Could this be potential Alpha?! Amazing convection burst....

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skysummit
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#21 Postby skysummit » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:26 pm

curtadams wrote:No chance of cyclone development there. It's tropical moisture passing under strong upper-level winds from the NW. You can see clouds skidding ESE and when the convection passes underneath, it goes BOOM because the upper air is cold. The upper winds are producing strong shear (semi-quantitated here http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html ) and that nixes any chance of tropical development. It's more like a front.


That is what Wilma was at one time also.
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:59 pm

Could we see another Caribbean development down the road?!?!
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#23 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:55 am

I don't think anybody's expecting this to develop right now....more like once Wilma's out of the picture and this one's where Wilma is now...climatology does favor it. 2001 had both Iris and Michelle bomb over this same general area in October.

Way too early though.
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#24 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:42 am

Dr. Jonah Rainwater wrote:I don't think anybody's expecting this to develop right now....more like once Wilma's out of the picture and this one's where Wilma is now...climatology does favor it. 2001 had both Iris and Michelle bomb over this same general area in October.

Way too early though.


The potential "Alpha" area is looking very interesting this morning, more consolidated convection.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:49 am

Buoys near the system show winds around 20 - 22 knots, but pressures are not decreasing, actually, they are rising. Nevertheless, the system looks much better and may have a shot in the Caribbean.
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#26 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:49 am

WOW :eek:

So far upper level winds are not favorable for development though.

Image
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#27 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:00 am

Image
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#28 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:01 am

Definitely a "Bear Watch." :)
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#29 Postby no advance » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:06 am

Look at the vis. banding SW of the system.
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#30 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:07 am

Funny thing is this thread would be 20 pages long if there were no Wilma...Looks aweful good to me...
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#31 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:08 am

no advance wrote:Look at the vis. banding SW of the system.


It does look quite impressive, but they're still saying upper level winds are not favorable for development. I remember when they said that about Wilma.

Image
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#32 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:09 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Funny thing is this thread would be 20 pages long if there were no Wilma...Looks aweful good to me...


That's the truth! This blob is looking very nice --- persistent.
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#33 Postby x-y-no » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:15 am

There is a wave axis there, and there's strong divergence aloft and decent convergence at the surface.

But the upper-air environment is very hostile up ahead, in part due to Wilma's outflow. That would have to change before this has a shot. Could be a candidate for development in the westerm Caribbean once Wilma is off the east coast.
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#34 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:08 am

Wow, not bad. Bear watch initiated.
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#35 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:13 am

Oooohhhh...pretttttyyyyy :lol:

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#36 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:28 am


ABNT20 KNHC 201524
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

They are not bullish about it.
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#37 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:30 am

cycloneye wrote:
ABNT20 KNHC 201524
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



They are not bullish about it.


Hmmmm.....tomorrow is Friday. What about Saturday or Sunday boss? :lol:
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#38 Postby Aimless » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:35 am

Hurricanehink wrote:Wow, not bad. Bear watch initiated.


Ok

[img]Image[/img][/img]
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#39 Postby schmita » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:55 am

Well,
We are watching this for sure!!
Irina in cloudy Sint Maarten !
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#40 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:22 am

Won't be terribly concerned unless it persists for the next 48hrs or so.
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