Let's hope the current model trends are correct!!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

If the current models are correct, there's a decent chance this may just clip the southern edge of Florida, of course the keys would still get hit though. It will be interesting to see if these models continue to shift further south and shift completely out of Florida. Also, the models are really weakening this at 96 hours, this is another good thing. I can understand this though due to the interaction with the troft and SIGNIFICANT shear.... In fact if would be extremely odd if they weren't weakening this. So at least there's a potential that it may not be the monster that we were once thinking...but as they say, it's better to be prepared just in case.


Keeping fingers crossed.....

[jim09091]

Keeping fingers crossed.....

ditto.

[Foladar0]

I'm no good with these models but what do the GFDL/GFS do with this system and how would Homestead / Florida City fare in this situation?

[Vandora]

I would cross my fingers, but the current model trends wouldn't be so good for those of us down near the southern edge...

[Foladar0]

I would cross my fingers, but the current model trends wouldn't be so good for those of us down near the southern edge...

Well from what I think I can understand, it wouldn't be as bad as the current situation for us in general, as it would be much weaker.

[Vandora]

Well from what I think I can understand, it wouldn't be as bad as the current situation for us in general, as it would be much weaker.

True. I'm just not ready to let my guard down, I guess. How much weaker, though?

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm no good with these models but what do the GFDL/GFS do with this system and how would Homestead / Florida City fare in this situation?

Here ya go:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html


I checked this link only a few hours ago and the GDFL was further North, now the GDFL is slowly moving south to converge with the other models, so it looks like they are all starting to agree FINALLY on the direction. I think when they all start agreeing on the direction, it's a pretty safe bet it will landfall in that general area..., case in point Rita and Katrina...

[Foladar0]

I'm no good with these models but what do the GFDL/GFS do with this system and how would Homestead / Florida City fare in this situation?

Here ya go:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html


I checked this link only a few hours ago and the GDFL was further North, now the GDFL is slowly moving south to converge with the other models, so it looks like they are all starting to agree FINALLY on the direction. I think when they all start agreeing on the direction, it's a pretty safe bet it will landfall in that general area..., case in point Rita and Katrina...

I saw that much, but was curious was to what these models said as in when, and intensity.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm no good with these models but what do the GFDL/GFS do with this system and how would Homestead / Florida City fare in this situation?

Here ya go:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html


I checked this link only a few hours ago and the GDFL was further North, now the GDFL is slowly moving south to converge with the other models, so it looks like they are all starting to agree FINALLY on the direction. I think when they all start agreeing on the direction, it's a pretty safe bet it will landfall in that general area..., case in point Rita and Katrina...

I saw that much, but was curious was to what these models said as in when, and intensity.

Hmmm, can't remember what thread I saw the link, but I remember checked it out a couple of hours ago at work and it showed the strength based on what the models were displaying.

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 200705
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
305 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL CHANGES EARLY
THIS MORNING...FORECAST OF WILMA IS STILL MUCH LESS THAN CERTAIN.
ONE PARTICULAR FEATURE THAT PERHAPS THE MODELS MAY BE HAVING
PROBLEMS WITH IS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WILMA. SEEMS
THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN DELAYING THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WILMA...AND
PERHAPS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE TOO SOON. IN
ANY EVENT...00Z GFS HAS HAD A SIGNIF CHANGE THIS RUN...NOW MOVING
WILMA HALF WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND STALLING IT
THERE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. BY THEN...THE LONG WAVE TROF THAT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP WILMA EAST AND NORTH WILL HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TIME
TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN US...WHICH WOULD THUS KEEP WILMA ON A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS IT MOVES ENE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH THIS SCENARIO...AS WELL AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS...WHICH
GENERALLY SHOW WILMA'S TRACK STAYING FARTHER SOUTH ONCE IT DOES TAKE
THAT RIGHT TURN AND START MOVING ENE. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...IF THIS
IS INDEED A TREND THAT FUTURE RUNS STICK TO...THAT WOULD BE GOOD
NEWS FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME
WE'VE SEEN BIG MODEL CHANGES (ESP ON THE 00Z CYCLES)...AND AS SUCH I
WOULDN'T LET THE GUARD DOWN FOR OUR AREA...ESP GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY
OF THE MID/UPR PATTERN THAT IS TAKING SHAPE.

AGAIN...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...IT STILL NEEDS TO BE
POINTED OUT THAT WE'RE "NOT OUT OF THE WOODS" JUST YET WITH WILMA.
ALL INTERESTS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR HURRICANE WILMA. &&

.LONG TERM (SAT NGT-WED)...THIS FORECAST PERIOD WAS BASED PRIMARILY
ON TPC'S FORECAST POSITIONS OF HURRICANE WILMA...AND AS SUCH...
DEPICTS MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY THAN WHAT THE GFS
WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE. IF THE TPC FORECAST SLOWS THE APPROACH OF
WILMA IN LATER FORECASTS...WE WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. SO FOR NOW...LIKELY RAIN CHANCES SOUTHERN HALF THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH JUST CHANCE NORTH AS WILMA TRACKS SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH CHANCE SOUTH AND SLIGHT
CHANCE CENTRAL...WITH THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH SHUTTING DOWN AS
COOLER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN.

&&

.
.
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PETRO
LONG TERM/AVIATION....JILLSON

[Blown Away]

I'm no expert, but wasn't the GFS & GFDL showing the stall and moving Wilma way south of Fl peninsula?? Now they have moved in line w/ the NHC track, right! Didn't the BAM move a little N at 8am. If anything they have trended N since the stall meltdown they had yesterday.

[GalvestonDuck]

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