Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[caneman]

Plotting the coordinates as best as possible for last couple hours. West movement looks to have just about stopped. Perhaps NNW or North.

[Scorpion]

Those models are still taking it too much into the Yucatan.

[CronkPSU]

I noticed the new GFDL, the LBAR still locked into the Tampa Bay/St. Pete.

hmmm GFDL's new run would have a huge impact on orlando

[DESTRUCTION5]

I noticed the new GFDL, the LBAR still locked into the Tampa Bay/St. Pete.

hmmm GFDL's new run would have a huge impact on orlando

GFDL What the? Thats the NHC98?

[johngaltfla]

Wilma's eye is contracting on radar - she is getting stronger again - another wobble toward the N-NW too.


http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html

Nice link and yes, I concur; definite wobble NNW...

[THead]

Those models are still taking it too much into the Yucatan.

I have no idea if its going over the yucatan or not, but if it doesn't, and the eye stays in the channel, I'm really going to have to start listening to these people that say these huge storms have a will to live, and seem to go wherever will keep them the strongest. If this thing misses the Yucatan completely, I'll be a believer.........almost.......

[caneman]

I noticed the new GFDL, the LBAR still locked into the Tampa Bay/St. Pete.

hmmm GFDL's new run would have a huge impact on orlando

I personally think GFDL has been out to lunch on this. Heck the Lbar seems to have performed better. NHC has pretty smack dab on.

[Talon402]

The GFDL line just stops next to lake Okeechobee....does that indicate another potential stall (unlikely), or just a fault on the plotting algorithm or something.

[Foladar0]

The GFDL line just stops next to lake Okeechobee....does that indicate another potential stall (unlikely), or just a fault on the plotting algorithm or something.

no stall, just the end of the run i think

[SamSagnella]

The GFDL line just stops next to lake Okeechobee....does that indicate another potential stall (unlikely), or just a fault on the plotting algorithm or something.

No. That indicates the end of the FCST period, meaning it shows a MUCH slower scenario.

[CronkPSU]

The GFDL line just stops next to lake Okeechobee....does that indicate another potential stall (unlikely), or just a fault on the plotting algorithm or something.

just the end of the 5 day model run

[cjrciadt]

Notice none of the models have it moving near 50knts anymore to the N., much slower motion and a possible NE bend after landfall. I hope that is not a trend.

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 210232
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR WILMA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
COZUMEL AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SWAN ISLAND AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR COZUMEL AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A
LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WILMA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE HURRICANE COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 77 MPH... 124 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 87 MPH... 140 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. OUTER RAINBANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY
THE KEYS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$




273
WTNT24 KNHC 210233
TCMAT4
HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z FRI OCT 21 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SWAN ISLAND AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 86.0W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 923 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......110NE 90SE 75SW 110NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 120SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 325SE 175SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 86.0W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 85.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N 86.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 110NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 120SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.8N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 86.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 38.5N 69.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 86.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Foladar0]

Still 150mph / 923mb as of 11 .. really looks like -nothing- has changed

[DESTRUCTION5]

Notice none of the models have it moving near 50knts anymore to the N., much slower motion and a possible NE bend after landfall. I hope that is not a trend.

Huh?

[CronkPSU]

Still 150mph / 923mb as of 11 .. really looks like -nothing- has changed

recon hasn't gotten down there yet

[cjrciadt]

Notice none of the models have it moving near 50knts anymore to the N., much slower motion and a possible NE bend after landfall. I hope that is not a trend.

Huh?

Compared to last night when the GFDL ended near Boston not inside FL. My fear yesterday was a N. jog before or after landfall not a fast NE motion.

[Foladar0]

Still 150mph / 923mb as of 11 .. really looks like -nothing- has changed

recon hasn't gotten down there yet

I know, last time they estimated it though

[cycloneye]

10PM CDT track from NHC.

[skysummit]

Still 150mph / 923mb as of 11 .. really looks like -nothing- has changed

recon hasn't gotten down there yet

Right...there's no reason to change anything yet.