Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

#1821 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:15 pm

Still didn't get an answer - did the UKMET shift south on this new run? I'm just wondering (not the other w word

) because if it did, it would seem to my untrained mind, that the consensus is shifting south. Now, I would hope I'm wrong, unless it shifts so far south as to miss FL entirely....Anyway - would love to know

#1822 Postby **O Town** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:16 pm

Still alot of banding to be annular. IMO She is looking alot more symmetrical though.

LanceW · #1823 Postby **LanceW** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:21 pm

Can someone decode this? What does it mean?

SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1510 UTC THU OCT 20 2005

THE 12Z NAM HAS COMPLETED. THE GFS HAS BEGUN WITH 32
CANADIAN...12 MEXICAN AND 9 CARIBBEAN STATIONS IN FOR THE
DUMP. ALSO INCLUDED WERE 10 USAF DROPSONDE REPORTS AND 17
NOAA G-IV DROPSONDE REPORTS.

12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
RIW/72672 - PURGED WINDS 785 MB AND UP...TOO FAST/ERRATIC.
DRA/72387 - 10142...GROUND EQUIP FAILURE.
PASY/70414 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM...IN FOR GFS.
LWX/72403 - LATE...NOT IN FOR THE NAM...IN FOR GFS.
TUS/72274 - 10142...GROUND EQUIP FAILURE.

CARR/SDM/NCO/NCEP
[/i]

6SpeedTA95 · #1824 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:22 pm

O Town wrote:

Still alot of banding to be annular. IMO She is looking alot more symmetrical though.

She's not annular but she is looking healthier.

Foladar0 · #1825 Postby **Foladar0** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:24 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:Has the UKMET shifted south? I know it's a "model to look at" according to the model guidance sticky, but how reliable does it tend to be?

I was wondering this too.

nequad · #1826 Postby **nequad** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:26 pm

It means the 12Z GFS had a good representation of the atmospher in and around Wilma. In theory...this should make the model run better. But that has yet to be decided.

Weatherfreak14 · #1827 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:27 pm

Man yes, Wilma is looking very organized right now.

#1828 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:28 pm

She doesn't look like she wanted that larger eye. Her eye looks to be getting tight again.

SunnyThoughts · #1829 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:32 pm

Was watching the weather channel earlier, one of the mets ( can't remember which one ) was showing a close up of the eye, and said the eye would probably clear out late this afternoon..and would look spectacular afterwards. He didn't say anything about it becoming annular though.

#1830 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:34 pm

The GFDL went from "Lining itself up w/ the NHC track" and now it has collapsed again. GFS is still in line w/ the NHC. What's going on? Someone please explain this.

#1831 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:35 pm

The GFDL went from "Lining itself up w/ the NHC track" and now it has collapsed again. GFS is still in line w/ the NHC. What's going on? Someone please explain this.

Weatherfreak14 · #1832 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:39 pm

Not sure... But it looks for the past few days that track has change ever so little in position.

ConvergenceZone · #1833 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:41 pm

Since the latest discussion says:

"Wilma is now expected to
spend enough time in or near the Yucatan to result in a
significantly weaker storm in the Gulf when it approaches Florida."

I"m wondering, does this now suppose to be a cat 1 at landfall? or does it suppose to still be a cat 2 at landfall? Just curious..

Weatherfreak14 · #1834 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:44 pm

Now the track is more to the NW so it will go over a smaller part of the yucatan and therefore still a Cat 3 at landfall.

#1835 Postby **melhow** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:45 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Since the latest discussion says:

"Wilma is now expected to
spend enough time in or near the Yucatan to result in a
significantly weaker storm in the Gulf when it approaches Florida."

I"m wondering, does this now suppose to be a cat 1 at landfall? or does it suppose to still be a cat 2 at landfall? Just curious..

From the Max Mayfield NHC televised update thread earlier today, my paraphrase of what he said:

basically, NHC has it coming in a little south of Charlotte Harbor, but warns that there is still a pretty good level of uncertianty with the exact track for FL. He warns that the track could shift North as far as Tampa, and south as far as the Keys. He urges to not focus on the dotted line, but on the cone. He also mentions that the wind field is very large, and that the weather for the SE peninsula will begin to deteroriate mid day Saturday. He fears that people will get weary of the storm will stop paying attention. He feels that FL should be on their toes beginning Saturday, as some models have the storm accelorating quickly. He feels that the storm will most likely be a strong 2 to a 3.

6SpeedTA95 · #1836 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:47 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Since the latest discussion says:

"Wilma is now expected to
spend enough time in or near the Yucatan to result in a
significantly weaker storm in the Gulf when it approaches Florida."

I"m wondering, does this now suppose to be a cat 1 at landfall? or does it suppose to still be a cat 2 at landfall? Just curious..

Well I thought the NHC was saying it would be a 3 at landfall at this time yesterday. So I assume that means it'll be a two or one which is what a lot of us figured anyways. The TCHP is low aroundthe florida peninsula and as slow as its moving it wont be a major cane at landfall in the US.

#1837 Postby **melhow** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:51 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Since the latest discussion says:

"Wilma is now expected to
spend enough time in or near the Yucatan to result in a
significantly weaker storm in the Gulf when it approaches Florida."

I"m wondering, does this now suppose to be a cat 1 at landfall? or does it suppose to still be a cat 2 at landfall? Just curious..

Well I thought the NHC was saying it would be a 3 at landfall at this time yesterday. So I assume that means it'll be a two or one which is what a lot of us figured anyways. The TCHP is low aroundthe florida peninsula and as slow as its moving it wont be a major cane at landfall in the US.

Ack! No, wrong. NHC said in the televised conference at noon today cat. 2 or 3, so major cane if it's a 3.

#1838 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:53 pm

I still say the eye will not go over land. For the last few hours it has been going NW and that would put it just off shore. I would like to ask if any one has seen the warm edds in the gulf. That is what I am going by and that it will be a strong 3 low 4 at land fall.

txwatcher91 · #1839 Postby **txwatcher91** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:55 pm

storms in NC wrote:I still say the eye will not go over land. For the last few hours it has been going NW and that would put it just off shore. I would like to ask if any one has seen the warm edds in the gulf. That is what I am going by and that it will be a strong 3 low 4 at land fall.

Yes, there are several warm eddys ahead of it. I say 3 with low end 4 possible.

#1840 Postby **ColinDelia** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:57 pm

storms in NC wrote:I still say the eye will not go over land. For the last few hours it has been going NW and that would put it just off shore. I would like to ask if any one has seen the warm edds in the gulf. That is what I am going by and that it will be a strong 3 low 4 at land fall.

Look at the shear though ::
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-1.html

Increasing from 10-40+ knots (currently) between the Yucutan and Florida coast.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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