Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[x-y-no]

18Z GFS continued ...

Leaving the NE tip of Yucatan at 72 hour:




Center of channel moving ENE in the direction of western Cuba at 78 hours.

[skysummit]

How could it turn north anytime soon with all that dry air heading south? There's a north to south flow in the eastern gulf right now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFS rolling out.

Takes it just barely north of due west for the first 24 hours, more NW following that.

Onshore in NE Yucatan at 48 hours:




Steering looks pretty weak at that point:

This is going to be runn off the 12Z no? Which would render it useless as the 12...?

[Scorpion]

Yes. Wait for the 0z.

[x-y-no]

This is going to be runn off the 12Z no? Which would render it useless as the 12...?

IIRC, the off-hour runs do depend in some part on the preceding runs. Maybe one of the pros can correct me if I'm wrong.

Still, this does include updated observations, so if it's still getting a similar result, that would lend confidence.

I wouldn't say we can simply decide the 12Z run was "useless" though. And if the 0Z run follows suit, that would be a big improvement in confidence.

[Bgator]

Yes. Wait for the 0z.

I agree befor making any rash decisions wait of r00z models to come out!

[Bocadude85]

NOUS42 KWNO 191513
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1513 UTC WED OCT 19 2005

THE 12Z NAM IS COMPLETE. THE GFS HAS STARTED WITH 30
CANADIAN...12 MEXICAN AND 8 CARIBBEAN STATIONS IN FOR THE
DUMP.

12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - 10145...UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NKX/72293 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM/GFS.

THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF WILMA FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.

CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP

this would mess the runs up wouldnt it?

[x-y-no]

18Z GFS continued:

96 hours - offshore just NE of Havana:

[floridahurricaneguy]

So 18z models coming out?

Matt

[Brent]

Yep...

[yzerfan]

You know you've been reading these things too long when you see:

with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi
from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.

and find yourself going "yep, it's gotta be a Franklin forecast" and indeed it is. He's the one most likely to get funny or sarcastic in the discos, and it makes me wonder if he's the one leaving the whoopee cushions on Avila's chair.

[f5]

how small was TIP's eye when he was 870mb?

[tracyswfla]

Yep...

When will they be done?

[Brent]

8pm Sunday... near Key West:

[Canelaw99]

He's the one most likely to get funny or sarcastic in the discos, and it makes me wonder if he's the one leaving the whoopee cushions on Avila's chair.

Now that visual just cracks me up! LOL

[fasterdisaster]

It looks like the pressure will start coming down again.

[Brent]

Yep...

When will they be done?

Well it's already out to when it's going through the Keys so the parts we're interested in will be done very soon.

It goes out to 384 hours though...

[Scorpion]

18z makes more sense than 12z. No more stall. IMO the idea of it pulling a Mitch was a bit premature.

[Brent]

18z makes more sense than 12z. No more stall. IMO the idea of it pulling a Mitch was a bit premature.

Yeah this run looks better although I think it's a bit too slow and too far south.

[Trader Ron]

I have NEVER been a model "Hugger" until 24-36 hours before landfall. I look at the cone and only the cone.

When you are dealing with a slow moving cyclone, troughs, sharp turns it's an extremely tough forecast.

For all we know , the models might verify in the end and Wilma ends up making landfall in SW Florida.

Stay tuned.