Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

DESTRUCTION5 · #1341 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:29 pm

Scorpion wrote:
wxwonder12 wrote:Local mets in Palm Beach are focusing on the great news that the models are changing and how it will affect the current track thinking.
Are they not realizing about the model run "error" or are they really that the current model runs are going to confirm??? ( the ones that changed anyway) any opinions

I agree. The 18z GFS is not nearly as slow as 12z and brings it to S FL as a formidable system on Sunday.

GFS is starting to smell reality again...00Z may bring it back

Website · #1342 Postby **Brent** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:29 pm

Bgator wrote:When will the new GFDl come out?! I Know when the BaM's Do but anyone have a site for GFDL~!?

It runs at 8pm...

Foladar0 · #1343 Postby **Foladar0** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:30 pm

How are these new models and/or the current track in regards to Homestead / Florida City? Someone told me that they heard we would have to evacuate but that doesn't make too much sense. Soooo confused.

Website · #1344 Postby **Brent** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:31 pm

Foladar0 wrote:How are these new models and/or the current track in regards to Homestead / Florida City? Someone told me that they heard we would have to evacuate but that doesn't make too much sense. Soooo confused.

Well the 18z GFS takes it right over you as a major hurricane.

Bgator · #1345 Postby **Bgator** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:31 pm

Foladar0 wrote:How are these new models and/or the current track in regards to Homestead / Florida City? Someone told me that they heard we would have to evacuate but that doesn't make too much sense. Soooo confused.

Well if the GFS model is a omen of the new models It takes a strong cane into miami dade county, some evacuation would be ordered!!? :/

#1346 Postby **Trader Ron** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:31 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:I have NEVER been a model "Hugger" until 24-36 hours before landfall. I look at the cone and only the cone.

When you are dealing with a slow moving cyclone, troughs, sharp turns it's an extremely tough forecast.

For all we know , the models might verify in the end and Wilma ends up making landfall in SW Florida.

Stay tuned.

I don't "hug" the models either. I do study their output, and in particular the trends in their output though.

I would be lying if I said i don't look at them.

:lol:

krysof · #1347 Postby **krysof** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:32 pm

also, I think Wilma is weakening according to the latest ir loop

#1348 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:32 pm

I haven't heard anything for this area yet Foladar. I know that they're planning on the mandatory evacs for the Keys at some point tomorrow. I think that Miami-Dade EOC is just waiting until there's a little more confidence where Wilma is going first, because as the NBC met said, people "don't know where to evacuate to" at this point. Smart in my opinion. :wink:

x-y-no · #1349 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:32 pm

Landfall of the phased system in Canada just NE of the Maine border.

I'm taking a break. Back later tonight.

Jan

krysof · #1350 Postby **krysof** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:32 pm

also, I think Wilma is weakening according to the latest ir loop, its CDO is much smaller and weaker

#1351 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:32 pm

I think they are giving out falts hope here. This has done this before where all the models stay the same for a few days then it changes. But after a day it goes right back to the way it was. watch and see by Friday you will see it all come back together.

But lets hope it just stays put and dies.

Scorpion · #1352 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:33 pm

Needs to take a HUGE jog west to make the next forecast point. A nice NW motion right now. Could hit the Channel after all.

#1353 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:34 pm

Brent wrote:
I was all certain in the track til about an hour ago... and now I just don't know.

This is me trying to figure out what the heck Wilma's gonna do.

BRING ON THE WINTER.

Brent, I never thought I'd hear YOU say that, LOL! Just goes to show what a truly nerve-wracking year this has been!! :eek:

#1354 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:36 pm

x-y-no wrote:I'm taking a break. Back later tonight.

Jan

You're able to walk away from the computer? :eek:

My hero!!! :notworthy:

#1355 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:36 pm

Scorpion wrote:Needs to take a HUGE jog west to make the next forecast point. A nice NW motion right now. Could hit the Channel after all.

I agree. I am sorta noticing that too.

<RICKY>

Website · #1356 Postby **Brent** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:37 pm

bvigal wrote:
Brent wrote:
I was all certain in the track til about an hour ago... and now I just don't know.

This is me trying to figure out what the heck Wilma's gonna do.

BRING ON THE WINTER.

Brent, I never thought I'd hear YOU say that, LOL! Just goes to show what a truly nerve-wracking year this has been!!

I always want winter... but only if it involves lots of snow. :lol:

Bgator · #1357 Postby **Bgator** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:38 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Needs to take a HUGE jog west to make the next forecast point. A nice NW motion right now. Could hit the Channel after all.

I agree. I am sorta noticing that too.

<RICKY>

I see that to i think that GFDL model was a mistake...LOL!

Bgator · #1358 Postby **Bgator** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:39 pm

krysof wrote:also, I think Wilma is weakening according to the latest ir loop

Eye Wall Replacement Cycle, i would guess/...

krysof · #1359 Postby **krysof** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:42 pm

Bgator wrote:
krysof wrote:also, I think Wilma is weakening according to the latest ir loop

Eye Wall Replacement Cycle, i would guess/...

Didn't someone say it was done.

Website · #1360 Postby **Brent** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:43 pm

It's not an ERC... that just got completed.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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