to their viper or titan model showing it stalling over Yucatan and perhaps weakening substantially before going ne.

Must be based on the GFS as well.

[margaritabeach]

I can not believe that the richest country in the world can not have enough planes to collect data continuously from these storms. We can fly 100's or sorties a day in Iraq but don’t have enough planes and people to be able to collect enough weather data to keep our own citizens safe. Maybe the Feds need to start giving a little less to the rest of the world and a little more to the NHC to protect our shores from Nature or god for bid an enemy force. I understand that the pilots and Hurricane hunters need a break but why don't they have 100 planes with 200 crews doing everything they can to find out data for the model runs. It is absolutely absurd.
Edited for Typos

word

[Crankin]

Yeh, I think him and his titan are hugging the gfs.
Is it really a bad run?
He said it missed the trough because the low is going too far ne to affect it much.

[markymark8]

Agua, your summary is accurate. I just finished watching the entire conference on CNN and the track is basically the same just slowed down to reflect the uncertainties and divergence in the models. There is clearly less confidence in the track forecast then there was earlier today. Max Mayfield also stressed that the NHC could not keep the plane flying down there...so they took a "day off" and will fly down tomorrow. This will (hopefully) allow them to obtain the information the models and the NHC to more "comfortably" forecast the track.

That is pretty sad uno. We have to take a day off because the NHC doesnt have the funding. Do u all realize that if they could fly the Gulfstream jet all the time during missions with these monster type Hurricanes they would have most of these storm tracks nailed maybe even less than 20 miles at landfall. What a shame huh guys