Just my opinion what do you think?

[Jim Cantore]

I think by looking at IR/water vaper and so on that Wilma is going to try to bottom out again overnight

She looks to be tightening up in overall size a little bit and if it ends the ERC soon enough I think she'll try to blow before she races off north and east.

Just a observation

[Jim Cantore]

heres a look

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sat.irE4_an.gif

[hicksta]

The dry air is effecting the storm. You can clearly see once her bands reach around the tip of cuba they die off...

[Josephine96]

You could be right, but at 160.. she would have to probably get up to around 200, and at that strong.. i think she'd begin to rip herself apart..

[Jim Cantore]

I think she may try to get back to 175 but with something like this thats a bomb considering the destruction its capable of already now

[skysummit]

I see that dry air you all are talking about, but I don't believe that is going to affect her much. I don't think she's weakening either. I see her CDO gettin much more pronounced than it was earlier.

[n o o d l z]

It will not see category 5 again...dry air is killing it now, and it'll only get worse. I want to see 870mb just as much as anyone else, but if you can't see this storm is falling apart, then you're ignoring the obvious.

[skysummit]

It will not see category 5 again...dry air is killing it now, and it'll only get worse. I want to see 870mb just as much as anyone else, but if you can't see this storm is falling apart, then you're ignoring the obvious.

Not ignoring the obvious...just stating it. This storm is not a weakening storm, not yet. Plus, what do you mean it will not see Cat 5 again? It's a Cat 5 right now.

[Jim Cantore]

I dont want to see 870mb in fact thats the last thing I want

that would boost its chances at hitting as a 5

It might try to bump up again but its got little time before its interfered with

[krysof]

It will not see category 5 again...dry air is killing it now, and it'll only get worse. I want to see 870mb just as much as anyone else, but if you can't see this storm is falling apart, then you're ignoring the obvious.

dry air never stopped it before, I mean it had been encountering dry for its entire life

[n o o d l z]

How can you say its not a weakening storm?

- the cold cloud tops we saw maxing out the IR 12 hours ago are gone
- the eye is no longer symmetrical, and its lost its definition
- the outflow is majorly being hindered by dry air, it will only be a matter of time before that dry air gets sucked into the core

The 11pm update may hold it at category 5, for the sole fact they don't have recon to back it up. But as soon as that recon plane makes it out there tonight, it will be a category 4, and I'd put money on it.

[skysummit]

How can you say its not a weakening storm?

- the cold cloud tops we saw maxing out the IR 12 hours ago are gone
- the eye is no longer symmetrical, and its lost its definition
- the outflow is majorly being hindered by dry air, it will only be a matter of time before that dry air gets sucked into the core

The 11pm update may hold it at category 5, for the sole fact they don't have recon to back it up. But as soon as that recon plane makes it out there tonight, it will be a category 4, and I'd put money on it.

Dude...it will not hold its intensity forever. It will fluctuate. It will not keep those cold cloudtops forever, they will fluctuate. This is what's happening right now. Dry air has always been around it. If there was shear involved, I'd say yes, it's probably weakening, but this dry air hasn't affected it before and it will not start tonight.

[Jim Cantore]

How can you say its not a weakening storm?

- the cold cloud tops we saw maxing out the IR 12 hours ago are gone
- the eye is no longer symmetrical, and its lost its definition
- the outflow is majorly being hindered by dry air, it will only be a matter of time before that dry air gets sucked into the core

The 11pm update may hold it at category 5, for the sole fact they don't have recon to back it up. But as soon as that recon plane makes it out there tonight, it will be a category 4, and I'd put money on it.

3 letters

E R C

[n o o d l z]

An ERC does not cause the outer bands of a storm to be sheared off. Earlier today, I believed it probably would have time to intensify, and it was just undergoing some fluctuations. But now, seeing the latest IR images, there's no way. Sorry guys, come back in 3 hours after recon info comes in, and see if you can say the same thing.

[NCHurricane]

How can you say its not a weakening storm?

- the cold cloud tops we saw maxing out the IR 12 hours ago are gone
- the eye is no longer symmetrical, and its lost its definition
- the outflow is majorly being hindered by dry air, it will only be a matter of time before that dry air gets sucked into the core

The 11pm update may hold it at category 5, for the sole fact they don't have recon to back it up. But as soon as that recon plane makes it out there tonight, it will be a category 4, and I'd put money on it.

3 letters

E R C

Y E P

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[Jim Cantore]

bands break off of hurricanes

if it was weakening the pressure would be rising but it hasnt moved in 6 hours

[n o o d l z]

bands break off of hurricanes

if it was weakening the pressure would be rising but it hasnt moved in 6 hours

Because the last recon was 6 hours ago...like I said, come back when the recon info starts coming in. I wouldn't be surprised to see 900+.

[skysummit]

Even if it is 900+, that does not mean it's "falling apart". I highly doubt it'll still be below 900. If it is, I'll be amazed.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Its clearly going through a ERC is thats why it looks the way it does! Just give it time it will finish the ERC and might try to deeping again!

[mtm4319]

I agree that it'll be a cat 4 the next time recon gets in there... my guess is 145-150mph with pressure of 905-910mb. Remember last night it was 150mph with a 901mb pressure.