Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

#1441 Postby **cjrciadt** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:55 pm

all the models back on the NE track again. :eek:

johngaltfla · #1442 Postby **johngaltfla** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:04 pm

What the heck is going on with the LBAR and A98E??????? :eek:

#1443 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:07 pm

johngaltfla wrote:What the heck is going on with the LBAR and A98E???????

Although the LBAR really isn't good in this situation, it's the closest to my thinking Wilma will go. The A98E is not really a model...it's more of a statistical "model".

johngaltfla · #1444 Postby **johngaltfla** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:12 pm

skysummit wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:What the heck is going on with the LBAR and A98E???????

Although the LBAR really isn't good in this situation, it's the closest to my thinking Wilma will go. The A98E is not really a model...it's more of a statistical "model".

I'll bite. Why do you think the LBAR is a good shot for a final path? Would love to hear it, because it could mean even more travel for me tommorrow.... :eek:

#1445 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:15 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
skysummit wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:What the heck is going on with the LBAR and A98E???????

Although the LBAR really isn't good in this situation, it's the closest to my thinking Wilma will go. The A98E is not really a model...it's more of a statistical "model".

I'll bite. Why do you think the LBAR is a good shot for a final path? Would love to hear it, because it could mean even more travel for me tommorrow....

LOL....I'm not saying the LBAR is good for this storm. I'm no met either so don't take me seriously. It's just 2 days ago I said Wilma would make landfall at Cedar Key, Fl. I couldn't see something of this power making such a sharp turn, and I couldn't see such a strong trough digging down. I see a trough that will pull it north...gradually. It will cross the Yucatan at some point, exit into the gulf, and turn north then northeast toward the Big Bend area.

NONE of the models ever showed this...it's just what my stubborn mind is thinking so please do not take this seriously

If I'm wrong....that was pretty much a given, BUT, if I'm right, I'll look GREAT! :lol:

MiamiensisWx · #1446 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:HURRICANE WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051020 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051020 0000 051020 1200 051021 0000 051021 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 84.0W 18.9N 85.3W 19.9N 86.6W 20.8N 87.9W
BAMM 18.0N 84.0W 18.8N 85.5W 19.7N 86.9W 20.4N 88.0W
A98E 18.0N 84.0W 18.8N 85.2W 19.8N 86.4W 20.9N 87.3W
LBAR 18.0N 84.0W 19.0N 85.4W 20.4N 86.7W 22.0N 87.2W
SHIP 140KTS 139KTS 143KTS 146KTS
DSHP 140KTS 139KTS 143KTS 146KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051022 0000 051023 0000 051024 0000 051025 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.2N 88.6W 21.1N 88.6W 21.0N 86.9W 27.2N 78.0W
BAMM 20.6N 88.5W 19.8N 87.5W 20.5N 84.8W 27.4N 75.9W
A98E 21.6N 88.1W 24.0N 86.7W 27.0N 82.4W 39.5N 74.3W
LBAR 23.9N 87.0W 30.6N 80.5W 39.5N 62.8W 35.7N 55.4W
SHIP 142KTS 117KTS 79KTS 49KTS
DSHP 142KTS 117KTS 62KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 84.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 82.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 81.8W
WNDCUR = 140KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 150KT
CENPRS = 892MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 110NM RD34NW = 150NM

00:00z BAM Model Guidance

Interesting that the SHIP guidance takes it from near 145KT at 60 hours down to 120KT at 72 hours. Even with shear picking up, it seems like it may be a bit too fast and too sudden. Does this mean that SHIP is now forecasting landfall near 140KT? Looks like so...

Website · #1447 Postby **Brent** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:27 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Interesting that the SHIP guidance takes it from near 145KT at 60 hours down to 120KT at 72 hours. Even with shear picking up, it seems like it may be a bit too fast and too sudden. Does this mean that SHIP is now forecasting landfall near 140KT? Looks like so...

Uh no... and 25 kt in 24 hours could easily happen. I've seen storms go down a lot more than that.

The 72-hour position is still well offshore.

#1448 Postby **joseph01** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:30 pm

It may just be my limited time of observing hurricanes, but does anyone else wonder about how odd it is, that Wilma has maintained such a teeny- tiny eye for so long? Is this as weird as I see it? What kind of storm is this?

chrisnnavarre · #1449 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:30 pm

skysummit wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:[quote="skysummitAlthough the LBAR really isn't good in this situation, it's the closest to my
LOL....I'm not saying the LBAR is good for this storm. I'm no met either so don't take me seriously. It's just 2 days ago I said Wilma would make landfall at Cedar Key, Fl. I couldn't see something of this power making such a sharp turn, and I couldn't see such a strong trough digging down. I see a trough that will pull it north...gradually. It will cross the Yucatan at some point, exit into the gulf, and turn north then northeast toward the Big Bend area.

NONE of the models ever showed this...it's just what my stubborn mind is thinking so please do not take this seriously If I'm wrong....that was pretty much a given, BUT, if I'm right, I'll look GREAT!

I don't think your wrong at all. As a matter of fact I think your right, and I think the furthest south this thing will come into Florida will be Tampa. I just cannot see a turn that sharp for a storm this strong trying to climb poleward. But I guess we'll see. Call it seaman's eye if you will.

:wink:

artist · #1450 Postby **artist** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:36 pm

anyone have real experience with the typhoons of the paicfic? do they have eyes like this?

chrisnnavarre · #1451 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:42 pm

joseph01 wrote:It may just be my limited time of observing hurricanes, but does anyone else wonder about how odd it is, that Wilma has maintained such a teeny- tiny eye for so long? Is this as weird as I see it? What kind of storm is this?

It's the devil's storm......."give me what I want, and I'll go away"...

Josephine96 · #1452 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:43 pm

If this darn thing ends up coming on shore near Tampa, the entire Central Fla area will get blasted.. That would be an ugly situation..

raisinsnacks · #1453 Postby **raisinsnacks** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:44 pm

Amateur Opinion...Don't Listen to it!

All of that dry air from the north and west is starting to flatten her western edge. The same thing happened to both Katrina and Rita when they went from Cat 5 to 3. There's also a large pocket of dry air trying to wrap around from the southeast, although it's still a long way from the core. This could be somewhat of an illusion due to the possible ERC.

It is possible that the ERC (a four-letter word to the pro mets here, I know) that may or may not have started earlier today is now starting to really affect Wilma's structure. You can tell on the infrared that the inner and outer eyewalls have been battling each other all day, and that the eye itself, although its always been tiny, is becoming much less distinct.

I doubt that Wilma will be a Cat 5 when we wake up in the morning. However, maybe by tomorrow evening, it could restrengthen again before hitting either the Gulf or the Yucatan.

#1454 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:47 pm

raisinsnacks wrote:Amateur Opinion...Don't Listen to it!

All of that dry air from the north and west is starting to flatten her western edge. The same thing happened to both Katrina and Rita when they went from Cat 5 to 3. There's also a large pocket of dry air trying to wrap around from the southeast, although it's still a long way from the core. This could be somewhat of an illusion due to the possible ERC.

It is possible that the ERC (a four-letter word to the pro mets here, I know) that may or may not have started earlier today is now starting to really affect Wilma's structure. You can tell on the infrared that the inner and outer eyewalls have been battling each other all day, and that the eye itself, although its always been tiny, is becoming much less distinct.

I doubt that Wilma will be a Cat 5 when we wake up in the morning. However, maybe by tomorrow evening, it could restrengthen again before hitting either the Gulf or the Yucatan.

I LOVE your name :clap:

CHRISTY · #1455 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:48 pm

mtm4319 · #1456 Postby **mtm4319** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:51 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The Caymans are just getting hammered. The cold red cloud tops, with the occasionaly gray, have been sitting over the islands for the past 6 to 8 hours.

hicksta · #1457 Postby **hicksta** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 8:52 pm

Gilbert and this storm Wilma.. Both had very distinct eyes. These two storms are at 1&2 on the strongest ever storms... (pressure wise) Althought the eye is very smal

#1458 Postby **xraymike1** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:06 pm

My Dad told me almost 30 years ago that any storm that hits Palm Beach County will pass over or near Swan Island. Following almost all of the storm tracks this matches pretty well. I am watching closely but have about 80% of my shutters up and waiting to see what the 0z tracks show.

#1459 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:06 pm

#1460 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:07 pm

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

Swan Island

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