SW Florida Thread -- Lee, Collier, Charlotte-EVACS/SHELTERS

#101 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:49 am

Trader Ron wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:I might go up to Bonita Beach and say hello to Jeff.

Where is Jim Cantore going to be?

Myersgirl said Jim will be in Ft Myers starting at 4:00 PM today.

Scroll Up.

Thanks

#102 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:20 am

Kerry Sanders from NBC was in Naples this morning as he appeared on the Today show.

Also, gas is getting more difficult as many of the pumps are running out. Hopefully, this early, the supplies will be replenished.

Lynn

#103 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:22 am

HurricaneQueen wrote:Kerry Sanders from NBC was in Naples this morning as he appeared on the Today show.

Also, gas is getting more difficult as many of the pumps are running out. Hopefully, this early, the supplies will be replenished.

Lynn

Huh...good luck. A lot of our gas stations are still running out of fuel.

#104 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:59 am

THe agony of waiting is getting out of control! I just want to get his over with and move on....

#105 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:36 am

Tracy

You've got that right. Last night I got violently ill. Don't know if it was a bug or a panic attack (very unlike me). Still a little shaky and I'm sure the uncertainty is part of it.

Lynn

boca · #106 Postby **boca** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:45 am

The stress is the same here in SE FL I do hope you feel better Hurricane Queen.

#107 Postby **TampaFl** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:53 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 201500
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

WILMA CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING...295/6...WHICH
REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FOR THIS
REASON...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAOB DATA IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS SUGGEST THAT
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING AND IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT
WILMA WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET ARE BEING INGESTED INTO
THE 12Z MODELS AND WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT IMPACT THESE DATA HAVE ON
THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED.
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION.
AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
KEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE'S
HIGHEST WINDS ALREADY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL.
ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN. WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.4N 85.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.1N 86.2W 130 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.3N 86.9W 140 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 21.2N 87.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 120 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 40.0N 68.0W 60 KT

$$

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Page last modified: Thursday, 20-Oct-2005 11:04:51 EDT

#108 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 12:50 pm

Thanks, Boca:

Stomach still in knots but I have finally cancelled my travel reservations :cry:

Now I can settle down and focus on the situation at hand.

Lynn

#109 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:07 pm

Mandatory evacs for Collier West and South of 41. I think it is going to start Friday at noon. Someone please correct me if I am incorrect. Just heard it on Channel 2 in Ft. Myers.

LSue · #110 Postby **LSue** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:12 pm

Yes, Tracy that is correct.

Voluntary evacuations west of Livingston Rd (which is me). This may change to mandatory as the need arises. Shelters open at noon on Saturday.

NBC-2 is the only station with any news coverage...unreal!

I did hear coverage of the EOC news conference on 98.9.

Still listening...

Linda

hicksta · #111 Postby **hicksta** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:36 pm

tracyswfla wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:I might go up to Bonita Beach and say hello to Jeff.

Where is Jim Cantore going to be?

Myersgirl said Jim will be in Ft Myers starting at 4:00 PM today.

Scroll Up.

Thanks

Dude there is still hope... Jim Cantore was a mile away from my house in seabrook... And my house is still standing.. with no damage!! (except i cant catch any good size redfish anymore!!!! ) :wink:

#112 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:42 pm

West of Livingston??? That is unheard of. Usually Rt 41 is the dividing line. And, yes, they just said on NBC if you are anywhere near the water in Collier Co (that's me) to pack up, shutter up and get out!!!!

Since my trip was cancelled I have work in the morning to finish putting up the sensitive documents and computer equipment. Hubby should be out of work by 2 if not earlier so we will make our first run to our hotel to check in and haul stuff in. Again tonight we are moving some things to our "safe" house in Bonita and packing the freezer there.

Saturday we should be out of here-hopefully not for good.

Lynn

#113 Postby **Trader Ron** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:51 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:West of Livingston??? That is unheard of. Usually Rt 41 is the dividing line. And, yes, they just said on NBC if you are anywhere near the water in Collier Co (that's me) to pack up, shutter up and get out!!!!

Since my trip was cancelled I have work in the morning to finish putting up the sensitive documents and computer equipment. Hubby should be out of work by 2 if not earlier so we will make our first run to our hotel to check in and haul stuff in. Again tonight we are moving some things to our "safe" house in Bonita and packing the freezer there.

Saturday we should be out of here-hopefully not for good.

Lynn

If the GOM gets to Livingston Road i will be shocked and stunned. Not saying it is impossible, but unlikely with Wilma.

Myersgirl · #114 Postby **Myersgirl** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:54 pm

Jim Cantore said he would be in Ft Myers at 4:00 on air last night but that was the last I heard. He should be in Cancun!

#115 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:15 pm

Trader Ron wrote:
HurricaneQueen wrote:West of Livingston??? That is unheard of. Usually Rt 41 is the dividing line. And, yes, they just said on NBC if you are anywhere near the water in Collier Co (that's me) to pack up, shutter up and get out!!!!

Since my trip was cancelled I have work in the morning to finish putting up the sensitive documents and computer equipment. Hubby should be out of work by 2 if not earlier so we will make our first run to our hotel to check in and haul stuff in. Again tonight we are moving some things to our "safe" house in Bonita and packing the freezer there.

Saturday we should be out of here-hopefully not for good.

Lynn

If the GOM gets to Livingston Road i will be shocked and stunned. Not saying it is impossible, but unlikely with Wilma.

I hope not! my office is on Livingston....

#116 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:44 pm

Just saw him in Key Largo. Sorry, Tracy. I know you had your heart set on meeting up with him. :wink:

Jeff Morrow is in Bonita and Eric Horng in t. Myers.

We just went through Bonita and didn't see any gas-bags on all the pumps.

I-75 was bumper to bumper from Ft. Myers to Sarasota most of the afternoon and mandatory evacuations hadn't started on this coast yet. Although Collier is starting at noon tomorrow, Lee Co is going to wait and see. They didn't even sound as if the barrier islands up there were a certainty :eek:

unless there was a possibility of surge.

Maybe they really expect this to go poof before hitting FL.???

Lynn

SWFLMom · #117 Postby **SWFLMom** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:27 pm

Kevin

Thanks for the info. I have a quick question. I am getting conflicting info on the voluntary evacuation west of Livingston. Do you know how far north that goes? We are west of Livingston, north of Pine Ridge and south of Vanderbilt. We have a place to go in Boynton if we have to leave and if we can get there!!

#118 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:29 pm

Kevin:

Terrific post. It is full of information that is only being hinted at in the media. We are preparing as if we will be hit by a major. It's exhausting work but worth it as we are saving valuable pictures, years of genealogy work, better clothing, jewelry,some of our electronics, etc. It is good that we have extra time to prepare. I already ache all over and we still have two days worth of work to do but it should be worth it.

I, for one, really appreciate your posts and hope you will keep them coming. NBC just now said it's possible it will be a tropical storm if it sits over the YP for 48 hours. I'm not counting on that but I'm afraid people hear what they want and will not be ready despite all the warnings from EOC.

Thank you, Kevin,

Lynn

LSue · #119 Postby **LSue** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:42 pm

Kevin,

Thank you for all this information.

You are an amazing young man....your parents must be very proud of you!

Be safe,

Linda

#120 Postby **MetsIslesNoles** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:44 pm

Just to lighten the mood Kevin...

Go Trojans! Lely's gonna take that Coconut. ;-)

Great posts! Are you interested in a career in meteorology? While you might not want to take advise from a Trojan... I'd recommend my "other" alma mater... Florida State. ;-)

Just a thought!

Batten down the hatches and get to safety... I'm still trying to convince my parents that the surge might be worse than currently predicted and that they need to assume a Cat 4+ surge on the SLOSH maps. Where they are they might be "wet" but not under water... but they need to go ahead and come visit me in Tally. I'm still hoping for weakening, but I'll believe it when I see it.

-Bill
Lely Class of '97
FSU 2001

SW Florida Thread -- Lee, Collier, Charlotte-EVACS/SHELTERS

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