UNOFFICIAL..Wilma #11; touch farther north; CAT 2/3 SW FL

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

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Forecast 11:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... wilma.html

I included a shift to the left with this forecast after 48 hours, but still expect a southwestern Florida strike; the biggest difference is a northeastward motion across the peninsula instead of an east-northeastward motion. CAT 2/3 expected at US landfall. Explanations included in discussion. As for Cancun/Cozumel, all I can say, is you've got to feel bad for them down there...second time this year.

Scott

[caneivan]

Last fram a wobble to the north. if this becomes a north turn we could see a strong CAT 3 or weak CAT 4.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow this is aggressive for you guys...

[ncweatherwizard]

Whether or not this hits the Yucatan doesn't affect the intensity that much at Florida--shear will get hold of this thing and weaken it. If it moves over land, part of the eye may even stay over water. If the entire center moves over land, it will be back over water shortly after. So regardless, a Cat 2/3 for Florida at worst.

On second note, I'm thinking a low end Cat 3 or a Cat 2 when Wilma reaches Florida--which doesn't seem overly aggressive. Of course, with a combination of shear, and lower energy content in the waters at the shelf, it could weaken more, but I'm going to take the safe route here.

[storms in NC]

Whether or not this hits the Yucatan doesn't affect the intensity that much at Florida--shear will get hold of this thing and weaken it. If it moves over land, part of the eye may even stay over water. If the entire center moves over land, it will be back over water shortly after. So regardless, a Cat 2/3 for Florida at worst.

On second note, I'm thinking a low end Cat 3 or a Cat 2 when Wilma reaches Florida--which doesn't seem overly aggressive. Of course, with a combination of shear, and lower energy content in the waters at the shelf, it could weaken more, but I'm going to take the safe route here.

True to a point. If it makes it back up to a strong 5 the shears will not knot it back down to a cat 2 that fast. I do say a strong 3 low 4 at landfall.
The warm waters is what is going to help it stay to a 3.But there will be NO cat 5 at landfall. 3-4 is bad as it is