Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#1301 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:59 pm

18Z GFS continued ...

Leaving the NE tip of Yucatan at 72 hour:

Image


Center of channel moving ENE in the direction of western Cuba at 78 hours.
Last edited by x-y-no on Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#1302 Postby skysummit » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:00 pm

How could it turn north anytime soon with all that dry air heading south? There's a north to south flow in the eastern gulf right now.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#1303 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:00 pm

x-y-no wrote:18Z GFS rolling out.

Takes it just barely north of due west for the first 24 hours, more NW following that.

Onshore in NE Yucatan at 48 hours:

Image


Steering looks pretty weak at that point:

Image
Image



This is going to be runn off the 12Z no? Which would render it useless as the 12...?
0 likes   

Scorpion

#1304 Postby Scorpion » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:02 pm

Yes. Wait for the 0z.
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#1305 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:08 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
This is going to be runn off the 12Z no? Which would render it useless as the 12...?


IIRC, the off-hour runs do depend in some part on the preceding runs. Maybe one of the pros can correct me if I'm wrong.

Still, this does include updated observations, so if it's still getting a similar result, that would lend confidence.

I wouldn't say we can simply decide the 12Z run was "useless" though. And if the 0Z run follows suit, that would be a big improvement in confidence.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bgator
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 649
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:29 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#1306 Postby Bgator » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:09 pm

Scorpion wrote:Yes. Wait for the 0z.


I agree befor making any rash decisions wait of r00z models to come out!
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

#1307 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:10 pm

NOUS42 KWNO 191513
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1513 UTC WED OCT 19 2005

THE 12Z NAM IS COMPLETE. THE GFS HAS STARTED WITH 30
CANADIAN...12 MEXICAN AND 8 CARIBBEAN STATIONS IN FOR THE
DUMP.

12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - 10145...UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NKX/72293 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM/GFS.

THERE WERE NO DROPSONDE OBS IN SUPPORT OF WILMA FOR THE 12Z
NAM/GFS.

CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP

this would mess the runs up wouldnt it?
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#1308 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:11 pm

18Z GFS continued:

96 hours - offshore just NE of Havana:

Image
0 likes   

floridahurricaneguy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 312
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:37 pm
Location: Tampa,FL
Contact:

#1309 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:12 pm

So 18z models coming out?

Matt
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38094
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#1310 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:14 pm

Yep...
0 likes   
#neversummer

yzerfan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 588
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:09 pm
Location: Niceville, FL

#1311 Postby yzerfan » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:14 pm

You know you've been reading these things too long when you see:

with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi
from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.


and find yourself going "yep, it's gotta be a Franklin forecast" and indeed it is. He's the one most likely to get funny or sarcastic in the discos, and it makes me wonder if he's the one leaving the whoopee cushions on Avila's chair.
0 likes   

f5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:29 pm
Location: Waco,tx

#1312 Postby f5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:16 pm

how small was TIP's eye when he was 870mb?
0 likes   

tracyswfla
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 792
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
Location: Rochester, NY

#1313 Postby tracyswfla » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:16 pm

Brent wrote:Yep...


When will they be done?
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38094
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#1314 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:16 pm

8pm Sunday... near Key West:

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2127
Age: 48
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#1315 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:17 pm

yzerfan wrote:He's the one most likely to get funny or sarcastic in the discos, and it makes me wonder if he's the one leaving the whoopee cushions on Avila's chair.


Now that visual just cracks me up! LOL
0 likes   

fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#1316 Postby fasterdisaster » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:17 pm

It looks like the pressure will start coming down again.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38094
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#1317 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:17 pm

tracyswfla wrote:
Brent wrote:Yep...


When will they be done?


Well it's already out to when it's going through the Keys so the parts we're interested in will be done very soon.

It goes out to 384 hours though... :P
0 likes   
#neversummer

Scorpion

#1318 Postby Scorpion » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:18 pm

18z makes more sense than 12z. No more stall. IMO the idea of it pulling a Mitch was a bit premature.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38094
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#1319 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:18 pm

Scorpion wrote:18z makes more sense than 12z. No more stall. IMO the idea of it pulling a Mitch was a bit premature.


Yeah this run looks better although I think it's a bit too slow and too far south.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Trader Ron
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 928
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 7:25 pm
Location: Naples,Fl
Contact:

#1320 Postby Trader Ron » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:19 pm

I have NEVER been a model "Hugger" until 24-36 hours before landfall. I look at the cone and only the cone.

When you are dealing with a slow moving cyclone, troughs, sharp turns it's an extremely tough forecast.

For all we know , the models might verify in the end and Wilma ends up making landfall in SW Florida.

Stay tuned.

:D
0 likes   


Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests