I'm tired of "It's only a Cat 2 or 3...."

[markymark8]

She will be lucky to be a 2. We are seeing the same dealio like Rita. They turned into powerfull monsters and died away steadily but this time it looks as if Wilma wont be as strong as Rita. The ERC sometimes can make a Hurricane never get there act together once they start it. Most of all cat 5s can sometimes lose their strength almost as fast as they gain it when they bottom out so quick. Its actually good they strengthen so quick because they wont be able 98% of the time get even close to what their original pressue was and weaken fast bigtime ending up being a baby storm compared to what they were. If Wilma makes landfall on the Yucatan and especially she stay puts for a while she might be lucky to be a cat 1 when she hits Florida. The atmosphere and water temps will be unable to strengthen her anymore once she gets in the Gulf. She will only weaken from here on out. Right now wilmas eye looks very ragged and time is running out to get her act together 1 more time and try to make a comeback. Hey guys I'm not trying to piss anybody off here I am just giving u the facts.

Just like you gave us the facts that Wilma would probably never make major hurricane status at all? Just to remind you and others, you kept saying outflow was limited and dry air was beating the system and unless abated, wouldn't allow Wilma to reach major most likely. Guess what? The dry air hasn't moved at all since your last comment, and it became the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record.

I admit I was wrong!!!! and the dry air has not entered into the storm YET!!!! but it will once she really gets into the Gulf. Mark Sudduth is a trip u got to love him. He was just listening to a movie soundtrack acting like he was interviewing Wilma asking her how does she become such a strong Hurricane and weaken to a Tropical Storm. That should tell u something . He sure isnt expecting anything like Rita while he was in the eyewall of her for research.

[FloridaHawk82]

...I have heard a few people today remark that "it's only going to be a cat 2 or 3...no big deal" Hey, go get in the back of a pick up and have the driver run up to about 125 mph in the rain and then you stand up!!! Then come back and tell me it's only going to be a cat 2 or 3 no big deal!!! Evil

I agree. Plus, nothing about this storm has been predictable. It would seem to me to be dangerous and irresponsible for anyone to make bold statements about intensity or exact track at this time. Just my 2 cents, which is probably only worth a penny ... on a good day.

[jax]

...I have heard a few people today remark that "it's only going to be a cat 2 or 3...no big deal" Hey, go get in the back of a pick up and have the driver run up to about 125 mph in the rain and then you stand up!!! Then come back and tell me it's only going to be a cat 2 or 3 no big deal!!! Evil

I agree. Plus, nothing about this storm has been predictable. It would seem to me to be dangerous and irresponsible for anyone to make bold statements about intensity or exact track at this time. Just my 2 cents, which is probably only worth a penny ... on a good day.

i agree...

[txwatcher91]

Well, the heat potential in Wilma's path all the way to landfall looks good. IMO at least a CAT 3 with a low end four possible.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, the heat potential in Wilma's path all the way to landfall looks good. IMO at least a CAT 3 with a low end four possible.

The problem is, you are discounting the extremely high shear this will encounter which is why it's forecast to weaken so much. Heat does absolutely nothing if there are other factors against it.

[txwatcher91]

Well, the heat potential in Wilma's path all the way to landfall looks good. IMO at least a CAT 3 with a low end four possible.

The problem is, you are discounting the extremely high shear this will encounter which is why it's forecast to weaken so much. Heat does absolutely nothing if there are other factors against it.

Yes, but from what I understand, CAT 5's tend to create their own environment where dry air and shear don't hurt it. The only thing that can weaken a CAT 5 is land,EWRC, and cooler waters.

[tronbunny]

This just reinforces my belief that it's time to re-vamp the categorization of Hurricanes...
The Saffir-Simpson scale is too rudimentary to adequately describe the threat to life and property in this age of technology, and instant information.

The public is now de-sensitized to the meanings as they are.

Although, I don't see too many people ever saying "it was just an F1 tornado that wiped out the town"

[djtil]

djtil wrote:
well i think its only going to be a cat 1.

so there.

do you have anything to back that up besides intuition?

yep....i see a track well into the yucatan before recurvature....at which time westerly shear will be strong, and water temps cooler not allowing for restrengthening.

if current models hold up and she spends 24+ hours over the yucatan a cat 1 may even be unlikely.

[djtil]

Yes, but from what I understand, CAT 5's tend to create their own environment where dry air and shear don't hurt it. The only thing that can weaken a CAT 5 is land,EWRC, and cooler waters.

completely incorrect.....no storm can fend off strong shear over time.

[f5]

Katrina caused alot of damage acroos south Flordia as a CAT 1 also at least 15 people lost their lives.ALL HURRICANES ARE DANGEROUS REGARDLESS OF ITS CATEGORY

[JtSmarts]

Also a storm with a very large area of Cat 1/2 winds can cause extreme damage especially if it is moving slow.

[txwatcher91]

Yes, but from what I understand, CAT 5's tend to create their own environment where dry air and shear don't hurt it. The only thing that can weaken a CAT 5 is land,EWRC, and cooler waters.

completely incorrect.....no storm can fend off strong shear over time.

Well, this is just what I read from a book. I have heard some people say it is true, but I don't know if it is for a fact true.

[vbhoutex]

Yes, but from what I understand, CAT 5's tend to create their own environment where dry air and shear don't hurt it. The only thing that can weaken a CAT 5 is land,EWRC, and cooler waters

Try and tell some of our recent Hurricanes that were at CAT5 status that dry air ingested into the core of a Hurricane won't weaken it. I'd be interested to know what book you got that information from. Someone is putting out some very false information.

[inotherwords]

Yes, but from what I understand, CAT 5's tend to create their own environment where dry air and shear don't hurt it. The only thing that can weaken a CAT 5 is land,EWRC, and cooler waters

Try and tell some of our recent Hurricanes that were at CAT5 status that dry air ingested into the core of a Hurricane won't weaken it. I'd be interested to know what book you got that information from. Someone is putting out some very false information.

I think maybe the original poster was thinking about an annular hurricane.

[LSU2001]

Below is a description from NOAA about what to expect from a CAT 1 and CAT 2 storm. As you can see neither is a walk in the park!!!
Tim


Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane. Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.

Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.

[Aslkahuna]

Remember too, that for 100mph storms (low end Cat 2) overland the GUSTS can reach 140mph or higher.

Steve

[inotherwords]

I've been in both a 1 and a medium strength 2, and while they were both scary as heck because I had no way to know if what was screaming outside was the peak of the storm or not, they really were not that bad, in my opinion. I suffered moderate landscape damage and had power out for about a day each time. I knew others who were without power for a week. These categories cause a lot of inconvenience and are annoying, and can end up costing a lot of money to repair stuff that's below your windstorm policy deductible, things such as carports and pool cages, and blown off roof tiles, etc.