Wilma's NE turn

[Josephine96]

In my opinion, When Wilma does begin to make the NE turn, she'll make it and end up going further up the coast, Because I don't see her turn being that sharp..

I still think a landfall somewhere along the Central West coast is possible {Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota and points northward}

A landfall in Tampa or just south of Tampa would give us here a lot of real bad winds and weather too.

This is gonna be interesting..

[inotherwords]

I think this is unlikely given the current models and what's expected to happen in the Yucatan.

[bucman1]

Why do you feel the NE turn will not be that sharp???

[wxwonder12]

Does anyone have a reasonable guess on when that n or nw direction will begin??

[wxcrazytwo]

I look at Wilma as big truck making a turn. Big trucks don't make sharp turns, but rather long curvy turns...

[dcuevas]

I don't know anything! But I was looking at the Navy Model and it looks like it has it coming between Tampa and Naples. Then again I could be reading this wrong.

[Josephine96]

I don't think her turn will be that sharp because she'll either A be a little further north when she makes it.. or B.. she's a big storm, and a big storm can't necessarily make that sharp of a turn..

[gtalum]

The NHC, Joe B, and Derek Ortt's organization all seem to think such a sharp turn is quite possible. the major models all predict such a sharp turn. What specifically do you see that proves them all wrong?

[inotherwords]

The NHC, Joe B, and Derek Ortt's organization all seem to think such a sharp turn is quite possible. the major models all predict such a sharp turn. What specifically do you see that proves them all wrong?

The city under their name

[wxcrazytwo]

The NHC, Joe B, and Derek Ortt's organization all seem to think such a sharp turn is quite possible. the major models all predict such a sharp turn. What specifically do you see that proves them all wrong?

what is wrong is that they are over estimating the strength of the high and the strength of this trough. I don't think the trough will dig that far south to make a sudden turn to the deeeep south like they say.

[Josephine96]

We are not people I disagree with here lol

[dcuevas]

I agree. NOT -removed-! Just being realistic about what could happen since it appears the models don't want to agree.

[cjrciadt]

Remember even if the turn is that sharp any wobbles the day before landfall could change landfall and the area of the state affected greatly. How many hours did Charley wobble only 3, and changed landfall target greatly.

[Josephine96]

Charley's wobble definitely got everyone in the peninsula nervous..

[shaggy]

this storm will likely hit the Yucatan as it has not turned as of yet and it CAN make a sharp turn.Go back and look at the track of hurricane dennis in 99' as it approached NC.It turned on a dime and moved ENE.

If you notice they have it slowing down in the Yuc channel or over the Yuc itself a slow moving system can change directions abruptly and make sharp turns so yes it can make that turn quick!

[Tiny]

Hi all, when do you all think this thing will make that NE turn? As I understand it, the front coming down is like a brick wall to the cane and thats what will cause it to turn so sharply. So it will depend on when and where they meet as to where this thing is gonna make landfall, correct?

[skysummit]

Hi all, when do you all think this thing will make that NE turn? As I understand it, the front coming down is like a brick wall to the cane and thats what will cause it to turn so sharply. So it will depend on when and where they meet as to where this thing is gonna make landfall, correct?

It all depends on the speed and timing of the front. Plus, just how far she makes it south will have a play in it also.

[Tiny]

Hi all, when do you all think this thing will make that NE turn? As I understand it, the front coming down is like a brick wall to the cane and thats what will cause it to turn so sharply. So it will depend on when and where they meet as to where this thing is gonna make landfall, correct?

It all depends on the speed and timing of the front. Plus, just how far she makes it south will have a play in it also.

So the big question is, when are these to weather systems expected to meet?

[jax]

I look at Wilma as big truck making a turn. Big trucks don't make sharp turns, but rather long curvy turns...

the longer it takes her to make the turn... the more dry air she'll suck up.
IF wilma goes further north... she would likely be a cat 1 at most by
landfall.

Also, big trucks make sharper turns when they are going slow. At 5 mph
a big truck can make a surprisingly sharp turn. at 20-25 miles an hour...
they can't.

[PBGator]

I don't think her turn will be that sharp because she'll either A be a little further north when she makes it.. or B.. she's a big storm, and a big storm can't necessarily make that sharp of a turn..

I think you are looking at this wrong in terms of physics. I would agree if it was a large object, not spinning and simply bound by it's mass but it's a spinning object with it's own intertia. Think of it as a large top and small top. A large can change direction as quickly as a small one. In fact I would argue the opposite that large storms can and do change directions more readily than small ones due to the fact synoptic features do not influence it as much as a smaller weaker storm. The old "Makes it's own guidance" theory some mets have.