Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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krysof

#1921 Postby krysof » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:49 pm

Poor Yucatan, the NHC shows a full fledged Cat 5 making landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, deaths could be in the 10,000's there.
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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#1922 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:49 pm

LBAR, A98 and BAMD are saying more north up the penninsula.
The LBAR has been consistent all along.
The A98 has flip flopped, and is settling on a northern option right now.
But the BAMD has been taking a far southern route all along, down near Miami or Cuba, until now. Why the sudden change??? Doesn't it pretty much use GFS input data? Why is this run so different and different from the other BAM's?
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#1923 Postby x-y-no » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:49 pm

Damar91 wrote:Just one question, how is the likelyhood of interaction with Mexico more likely, when the storm has started to take the turn that was expected all along?


This part of the discussion adresses that:

WILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY
THE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE
LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY TAKE THREE SHORT WAVES TO LIFT WILMA OUT OF
THE YUCATAN.



Personally, I'm not sold on the stall over land. I think we may see a slowdown ner the tip of Yucatan, and maybe a glancing landfall - but not the long stall several models are seeing.
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Derek Ortt

#1924 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:52 pm

a cat 2 will still devastate the Keys, especially if they get a surge from Florida Bay
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#1925 Postby Damar91 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:53 pm

Models.......Back and forth......Back and forth....... :grr: They seem to change with almost every advisory.
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#1926 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:53 pm

Image
Wind prob has everything from a Cat to Cat4 of the Yucatan.
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#1927 Postby curtadams » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:54 pm

Some good news for the Yucatan: last recon shows the eyewall open to the south. Judging by satellite, some dry land air may be sneaking in.
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krysof

#1928 Postby krysof » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:56 pm

curtadams wrote:Some good news for the Yucatan: last recon shows the eyewall open to the south. Judging by satellite, some dry land air may be sneaking in.


unfortunately the Yucatan impact will be catastropic because eyewall could easily close as the ERC is not officially over
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krysof

#1929 Postby krysof » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:56 pm

curtadams wrote:Some good news for the Yucatan: last recon shows the eyewall open to the south. Judging by satellite, some dry land air may be sneaking in.


unfortunately the Yucatan impact will be catastropic because eyewall could easily close as the ERC is not officially over and because of Wilma's strength
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#1930 Postby vacanechaser » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:58 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Just one question, how is the likelyhood of interaction with Mexico more likely, when the storm has started to take the turn that was expected all along?


This part of the discussion adresses that:

WILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY
THE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE
LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY TAKE THREE SHORT WAVES TO LIFT WILMA OUT OF
THE YUCATAN.



Personally, I'm not sold on the stall over land. I think we may see a slowdown ner the tip of Yucatan, and maybe a glancing landfall - but not the long stall several models are seeing.


well, this is one of the rare times I would have to agree with you.. :wink:

i dont think that the stall or slow down will be as significant or stall at all as the models are suggesting either... All I have herd is that this is a pretty big trof coming and that it should weaken the ridge significantly if I am correct...

The only thing is he is talking about the 12z runs.. those are the complete data runs correct??


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Hurricane Intercept Research Team

truballer#1

#1931 Postby truballer#1 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:58 pm

looking good
Image
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#1932 Postby markymark8 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:59 pm

Damar91 wrote:The disscusion says that the likelihood of interaction with Mexico is more likely, how can that be when the N-NNW turn they have been expecting has occured?
Wilma is not movin NNWEST. In the discussion she is moving to the NW. The discussion also says there will be a bend back to the west due to high pressure building back in which should keep Wilma over land and weaken her bigtime. Wilma looks to be now a cat 2 or 1 at landfall. That is great news for Florida. Its alot better news knowing Florida will not be getting a major hurricane most likeley now. The Yucatan will get one of the hardest hits ever maybe so all our thoughts should be with them now. This is a Yucatan storm. I can only imagine what the damage will be if she stalls at winds 150 to 160mph. That would be a nightmare for sure not to mention deadley flooding as well up to 40 inches in places the NHC says. I think when she gets to Florida Naples will be the hardest hit area in the state of Florida if this track verifies.
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#1933 Postby Damar91 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:59 pm

Does anyone know the status of that trough, is it as big as they thought?
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krysof

#1934 Postby krysof » Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:00 pm

The death toll could be in the 10,000's.
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#1935 Postby tampaflwx » Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:00 pm

several model runs ago the BAMD was showing a stall over the yucatan and then coming up under cuba possibly toward south florida. Now it has shifted much more north toward the sarasota area.

Instead, the GFDL now shows that extreme south path, stalling over the yucatan and heading underneath cuba. Could this imply a drastic shift north? Just food for thought...

Image

Image
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#1936 Postby inotherwords » Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:00 pm

cmdebbie wrote:
"I don't think Faux News has any credibility whatsoever. Sorry."


Out of curiosity, who do you think has credibility? All day you have been knocking what others do or say. I realize that this is a stressful time; however, perhaps you could take your frustrations out somewhere else.


Why don't you back off? The only other thing I challenged today was why a person in central FL was freaking out and opening two threads covering the same subject.

If you think I'm rude for suggesting a shock jock is more credible than the NHC, then I don't really know what to tell you. Some people like get their news from sensationalist sources, some don't. I'm sitting here on the coast in a Cat 2 evac. zone with an 82 year old mother who won't evacuate. Want to change places with me? I'd love to be a couple hundred miles inland and right now the last thing I want to hear is someone giving out information from a sensationalist talk show host who isn't getting his info from the NHC.

Sorry if this offends you, but GMAB.
Last edited by inotherwords on Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1937 Postby Damar91 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:01 pm

If you would read the post, I didn't say it was moving NNWEST, I said it had started to make the turn to the n-nw, not the direction it was going!
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#1938 Postby AZS » Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:02 pm

Who thinks that this kind of Hotel can handle a CAT 5 ????

Image

:eek:
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#1939 Postby KBBOCA » Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:02 pm

Thought some folks might appreciate this link for Cancun radar:

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
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#1940 Postby yoda » Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:02 pm

Scorpion wrote:Looks NNW now. Definitely making the turn. Cozumel might escape the worst. Doesnt look at all like its burying itself in the Yucatan.

Um, no...

1843z 18.73N, 85.58W
2116z 18.78N, 85.7W
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