Cat 5s are wierd they go up and down and seem to go through more frequent ERC's
why is that anyway?
Just my opinion what do you think?
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markymark8
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The outflow is not near as good to me especially to the northwest side . She is becoming more longated instead of oval shaped which is a sure sign of weakening. She will be lucky to be a 3 at landfall in Florida. There will be alot of dry air and shearing winds to demote her bigtime. There will be 2 stories to her . The one where she was the strongest recorded in the Caribbean and made history and when she enters the Gulf and becomes very disorganized and weakens fast to a strong cat 2 or 3 and wont end up being anything compared to Charley hitting the US. As I was just finishing this blog Mark Sudduth is saying there is alot of dry air hurting her right now.
Last edited by markymark8 on Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tri-State_1925
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n o o d l z
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krysof
markymark8 wrote:The outflow is not near as good to me especially to the northwest side . She is becoming more longated instead of oval shaped which is a sure sign of weakening. She will be lucky to be a 3 at landfall in Florida. There will be alot of dry air and shearing winds to demote her bigtime. There will be 2 stories to her . The one where she was the strongest recorded in the Caribbean and made history and when she enters the Gulf and becomes very disorganized and weakens fast to a strong cat 2 or 3 and wont end up being anything compared to Charley hitting the US. As I was just finishing this blog Mark Sudduth is saying there is alot of dry air hurting her right now.
The word "crow" comes to mind
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skysummit
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n o o d l z wrote:skysummit wrote:Well, she's "weakened" too 155mph, but her pressure is still crazy...894mb. The inner eyewall should start to erode soon, if not already. This is going to go through an ERC at 894mb....UNBELIEVABLE.
894mb is a satellite estimate...like I said, wait for recon.
Believe me, I know it's a sat estimate. Point is, she is going through fluctuations. Even the NHC is forecasting her to strengthen tomorrow...plus grow in size.
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n o o d l z
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skysummit wrote:n o o d l z wrote:skysummit wrote:Well, she's "weakened" too 155mph, but her pressure is still crazy...894mb. The inner eyewall should start to erode soon, if not already. This is going to go through an ERC at 894mb....UNBELIEVABLE.
894mb is a satellite estimate...like I said, wait for recon.
Believe me, I know it's a sat estimate. Point is, she is going through fluctuations. Even the NHC is forecasting her to strengthen tomorrow...plus grow in size.
I said it in the other dry air thread...I've got some crow ready just in case. But I think the NHC is dead wrong...but I don't think thats really saying much. I think we can all agree they haven't been the best at forecasting strength this year.
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markymark8
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crow???krysof wrote:markymark8 wrote:The outflow is not near as good to me especially to the northwest side . She is becoming more longated instead of oval shaped which is a sure sign of weakening. She will be lucky to be a 3 at landfall in Florida. There will be alot of dry air and shearing winds to demote her bigtime. There will be 2 stories to her . The one where she was the strongest recorded in the Caribbean and made history and when she enters the Gulf and becomes very disorganized and weakens fast to a strong cat 2 or 3 and wont end up being anything compared to Charley hitting the US. As I was just finishing this blog Mark Sudduth is saying there is alot of dry air hurting her right now.
The word "crow" comes to mind
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NCHurricane
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n o o d l z wrote:skysummit wrote:n o o d l z wrote:skysummit wrote:Well, she's "weakened" too 155mph, but her pressure is still crazy...894mb. The inner eyewall should start to erode soon, if not already. This is going to go through an ERC at 894mb....UNBELIEVABLE.
894mb is a satellite estimate...like I said, wait for recon.
Believe me, I know it's a sat estimate. Point is, she is going through fluctuations. Even the NHC is forecasting her to strengthen tomorrow...plus grow in size.
I said it in the other dry air thread...I've got some crow ready just in case. But I think the NHC is dead wrong...but I don't think thats really saying much. I think we can all agree they haven't been the best at forecasting strength this year.
The NHC will be the first to admit that forecasting tropical intensities is still the one the biggest problem they deal with - not just this year either. An ERC, for instance, isn't well understood as far as what causes it to begin. As far as I know it's almost impossible to forecast if a 'cane will become annular many hours in advance. (Someone please correct me if I am wrong).
Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com
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skysummit
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rainbird wrote:Can you clarify what ERC stands for??? Thanks much -
Eyewall Replacement Cycle. It's when the inner eyewall collapses and an outer eyewall takes over. When this happens, pressure usually rises and winds drop off a bit. Once the ERC is complete, it's possible the storm could re-strengthen again.
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wxmann_91
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markymark8 wrote:crow???krysof wrote:markymark8 wrote:The outflow is not near as good to me especially to the northwest side . She is becoming more longated instead of oval shaped which is a sure sign of weakening. She will be lucky to be a 3 at landfall in Florida. There will be alot of dry air and shearing winds to demote her bigtime. There will be 2 stories to her . The one where she was the strongest recorded in the Caribbean and made history and when she enters the Gulf and becomes very disorganized and weakens fast to a strong cat 2 or 3 and wont end up being anything compared to Charley hitting the US. As I was just finishing this blog Mark Sudduth is saying there is alot of dry air hurting her right now.
The word "crow" comes to mind
It means he thinks you'll be wrong.
rainbird wrote:Can you clarify what ERC stands for??? Thanks much -
Eyewall replacement cycle. Usually occurs in intense hurricanes.
skysummit wrote:The 00z NAM has it doing a loop in the Yuc then under the western tip of Cuba in 84 hours.
Don't trust the NAM. It is a worthless model in the tropics.
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skysummit wrote:rainbird wrote:Can you clarify what ERC stands for??? Thanks much -
Eyewall Replacement Cycle. It's when the inner eyewall collapses and an outer eyewall takes over. When this happens, pressure usually rises and winds drop off a bit. Once the ERC is complete, it's possible the storm could re-strengthen again.
Appreciate - I now have a more understanding what everyone is discussing on this topic - Thanks again
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