As we await the 18z GFDL

[Stratosphere747]

i think the track maybe shifted further south into miami dade.....

Enough...

[skysummit]

i think the track maybe shifted further south into miami dade.....

We know.

[x-y-no]

I know we are all focused on FL, but please note the 18z GFDL is VERY VERY BAD for New England!!

Yeah ... that's set to go over both my parents' houses.

And my place too, of course.

[Deenac813]

i think the track maybe shifted further south into miami dade.....

Enough...

I know you guys pick on her but in this case she may be right.

[Brent]

i think the track maybe shifted further south into miami dade.....

Enough...

LOL

although she is probably right.

[Vandora]

Oh man.

[Stratosphere747]

i think the track maybe shifted further south into miami dade.....

Enough...

LOL

although she is probably right.

Really Brent?

How does Wilma move at a angle that it would hit Miami?

I'm talking a direct hit...

[Brent]

i think the track maybe shifted further south into miami dade.....

Enough...

LOL

although she is probably right.

Really Brent?

How does Wilma move at a angle that it would hit Miami?

I'm talking a direct hit...

Just a hair east of the GFDL track... come up from the SSW and cross the Upper Keys and then landfall in Dade County in the Everglades and move NE across the metro.

[nequad]

I know we are all focused on FL, but please note the 18z GFDL is VERY VERY BAD for New England!!

Indeed, but it should also be noted that a slight deviation to the left of that track and we're talking about a storm that rakes the coast from Cape Hatteras to New York City. Food for thought.

[jujubean]

i think the track maybe shifted further south into miami dade.....

Enough...

LOL

although she is probably right.

Really Brent?

How does Wilma move at a angle that it would hit Miami?

I'm talking a direct hit...

Just a hair east of the GFDL track... come up from the SSW and cross the Upper Keys and then landfall in Dade County in the Everglades and move NE across the metro.

oh man ...just got home from work and shocked to see the gfdl tracking closer to my area ....just took the shutters down from rita ... and I'm sure not looking foward to the 16 hour shifts at fpl ....I'm hurricaned out this year

[JamesFromMaine2]

I know we are all focused on FL, but please note the 18z GFDL is VERY VERY BAD for New England!!

Indeed, but it should also be noted that a slight deviation to the left of that track and we're talking about a storm that rakes the coast from Cape Hatteras to New York City. Food for thought.

yeah then keeps going north east and slams into NH or Maine! No thanks I might be getting out of here! lol

[Steve H.]

Pardon me. You folks aren't taking the GFDL Lock, stock and barrel I hope. This guidance may take a run or two more to get back to where it should be. I personally am not buying that track at all. Tomorrow it will shift north again, probably 100 miles north.

[boca]

According to the 18 GFDL model it would take an Irene track of 99 but 10miles to the East.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Pardon me. You folks aren't taking the GFDL Lock, stock and barrel I hope. This guidance may take a run or two more to get back to where it should be. I personally am not buying that track at all. Tomorrow it will shift north again, probably 100 miles north.

I sorta agree with you. What do you base that on though?

J/w

Matt

[jkt21787]

Pardon me. You folks aren't taking the GFDL Lock, stock and barrel I hope. This guidance may take a run or two more to get back to where it should be. I personally am not buying that track at all. Tomorrow it will shift north again, probably 100 miles north.

I sorta agree with you. What do you base that on though?

J/w

Matt

I'm shocked you would think that

[caneman]

Pardon me. You folks aren't taking the GFDL Lock, stock and barrel I hope. This guidance may take a run or two more to get back to where it should be. I personally am not buying that track at all. Tomorrow it will shift north again, probably 100 miles north.

I totally agree with you. GFDL has ruined it's credibility for this storm and anyone hugging it right now isn't thinking to clearly. Looks to me NOGAPS and the Euro still have the best handle. I agree, expect to see GFDL to come even further North. Still think it will be somewhere between Tampa and Punto Gorda

[nequad]

My interest in the GFDL here is that it lends support to the other guidance supporting a threat further up the EC. I agree...the track in Florida could shift north again.

[Windy]

Pardon me. You folks aren't taking the GFDL Lock, stock and barrel I hope. This guidance may take a run or two more to get back to where it should be. I personally am not buying that track at all. Tomorrow it will shift north again, probably 100 miles north.

I totally agree with you. GFDL has ruined it's credibility for this storm and anyone hugging it right now isn't thinking to clearly. Looks to me NOGAPS and the Euro still have the best handle. I agree, expect to see GFDL to come even further North. Still think it will be somewhere between Tampa and Punto Gorda

GFDL's problem in the 12Z run had to do with lack of information being fed into it, not the fundementals of the model itself. GIGO, as they say.

[artist]

from Derek Ortt's weblog on Pensacola News Journal re the gfdl bad run -

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... ndex.shtml

The 12Z GFS, which caused the dramatic shift in the GFDL likely was a bad run. There were no GPS dropsondes used in the initialization of the model, leading the model to guess as to what the atmosphere was doing at the initial time. Therefore, one should not make any decision based upon that model.

Wilma remains as a dangerous category 5 hurricane, though the latest aircraft data indicates that the winds may have decreased to the very strong category 4 level. That said, because the pressure remains at 892mb, once the eye wall replacement cycle is completed, Wilma should quickly regain category 5 status. Once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it should weaken, but remain as a dangerous major hurricane until reaching Florida landfall. Any landfall in New England would likely be as a category 1 hurricane.

Not much change to the forecast track thinking. The confusion came from a bad model. The latest GFS appears more realistic in bringing the hurricane across south Florida on Sunday without stalling it over the Yucatan. Latest satellite imagery is suggesting that the track is shifting to the NW from WNW; however, this needs to be monitored for the next few hours to make sure this is not a wobble. A landfall still is not expected over the Yucatan; however, it should move close enough to bring hurricane conditions to the eastern portions, including Cozemul and Cancun.

Continue to comply with all orders given by local emergency management officials. Residents in the Florida Keys who may be reading this, please know that if you stay, you may very well die.

The effects in Pensacola should be limited to high waves on the beaches.
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