Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Amanzi]

Please someone help me here, im confuzzed.

If she starts her more northerly component soon, would that not mean she would hit the US further south or miss the mainland of Florida? Or do I have this the wrong way around?????

[caneman]

If its starts turning now would that be sooner than anticipated? Would Wilma take the more southerly path to the NE? Stay tune for these and other questions in our continuing drama....

I think it has more to do with speed and speed keeps up I think Nogaps wins out with Tampa. 1/2 the speed Port Charlotte significantly slowing Southern route. IMHO. Is it me or does it look like the 11:00 advisory now has it coming in around Ft. Myers as opposed to Naples?

[gtalum]

Please someone help me here, im confuzzed.

If she starts her more northerly component soon, would that not mean she would hit the US further south or miss the mainland of Florida? Or do I have this the wrong way around?????

The earlier she turns, the farther north she will get before she turns eastward, and the farthe rnorth she strikes Florida. Likewise, the later the turn, the more south she hits in Florida (or possibly misses mainland Florida altogether).

[CronkPSU]

Please someone help me here, im confuzzed.

If she starts her more northerly component soon, would that not mean she would hit the US further south or miss the mainland of Florida? Or do I have this the wrong way around?????

further north she heads now, the further north the landfall would occur

most models have it headed somewhere between NE and ENE, so the further north she is when that turn happens will affect where it hits land

I think

[skysummit]

thank you Sky

Here's the 4 I mentioned. The UKMET is south, the NOGAPS is north and the GFS and GFDL are pretty much in line with the NHC's forecast.


http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/1452/al2420055td.jpg

[CronkPSU]

wow I am more confused than ever

[caneman]

Please someone help me here, im confuzzed.

If she starts her more northerly component soon, would that not mean she would hit the US further south or miss the mainland of Florida? Or do I have this the wrong way around?????

further north she heads now, the further north the landfall would occur

most models have it headed somewhere between NE and ENE, so the further north she is when that turn happens will affect where it hits land

I think

And if present rate of motion continue it will go further North. I'm I the only one who thinks that NOGAPS has been most consistant so far?

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

WILMA CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING...295/6...WHICH
REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FOR THIS
REASON...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAOB DATA IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS SUGGEST THAT
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING AND IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT
WILMA WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET ARE BEING INGESTED INTO
THE 12Z MODELS AND WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT IMPACT THESE DATA HAVE ON
THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED.
RIDGING IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION.
AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
KEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE'S
HIGHEST WINDS ALREADY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL.
ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN. WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.4N 85.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.1N 86.2W 130 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.3N 86.9W 140 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 21.2N 87.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 120 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 40.0N 68.0W 60 KT

[gtalum]

I think it has more to do with speed and speed keeps up I think Nogaps wins out with Tampa. 1/2 the speed Port Charlotte significantly slowing Southern route. IMHO. Is it me or does it look like the 11:00 advisory now has it coming in around Ft. Myers as opposed to Naples?

The forecast Florida landfall point has been bouncing between Ft. Myers and Naples for two days now.

[gtalum]

NOGAPS initialized way too far north and east, according to that graphic.

[wxwonder12]

At this rate we will be watching this thing until next Hurricane season

[Amanzi]

Thanks guys... I think I hate waiting.

[Agua]

Wow, am I the only one seeing a near stall here?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

[Myersgirl]

thank you Sky

Here's the 4 I mentioned. The UKMET is south, the NOGAPS is north and the GFS and GFDL are pretty much in line with the NHC's forecast.


http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/1452/al2420055td.jpg

Is that the latest model runs for the gfdl and gfs?

[cycloneye]

WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.


The above from discussion of 10AM CDT advisorie.

Good news there for Florida if that pans out.

[skysummit]

Well, the NHC center says it could still reach Cat 5 again later...

"SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE'S
HIGHEST WINDS ALREADY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL.
ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN. WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. "

Good news is a weaker storm for Florida since it should spend more time over the Yuc. Slaccuweather is calling for Wilma to continue weakening to a Cat 3 before reaching the the Yuc:

[skysummit]

thank you Sky

Here's the 4 I mentioned. The UKMET is south, the NOGAPS is north and the GFS and GFDL are pretty much in line with the NHC's forecast.


http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/1452/al2420055td.jpg

Is that the latest model runs for the gfdl and gfs?

Yes.

[CronkPSU]

WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.


The above from discussion of 10AM CDT advisorie.

Good news there for Florida if that pans out.

appears so, for some reason I am still worried about it re-intensifying north of cuba...that is an area that is pretty close to where Katrina and Rita blew up big time, let's hope shear stays high

[skysummit]

WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO
SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.


The above from discussion of 10AM CDT advisorie.

Good news there for Florida if that pans out.

appears so, for some reason I am still worried about it re-intensifying north of cuba...that is an area that is pretty close to where Katrina and Rita blew up big time, let's hope shear stays high

The shear should be pretty darn high I believe.

[cycloneye]

The 10 AM CDT track from NHC.