Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[joseph01]

just want to remind everyone of the remarkably similar path taken by the 1921 category 3 storm that hit tampa bay, the last direct hurricane experienced by tampa bay still to this day. also notice the date.

We could also show Isabell, which formed in the same area, and look where that went. In fact, we could go back in history and pick a variety of tracks that started where this one did and went everywhere else but Tampa. What about Mitch? What makes the 1921 storm so relevant except that it might support your own personal theory?

I don't think these historical track variations serve any purpose but to unduly frighten people unless we're willing to go back and document if the myriad of other complex conditions that affected the 1921 storm were exactly the same conditions that exist today with this one. And I seriously doubt they were.

Perhaps it was just an additional post on a tropical weather enthusiasts board.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The eye is clearing out fast...This could very well gain those 8 knots.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[superfly]

It could get back to cat 5 status but major canes don't usually deal well with land interaction.

[inotherwords]

just want to remind everyone of the remarkably similar path taken by the 1921 category 3 storm that hit tampa bay, the last direct hurricane experienced by tampa bay still to this day. also notice the date.

We could also show Isabell, which formed in the same area, and look where that went. In fact, we could go back in history and pick a variety of tracks that started where this one did and went everywhere else but Tampa. What about Mitch? What makes the 1921 storm so relevant except that it might support your own personal theory?

I don't think these historical track variations serve any purpose but to unduly frighten people unless we're willing to go back and document if the myriad of other complex conditions that affected the 1921 storm were exactly the same conditions that exist today with this one. And I seriously doubt they were.

Perhaps it was just an additional post on a tropical weather enthusiasts board.

Perhaps it could be a learning experience for all if there was a valid rationale to accompany the post.

[O Town]

Wow, since I ate dinner and came back the eye is almost clear. Looking like she may regain the cat 5 status. Cancun is definatley going to get blasted, althouth they will be on the "good" side of the storm, but I dont think it will much matter with the way she is looking now. She will probably do some strenthing right before brushes the coast of Mexico. Bad timing for them.

[SkeetoBite]

Enhanced version of image above:

[O Town]

Almost looks like she is starting to do the pinwheel eye. Like Isabel. But I think she is just clearing out her eye.

[TS Zack]

687
URNT12 KNHC 202210Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/2139Z
B. 18 DEG 51 MIN N
85 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2430 MA
D. 110
E. 220 DEG 13 NM
F. 295 DEG 127 KT
G. 207 DEG 15 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 13 C/ 3052 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTHWEST
M. C 35
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1124A WILMA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 145 KT N QUAD 1840Z
SFC WIND FROM DROPSONDE


She is weakening. 923MB!

[joseph01]

just want to remind everyone of the remarkably similar path taken by the 1921 category 3 storm that hit tampa bay, the last direct hurricane experienced by tampa bay still to this day. also notice the date.

We could also show Isabell, which formed in the same area, and look where that went. In fact, we could go back in history and pick a variety of tracks that started where this one did and went everywhere else but Tampa. What about Mitch? What makes the 1921 storm so relevant except that it might support your own personal theory?

I don't think these historical track variations serve any purpose but to unduly frighten people unless we're willing to go back and document if the myriad of other complex conditions that affected the 1921 storm were exactly the same conditions that exist today with this one. And I seriously doubt they were.

Perhaps it was just an additional post on a tropical weather enthusiasts board.

Perhaps it could be a learning experience for all if there was a valid rationale to accompany the post.

When that becomes neccessary, this place is doomed. At least, the fun in being here, anyway.

[wxmann_91]

It could get back to cat 5 status but major canes don't usually deal well with land interaction.

Unlike northern GOMmers, this one is heading WNW, not N, and the waters off the coast of the Yucatan are quite deep, meaning the Heat Content won't suddenly drop off just as it is making landfall. In fact, the time of the ERC couldn't have been worse, expect Wilma to be strengthening as she makes landfall in the Yucatan. And, unlike Emily, Wilma is a large hurricane, meaning even if it makes landfall south of Cozumel, Cancun could still receive extreme damage. In that case, areas like Cozumel and Playa del Carmen could be completely obliterated.

[inotherwords]

just want to remind everyone of the remarkably similar path taken by the 1921 category 3 storm that hit tampa bay, the last direct hurricane experienced by tampa bay still to this day. also notice the date.

We could also show Isabell, which formed in the same area, and look where that went. In fact, we could go back in history and pick a variety of tracks that started where this one did and went everywhere else but Tampa. What about Mitch? What makes the 1921 storm so relevant except that it might support your own personal theory?

I don't think these historical track variations serve any purpose but to unduly frighten people unless we're willing to go back and document if the myriad of other complex conditions that affected the 1921 storm were exactly the same conditions that exist today with this one. And I seriously doubt they were.

Perhaps it was just an additional post on a tropical weather enthusiasts board.

Perhaps it could be a learning experience for all if there was a valid rationale to accompany the post.

When that becomes neccessary, this place is doomed. At least, the fun in being here, anyway.

Since when is crying FIRE in a crowded theater fun? Unless you get off on that kind of nonsense.

[Bgator]

It could get back to cat 5 status but major canes don't usually deal well with land interaction.

Unlike northern GOMmers, this one is heading WNW, not N, and the waters off the coast of the Yucatan are quite deep, meaning the Heat Content won't suddenly drop off just as it is making landfall. In fact, the time of the ERC couldn't have been worse, expect Wilma to be strengthening as she makes landfall in the Yucatan. And, unlike Emily, Wilma is a large hurricane, meaning even if it makes landfall south of Cozumel, Cancun could still receive extreme damage. In that case, areas like Cozumel and Playa del Carmen could be completely obliterated.

Its NOT moving WNW NW with a possible Northerly compnent and its not a wobble its been there for 5 or 6 frams thats like 3 hours!

[skysummit]

687
URNT12 KNHC 202210Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/2139Z
B. 18 DEG 51 MIN N
85 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2430 MA
D. 110
E. 220 DEG 13 NM
F. 295 DEG 127 KT
G. 207 DEG 15 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 13 C/ 3052 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTHWEST
M. C 35
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1124A WILMA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 145 KT N QUAD 1840Z
SFC WIND FROM DROPSONDE


She is weakening. 923MB!

I thought she was looking better and better by the minute, but now it looks like her eye is closing off again. I'm starting to lean to a "non-cat5" in the Yuc.

[truballer#1]

look at this

shows it gain cat 5 again

[hicksta]

Id listen to Wxman he knows his stuff... DO NOT look at the short term track.. Look at the long term. They average them out

It could get back to cat 5 status but major canes don't usually deal well with land interaction.

Unlike northern GOMmers, this one is heading WNW, not N, and the waters off the coast of the Yucatan are quite deep, meaning the Heat Content won't suddenly drop off just as it is making landfall. In fact, the time of the ERC couldn't have been worse, expect Wilma to be strengthening as she makes landfall in the Yucatan. And, unlike Emily, Wilma is a large hurricane, meaning even if it makes landfall south of Cozumel, Cancun could still receive extreme damage. In that case, areas like Cozumel and Playa del Carmen could be completely obliterated.

Its NOT moving WNW NW with a possible Northerly compnent and its not a wobble its been there for 5 or 6 frams thats like 3 hours!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

just want to remind everyone of the remarkably similar path taken by the 1921 category 3 storm that hit tampa bay, the last direct hurricane experienced by tampa bay still to this day. also notice the date.

We could also show Isabell, which formed in the same area, and look where that went. In fact, we could go back in history and pick a variety of tracks that started where this one did and went everywhere else but Tampa. What about Mitch? What makes the 1921 storm so relevant except that it might support your own personal theory?

I don't think these historical track variations serve any purpose but to unduly frighten people unless we're willing to go back and document if the myriad of other complex conditions that affected the 1921 storm were exactly the same conditions that exist today with this one. And I seriously doubt they were.

Perhaps it was just an additional post on a tropical weather enthusiasts board.

Perhaps it could be a learning experience for all if there was a valid rationale to accompany the post.

When that becomes neccessary, this place is doomed. At least, the fun in being here, anyway.

Since when is crying FIRE in a crowded theater fun? Unless you get off on that kind of nonsense.

This is not crying FIRE. This is a possibility. We are in the cone.
This is nothing like fire- it is just discussion of a possibility.

[6SpeedTA95]

If the eyewall would close up she's still over some warm waters with good SST and TCHP the eyewall has been disorganized all day.

[DESTRUCTION5]

look at this

shows it gain cat 5 again

I don't know what that is but it is way off base

[inotherwords]

just want to remind everyone of the remarkably similar path taken by the 1921 category 3 storm that hit tampa bay, the last direct hurricane experienced by tampa bay still to this day. also notice the date.

We could also show Isabell, which formed in the same area, and look where that went. In fact, we could go back in history and pick a variety of tracks that started where this one did and went everywhere else but Tampa. What about Mitch? What makes the 1921 storm so relevant except that it might support your own personal theory?

I don't think these historical track variations serve any purpose but to unduly frighten people unless we're willing to go back and document if the myriad of other complex conditions that affected the 1921 storm were exactly the same conditions that exist today with this one. And I seriously doubt they were.

Perhaps it was just an additional post on a tropical weather enthusiasts board.

Perhaps it could be a learning experience for all if there was a valid rationale to accompany the post.

When that becomes neccessary, this place is doomed. At least, the fun in being here, anyway.

Since when is crying FIRE in a crowded theater fun? Unless you get off on that kind of nonsense.

This is not crying FIRE. This is a possibility. We are in the cone.
This is nothing like fire- it is just discussion of a possibility.

Striking New Orleans is a possibility, too. I guess I have a different standard for the discussions here. I like to see them backed with facts, otherwise what's the point? Isn't it instructive to point out that no two tracks are truly identical, and why? It's really a shame that this kind of request for intelligent discussion is viewed as spoiling someone's fun and that people are attacked for asking for this kind of reasoning.

[mvtrucking]

Cancun's Forecast:

Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow Night

Check Flight Delays


Heavy Rain / Wind Low
74° F

Precip: 80%

Tonight,
Showery rains containing strong gusty winds and heavy downpours at times. Low 74F. Winds ENE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall possibly over two inches.



Heavy Rain / Wind High
88° F

Precip: 100%

Tomorrow,
Showery rains containing strong gusty winds and heavy downpours at times. High 88F. NNE winds at 70 to 90 mph, increasing to 80 to 100 mph. Rainfall possibly over two inches. Much higher winds possible near point of landfall.


Check Flight Delays


Heavy Rain / Wind Low
74° F

Precip: 60%

Tomorrow night,
Showery rains containing strong gusty winds and heavy downpours at times. Low 74F. WSW winds at over 100 mph, diminishing to 80 to 100 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Rainfall possibly over two inches.