Best case...Wilma between the Keys and Cuba....

[sprink52]

....is there any solid forcast reasoning for this?

[Recurve]

Hey! Best case for WHO?

[gilbert88]

Hey! Best case for WHO?

Well said.

[soonertwister]

Not for the Keys, and for sure not for Havana.

[sprink52]

Hey...far enough south of you guys to minimize your problems

[soonertwister]

....is there any solid forcast reasoning for this?

Have you looked at the five day cone at the NHC site? Everyone within that cone should treat this hurricane and though the center is going to go right over their house.

Just last year a hurricane came up west of the Gulf coast of Florida, and turned just a few degrees to the right a few hours ahead of time, and people who were well within the cone were shocked when their homes and business were devastated. That's just plain foolish, especially with a hurricane as big and powerful as this one.

All that basically means that everyone from the northeastern Yucatan to most of the western half of Cuba and the Cayman Islands, to all of Florida not north and west of the Big Bend area should treat this cane like their own.

[Recurve]

Hey...far enough south of you guys to minimize your problems

Agree a non-direct hit is better than the eye over your house!
Still...there isn't a lot of room between here and La Habana. Surge could be deadly. Lots of us are just feet above MSL.

If it spares some place like Tampa, OK, I'll take it -- but you have to come help me get the sharks out of the living room and then rebuild.

[sprink52]

What is plain foolish...to look at the cone and consider it?...or not consider it. I have looked at all of the information and consider all of it. So which part of this is foolish?

[soonertwister]

The "best" average track takes the eye pretty much over your house, but as the cone shows, it could be far enough north or south of you for you to escape significant damage.

But always prepare for the worst.