Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[skysummit]

wxmann....is the "Nested Gridded Model" worth anything in the tropics? I never see it used. What is this model primarily for? Just wondering because its 00z is showing something totally different than all the other models.

I don't think so, I've never heard of that model before.

Ok, I didn't think so either. I never saw it used before.

[milankovitch]

wxmann....is the "Nested Gridded Model" worth anything in the tropics? I never see it used. What is this model primarily for? Just wondering because its 00z is showing something totally different than all the other models.

I don't think so, I've never heard of that model before.

It's primarly not used , it was once used for general North American weather. It's VERY dated.

EDIT: It's still run on a number of sites but it's called the "no good model" for a reason.

[Chigger_Lopez]

The Ukmet and the Florida State Superensemble are in close agreement with a Jupiter exit. I may be a bit biased and guilty of -removed- a bit, but aren't those models some of the more reliable models out there?

[wxmann_91]

The Ukmet and the Florida State Superensemble are in close agreement with a Jupiter exit. I may be a bit biased and guilty of -removed- a bit, but aren't those models some of the more reliable models out there?

The Superensemble track Mike Watkins showed us in his video update yesterday was yesterday's run. Things could've changed in the latest. And the Superensemble isn't available for public viewing.

[artist]

I think the post above was talkng about the FSU mm5 super - which is not the good FSU superensemble.

[KissimmeeRoger]

The Ukmet and the Florida State Superensemble are in close agreement with a Jupiter exit. I may be a bit biased and guilty of -removed- a bit, but aren't those models some of the more reliable models out there?

I think you must be referring to the MM5 which isnt the Superensemble and I am afraid to tell you its not reliable. Its getting better, but has a long way to go. The Superensemble is only accessible to a few people outside of the NHC.

The UKMET isnt bad, but not great. Sometimes real bad. However, it is one of a few host of Models looked at by the NHC. Definitely better than the CMC and a lot better than the LBAR, BAMM and other some of the older models.

I believe everyone has their favorites, but I think the NHC likes Superensemble best, then GFDL (which they rely on heavily at times) and the GFS, then maybe NOGAPS, and then probably UKMET.

[Bgator]

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 20



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 18.0 84.0 300./ 7.0

6 18.2 84.8 284./ 7.8

12 18.6 85.4 298./ 7.3

18 19.2 85.9 322./ 7.5

24 19.8 86.5 319./ 8.6

30 20.1 87.2 294./ 6.8

36 20.5 87.4 331./ 4.8

42 21.0 87.8 320./ 5.7

48 21.1 87.9 302./ 1.2

54 21.2 87.9 340./ 1.5

60 21.2 87.9 90./ .7

66 21.3 87.8 38./ 1.1

72 21.3 87.6 90./ 1.9

78 21.2 87.2 96./ 3.6

84 21.5 86.9 54./ 3.4

90 21.6 86.4 76./ 4.9

96 22.1 85.5 60./ 9.5

102 22.5 84.4 71./11.3

108 23.3 83.2 57./13.8

114 24.7 81.3 53./21.6

120 27.3 79.2 39./32.2

126 30.2 77.0 37./34.7

[wxmann_91]

I believe everyone has their favorites, but I think the NHC likes Superensemble best, then GFDL (which they rely on heavily at times) and the GFS, then maybe NOGAPS, and then probably UKMET.

They also use the ECMWF a lot.

[Bgator]

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 20



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.




FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 18.0 84.0 300./ 7.0

6 18.2 84.8 284./ 7.8

12 18.6 85.4 298./ 7.3

18 19.2 85.9 322./ 7.5

24 19.8 86.5 319./ 8.6

30 20.1 87.2 294./ 6.8

36 20.5 87.4 331./ 4.8

42 21.0 87.8 320./ 5.7

48 21.1 87.9 302./ 1.2

54 21.2 87.9 340./ 1.5

60 21.2 87.9 90./ .7

66 21.3 87.8 38./ 1.1

72 21.3 87.6 90./ 1.9

78 21.2 87.2 96./ 3.6

84 21.5 86.9 54./ 3.4

90 21.6 86.4 76./ 4.9

96 22.1 85.5 60./ 9.5

102 22.5 84.4 71./11.3

108 23.3 83.2 57./13.8

114 24.7 81.3 53./21.6

120 27.3 79.2 39./32.2

126 30.2 77.0 37./34.7

Now thinking about it, die to the size this may be a MAjor rain event in FLA too!(its slowed down considerably)

[Windy]

Sooooooo.... given the latest fix position, is it just me, or is it headed a lot more west than was originally forecast? This may be a Yucatan storm in a big way before it turns, which would be great for Florida but really bad for ol' Yucatan.

[artist]

Windy - it actually hit the last forecast post dead on. I think it could be the wobbles that give that impression cause I thought so too til I checked it. And the wobble is caused by the double eyewall feature at this time.

[Aquawind]

Bouy 42056 pressure continues to fall and wave action is getting bigger. That bouy is in some deep water lets hope it continues giving data..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056


Paul

[jim09091]

HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

...WILMA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A
HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA HAS MOVING BETWEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 899 MB...26.55 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
BETWEEN...WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...899 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[artist]

wow - I had checked it several hours ago - quite a change.

[jim09091]

Bouy 42056 pressure continues to fall and wave action is getting bigger. That bouy is in some deep water lets hope it continues giving data..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056


Paul

wilma 2am location: 18.1N 84.7W
buoy location: 19.87N 85.06W

buoy is 123.31 miles away from storm's 2am advisory coordinate (using "measure" in google earth)

Buoy Wind Speed (WSPD): 38.9 kts (44.8 mph)
Buoy Wind Gust (GST): 46.6 kts (53.7 mph)
Buoy Wave Height (WVHT): 22.3 ft


also, this last coordinate (2am) location puts Wilma approx. 615.24 miles away from Fort Myers, FL.

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.0 84.0 300./ 7.0
6 18.2 84.8 284./ 7.8
12 18.6 85.4 298./ 7.3
18 19.2 85.9 322./ 7.5
24 19.8 86.5 319./ 8.6
30 20.1 87.2 294./ 6.8
36 20.5 87.4 331./ 4.8
42 21.0 87.8 320./ 5.7
48 21.1 87.9 302./ 1.2
54 21.2 87.9 340./ 1.5
60 21.2 87.9 90./ .7
66 21.3 87.8 38./ 1.1
72 21.3 87.6 90./ 1.9
78 21.2 87.2 96./ 3.6
84 21.5 86.9 54./ 3.4
90 21.6 86.4 76./ 4.9
96 22.1 85.5 60./ 9.5
102 22.5 84.4 71./11.3
108 23.3 83.2 57./13.8
114 24.7 81.3 53./21.6
120 27.3 79.2 39./32.2
126 30.2 77.0 37./34.7

[calculatedrisk]

42 21.0 87.8 320./ 5.7
48 21.1 87.9 302./ 1.2
54 21.2 87.9 340./ 1.5
60 21.2 87.9 90./ .7
66 21.3 87.8 38./ 1.1
72 21.3 87.6 90./ 1.9
78 21.2 87.2 96./ 3.6
84 21.5 86.9 54./ 3.4
90 21.6 86.4 76./ 4.9

Back to a stall track.

[StrongWind]

The current GOES wv and ir has the cdo and cloud tops looking much better than late last night.

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 200705
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
305 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL CHANGES EARLY
THIS MORNING...FORECAST OF WILMA IS STILL MUCH LESS THAN CERTAIN.
ONE PARTICULAR FEATURE THAT PERHAPS THE MODELS MAY BE HAVING
PROBLEMS WITH IS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WILMA. SEEMS
THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN DELAYING THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WILMA...AND
PERHAPS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE TOO SOON. IN
ANY EVENT...00Z GFS HAS HAD A SIGNIF CHANGE THIS RUN...NOW MOVING
WILMA HALF WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND STALLING IT
THERE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. BY THEN...THE LONG WAVE TROF THAT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP WILMA EAST AND NORTH WILL HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TIME
TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN US...WHICH WOULD THUS KEEP WILMA ON A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS IT MOVES ENE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH THIS SCENARIO...AS WELL AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS...WHICH
GENERALLY SHOW WILMA'S TRACK STAYING FARTHER SOUTH ONCE IT DOES TAKE
THAT RIGHT TURN AND START MOVING ENE. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...IF THIS
IS INDEED A TREND THAT FUTURE RUNS STICK TO...THAT WOULD BE GOOD
NEWS FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME
WE'VE SEEN BIG MODEL CHANGES (ESP ON THE 00Z CYCLES)...AND AS SUCH I
WOULDN'T LET THE GUARD DOWN FOR OUR AREA...ESP GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY
OF THE MID/UPR PATTERN THAT IS TAKING SHAPE.

AGAIN...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...IT STILL NEEDS TO BE
POINTED OUT THAT WE'RE "NOT OUT OF THE WOODS" JUST YET WITH WILMA.
ALL INTERESTS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR HURRICANE WILMA. &&

.LONG TERM (SAT NGT-WED)...THIS FORECAST PERIOD WAS BASED PRIMARILY
ON TPC'S FORECAST POSITIONS OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND AS SUCH...
DEPICTS MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY THAN WHAT THE GFS
WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE. IF THE TPC FORECAST SLOWS THE APPROACH OF
WILMA IN LATER FORECASTS...WE WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. SO FOR NOW...LIKELY RAIN CHANCES SOUTHERN HALF THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH JUST CHANCE NORTH AS WILMA TRACKS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH CHANCE SOUTH AND SLIGHT
CHANCE CENTRAL...WITH THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH SHUTTING DOWN AS
COOLER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN.

&&

.
.
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION....JILLSON

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 200836
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

AS ANTICIPATED...WILMA IS GOING THROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN
EYEWALL CYCLE. THIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS
FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH REPORTED EXCELLENT RADAR
PRESENTATION OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 4 AND 40 N MI IN DIAMETER
RESPECTIVELY. THE PLANE ALSO OBSERVED TWO MAXIMUM WIND BANDS...ONE
WITH WINDS OF 121 KNOTS...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 903 MB MEASURED
BY A SONDE...BUT WITH 23 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE COULD
THEN BE A FEW MILLIBARS LOWER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS SPECTACULAR AS IT WAS 12 TO 18 HOURS
AGO AND IN FACT...THE EYE IS OBSCURED AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWN TO 130 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE AN OVERESTIMATE
SINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 121 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WE
ARE ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION.

WE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHEN AND IF THE STRENGTHENING PHASE OF THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN. SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THE
FORMATION OF A LARGE EYE LATER TODAY. THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THERE WILL BE INCREASING WIND SHEAR. WILMA SHOULD THEN BEGIN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND.

THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST TURN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET AND THE AVERAGE
MOTION OF WILMA IS STILL 295 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL UNITED STATES ADVANCES RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OE MEXICO AND WILMA
SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. THE
SHORT-WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND BRING THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH
ENOUGH TO CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THE WESTERLIES
BECOME ESTABLISHED...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK.
WILMA WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR A DAY OR SO OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEFORE TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IN
A TYPICAL RECURVATURE PATTERN.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE USUAL VARIABILITY BUT THE OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP WILMA MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR OR OVER
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN SHARPLY TURNING
THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT BY DAY
FIVE...WILMA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BY JUDGING THE EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD AND THE FRONTAL LIKE
MOISTURE PATTERN IN MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 18.3N 85.0W 130 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 18.9N 85.8W 135 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 86.5W 145 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 87.0W 145 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 22.0N 86.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 24.0N 84.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 37.1N 70.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL


$$