Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[caneman]

But itthe dry air means nothing as far as strengthning........

THIS WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT THE
INTENSIFICATION FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...[/url]

[CronkPSU]

Discussion is disturbing for FL as it states Major Cane possible..

It would have to miss the Yucatan or just barely graze it for a few hours or less for this to have any real chance of verifying, and this is looking more and more unlikely.

are you looking at the same radar loops I am?

http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html

sure looks like it will barely brush the yucatan to me

[Foladar0]

HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...

On the talking tropics show Mike Watkins just said that the sentence above may have huge implications because of the upper pattern may change the 00z models.

What would this do to the 00z models?

[nequad]

Well...data from the NOAA G IV is incorporated into the NCEP models.

This should be the definitive run for the GFS. We'll see.




NCEP Operational Status Message
Fri Oct 21 02:54:16 2005 GMT

NOUS42 KWNO 210251
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0250 UTC FRI OCT 21 2005

21250Z...THE 00Z GFS STARTED ON TIME. NGM MODEL DONE.
NAM MODEL WAS OUT TO T+72HRS.

NCEP RECEIVED 28 DROPSONDE REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV FLYING
RECON FOR HURRICANE WILMA.

00Z RAOB RECAP..

JAN/72235 - 10142..EQUIP PBLM
CDB/70316 - UNAVB...UNFAVORABLE WX

NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[jlauderdal]

HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...

On the talking tropics show Mike Watkins just said that the sentence above may have huge implications because of the upper pattern may change the 00z models.

absolutely, big implications possibly on intensity for florida.

[jkt21787]

But itthe dry air means nothing as far as strengthning........

THIS WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT THE
INTENSIFICATION FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...[/url]

Its shear, not dry air (at least in NHC's/Dr. Beven's belief). Still that statement is probably valid. AT THE LEAST, there would not be any weakening up to landfall.

[DESTRUCTION5]

HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...

On the talking tropics show Mike Watkins just said that the sentence above may have huge implications because of the upper pattern may change the 00z models.

Damn Midnight again..

[caneman]

HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...

On the talking tropics show Mike Watkins just said that the sentence above may have huge implications because of the upper pattern may change the 00z models.

Which way further South than Naples or more North?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks better it has done for the last 24 hours. The eye is back out in a donut. I think its strengthing....In really if theres shear in its not getting to the center then it still strengthing.

[DESTRUCTION5]

HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...

On the talking tropics show Mike Watkins just said that the sentence above may have huge implications because of the upper pattern may change the 00z models.

Which way further South than Naples or more North?

I think he is talking about the Intensity

[cycloneye]

HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...

On the talking tropics show Mike Watkins just said that the sentence above may have huge implications because of the upper pattern may change the 00z models.

Which way further South than Naples or more North?

I think he is talking about the Intensity

caneman about intensity.

[Foladar0]

HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...

On the talking tropics show Mike Watkins just said that the sentence above may have huge implications because of the upper pattern may change the 00z models.

Which way further South than Naples or more North?

North hopefully, or further south that it doesn't hit the keys.
No offense for anyone north or south, I just don't want it anywhere near me.

[caneman]

HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...

On the talking tropics show Mike Watkins just said that the sentence above may have huge implications because of the upper pattern may change the 00z models.

Which way further South than Naples or more North?

I think he is talking about the Intensity

caneman about intensity.

For better or worse at Florida landfall?

[DESTRUCTION5]

HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...

On the talking tropics show Mike Watkins just said that the sentence above may have huge implications because of the upper pattern may change the 00z models.

Which way further South than Naples or more North?

I think he is talking about the Intensity

caneman about intensity.

For better or worse at Florida landfall?

No Question ...Thinking WOrse

[CronkPSU]

caneman-i feel your pain...sometimes these guys can be so non committal and like to tease us with their knowledge

[caneman]

HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...

On the talking tropics show Mike Watkins just said that the sentence above may have huge implications because of the upper pattern may change the 00z models.

Which way further South than Naples or more North?

I think he is talking about the Intensity

caneman about intensity.

For better or worse at Florida landfall?

No Question ...Thinking WOrse

gulp..............

[CHRISTY]

i think this is huge info coming from the noaa jet ...the fact that wilma has been moving right..which models were turning wilma west into cancun that may not happen i think this will big for florida we may end up with a stronger storm...

[6SpeedTA95]

The eye finally starting to get its act together.

[cycloneye]

caneman yes it all depends on how strong Wilma arrives at Florida if Wilma goes inland over the Yucatan or not and the discussion talked about a possibility that what the gulfstream jet informed with it's data possibly Wilma may not get inland at the Yucatan.

[CronkPSU]

i think this is huge info coming from the noaa jet ...the fact that wilma has been moving right..which models were turning wilma west into cancun that may not happen i think this will big for florida we may end up with a stronger storm...

that would be my guess as well, where is derek?