Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[nequad]

It said ont he graphic that it was updated around 11Z...therefore didn't think it was the 12Z run. My bad.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 85.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 20.10.2005 18.1N 85.3W INTENSE

00UTC 21.10.2005 18.8N 85.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.10.2005 19.7N 86.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.10.2005 20.2N 87.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.10.2005 19.7N 87.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 23.10.2005 19.8N 88.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 23.10.2005 20.8N 88.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.10.2005 21.2N 88.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.10.2005 22.7N 87.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.10.2005 23.2N 84.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.10.2005 25.5N 80.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.10.2005 29.4N 76.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 26.10.2005 34.0N 72.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY



12z UKMET.

[LanceW]

OK, I answered my own question. The GFDL does not appear to stall out, but is a little slower. (Unless I am seeing this wrong.)

[stormy1959]

Its now showing Wilma crossing Cuba after stalling on the tip of the Yuc.

[CHRISTY]

so does this maybe indicate a pretty strong system for south florida.....

[jkt21787]

so does this maybe indicate a pretty strong system for south florida.....

Actually no. If models are right with a Yucatan landfall or possible stall, FL landfall may be cat 2 or even cat 1. This is looking more likely too.

[nequad]

If the time stamp is correct on your site skeetobite...then the GFDL IS the 6Z run.

[nequad]

12Z GFDL...looks nothing like the 6Z run.


CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.3 85.2 295./ 6.0
6 18.7 85.7 303./ 6.3
12 19.1 86.3 309./ 6.5
18 19.5 86.8 303./ 6.4
24 19.9 87.3 314./ 6.0
30 20.2 87.7 303./ 5.4
36 20.3 88.2 281./ 4.0
42 20.2 88.2 191./ .5
48 20.4 88.4 315./ 2.9
54 20.4 88.5 236./ 1.0
60 20.4 88.3 66./ 1.7
66 20.6 88.5 317./ 2.3
72 20.5 88.5 191./ 1.5
78 20.5 88.2 78./ 3.2
84 20.9 87.9 40./ 4.6
90 20.9 87.7 99./ 1.9
96 20.9 86.9 86./ 6.9
102 21.0 86.2 86./ 7.0
108 21.4 85.2 64./10.1
114 21.6 84.6 73./ 6.5
120 22.3 83.6 56./11.4
126 23.6 82.5 39./16.1

[AZS]

[SkeetoBite]

All model and NHC track time stamps are UTC (Zulu)

Click and drag oversized images to your browser address bar to view the full size locally (from your browser cache).

LOL - our system choked on the data file. I'll make sure that doesn't happen again!

[SkeetoBite]

second post was free... wrong txt file referecned above... stand by

[jkt21787]

GFDL now looks very close to what it did Yesterday at this time, stall in the Yucatan and moving south of Cuba. Not good...

[nequad]

It says right there, the GFDL was updated at 1126UTC...which would be the 6Z run.

It is obvious from the text data I just posted of 12Z GFDL that what we have been looking at the past hour is not the 12Z run.

[nequad]

Now I see the 12Z run has been updated on your site.

The GFDL now has a time stamp of 1736 UTC.

[cycloneye]

Ok now skeetobite graphic has been updated with the 12z GFDL.

[SkeetoBite]

It says right there, the GFDL was updated at 1126UTC...which would be the 6Z run.

It is obvious from the text data I just posted of 12Z GFDL that what we have been looking at the past hour is not the 12Z run.

For some reason the new data was hung up in our system. The map is now correct. I'll fix the problem long before the next run.

Thanks for poiting that out. I was looking at the updated raw data on the server and was about to argue that the map was reflecting it... Great... and I thought we were perfect.

[Canelaw99]

Has the UKMET shifted south? I know it's a "model to look at" according to the model guidance sticky, but how reliable does it tend to be?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Moving NW at 5

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 201749
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES... 255 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...7 KM/HR. A
MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...18.6 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[nequad]

I don't believe there is anythin wrong with your site skeetobite. It's been doing just what it did today ever since I've been looking at it. The GFDL always comes to me in text data...probably the exact same time it comes to you. I always look at the text data, then go to your site, and sure enough it is updated exactly when I receive the data.

Perhaps there has just been some confusion, being that the 6Z run updates near 12Z...giving the illusion that it is the 12Z run?

Either way...I love your site and please keep up the good work!