Worst case scenario setting up.

[dhweather]

Should Wilma remain just offshore from the Yucatan, that would mean
that Cazumel will get cat 4/5 winds for a long duration from the north,
pushing a large surge into the area plus devastating winds.

The bay that Cancun is in is most certainly filling up with water and will
continue to until the eye is north of Cancun's latitude. They too will suffer
devastating winds.

This may wipe out the Yucatan's tourism indutry for many years.

[Droop12]

If Wilma stays offshore then they would be spared complete devastation, but even if they endure the western eyewall they'll have sustained cat 2-3 winds for 12-18 hours. That will still do immense damage.

[sprink52]

Also...it appears that Wilma is tracking to the right (North). This is confirmed by Cancun radar, satelite and NOAA G4 jet. (See 11 PM discussion) This doesn't bode well for us in South Florida. The models aren't indicating what the storm is actually doing now. That reduces the credibility of the models in the short run for this storm. One can only wonder what it means for 72 ~96 hrs out.

[johngaltfla]

Also...it appears that Wilma is tracking to the right (North). This is confirmed by Cancun radar, satelite and NOAA G4 jet. (See 11 PM discussion) This doesn't bode well for us in South Florida. The models aren't indicating what the storm is actually doing now. That reduces the credibility of the models in the short run for this storm. One can only wonder what it means for 72 ~96 hrs out.

I concur. But I'm not trusting the globals at all at this point. Something is screwing up their output, IN MY OPINION ONLY, as based again on the comments in tonight's DISCO.

I still adhere to a track similar to 1873, but a bit north.

[StormWarning1]

Latest Cancun radar loop shows Wilma bending back to the West a little.

[dhweather]

It will still wobble a bit. If Wilma doesn't get much closer to the coast,
they will only experience cat 3 conditions, which will be devastatin on their
own.

This would be bad for Florida, as the system would weaken only modestly as she approaches.

[Weatherfreak14]

Yeah, this morning this track looks like the eye may miss the yucatan.

[PhillyWX]

Yeah, this morning this track looks like the eye may miss the yucatan.

The GFS is going to be way wrong on this. No stall for the Yucutan, my friends.

[Windtalker1]

Yeah, this morning this track looks like the eye may miss the yucatan.

The GFS is going to be way wrong on this. No stall for the Yucutan, my friends.

I agree....Mid Sunday West Coast of Florida Hit as predicted a couple days ago....no way a Mon/Tues hit.

[soonertwister]

I'm another that's not buying the stall, but if as NHC says, the steering currents are very weak, then by the time Wilma gets picked up and starts her rapid approach toward FL, she could be much farther north than previously predicted. Given her current movement and trend toward due north, if there are minimal to no steering currents, she could just putter along at about 6 mph for 2 or 2-1/2 days before turning northeast.

That means that just on sheer momentum of the storm she could wind up close to 24 N before making the sharp turn. I'm starting to think that Tampa may be in more danger than previously thought.

[StormWarning1]

It's not trending due north.

It is heading into the YP and will slow to a crawl, maybe not a complete stall.

It will be much weaker as it enters the Gulf.

Good news for Fla.

[soonertwister]

It's not trending due north.

It is heading into the YP and will slow to a crawl, maybe not a complete stall.

It will be much weaker as it enters the Gulf.

Good news for Fla.

From the latest NHC discussion:

THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE CENTER FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TRACK ALSO REQUIRES AN EARLIER RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE AND A FASTER PROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

Told ya.

[shaggy]

It's not trending due north.

It is heading into the YP and will slow to a crawl, maybe not a complete stall.

It will be much weaker as it enters the Gulf.

Good news for Fla.

From the latest NHC discussion:

THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE CENTER FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TRACK ALSO REQUIRES AN EARLIER RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE AND A FASTER PROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

Told ya.

NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THE CENTER OF WILMA TO MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN TODAY... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON HOW LONG WILMA WILL SPEND OVER LAND... AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHILE ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...REMAINS TO THE EAST OF MOST OF
THE MODELS AND KEEPS WILMA ON LAND FOR LESS THAN 18 HOURS.
OBVIOUSLY... A LONGER STAY OVER YUCATAN COULD CAUSE MORE WEAKENING
THAN FORECAST...BUT THE OPPOSITE IS ALSO TRUE.


not sure what discussion you got that piece of discussion from but its not in the 11 am advisory this morning!!!If anything the forecast is right of guidance which suggest most models carry her further inland into the YUC

[melhow]

I'm another that's not buying the stall, but if as NHC says, the steering currents are very weak, then by the time Wilma gets picked up and starts her rapid approach toward FL, she could be much farther north than previously predicted. Given her current movement and trend toward due north, if there are minimal to no steering currents, she could just putter along at about 6 mph for 2 or 2-1/2 days before turning northeast.

That means that just on sheer momentum of the storm she could wind up close to 24 N before making the sharp turn. I'm starting to think that Tampa may be in more danger than previously thought.

*bump*

Anyone else on board with this?

[soonertwister]

I didn't say that Wilma was trending north, I said she was trending toward due north. In Wilma discussion 25 put at at 10AM CDT (you can read it in the sticky thread at the top of the page) it specifically says that Wilma will just pass over the extreme northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, and will reach the westerlies much faster than shown by the models.

Trending right doesn't put Wilma deeper into the Yucatan, trending left does. And what is trending right from NW? Trending toward the north. Wilma's bearing was at 325, and that's 10 degrees north of northwest.

Stop being so single-minded about this, all you have to do is look at the IR satellite loop to see that this cane isn't going to spend very much time over land, and certainly not for 1-1/2 days. She might spend as little as 12-16 hours over land or even less.

Since about 80 of the hurricane circulation will be remaining over water, any weakening will not be dramatic, and she may in fact briefly return to a category 4 hurricane after exiting north of Cancun. The big question then becomes how fast does she accelerate toward FL, where, and how much strength will she retain when she gets there.

Considering the rapid motion projected by the NHC, if she actually reaches FL as a strong category 2 or even a category 3, she will remain at least a category 1 hurricane across the peninsula and into the Atlantic. Category two on exit from FL is not entirely out of the question.

[melhow]

I didn't say that Wilma was trending north, I said she was trending toward due north. In Wilma discussion 25 put at at 10AM CDT (you can read it in the sticky thread at the top of the page) it specifically says that Wilma will just pass over the extreme northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, and will reach the westerlies much faster than shown by the models.

Trending right doesn't put Wilma deeper into the Yucatan, trending left does. And what is trending right from NW? Trending toward the north. Wilma's bearing was at 325, and that's 10 degrees north of northwest.

Stop being so single-minded about this, all you have to do is look at the IR satellite loop to see that this cane isn't going to spend very much time over land, and certainly not for 1-1/2 days. She might spend as little as 12-16 hours over land or even less.

Since about 80 of the hurricane circulation will be remaining over water, any weakening will not be dramatic, and she may in fact briefly return to a category 4 hurricane after exiting north of Cancun. The big question then becomes how fast does she accelerate toward FL, where, and how much strength will she retain when she gets there.

Considering the rapid motion projected by the NHC, if she actually reaches FL as a strong category 2 or even a category 3, she will remain at least a category 1 hurricane across the peninsula and into the Atlantic. Category two on exit from FL is not entirely out of the question.

So that covers the acceleration and intensity, but how about the landfall?

[mascpa]

I'm another that's not buying the stall, but if as NHC says, the steering currents are very weak, then by the time Wilma gets picked up and starts her rapid approach toward FL, she could be much farther north than previously predicted. Given her current movement and trend toward due north, if there are minimal to no steering currents, she could just putter along at about 6 mph for 2 or 2-1/2 days before turning northeast.

That means that just on sheer momentum of the storm she could wind up close to 24 N before making the sharp turn. I'm starting to think that Tampa may be in more danger than previously thought.

*bump*

Anyone else on board with this?

No, not going to happen. Look at the bigger picture.

[Tri-State_1925]

I didn't say that Wilma was trending north, I said she was trending toward due north.

It doesn't look like that over the past few hours to me.

[joseph01]

I'm another that's not buying the stall, but if as NHC says, the steering currents are very weak, then by the time Wilma gets picked up and starts her rapid approach toward FL, she could be much farther north than previously predicted. Given her current movement and trend toward due north, if there are minimal to no steering currents, she could just putter along at about 6 mph for 2 or 2-1/2 days before turning northeast.

That means that just on sheer momentum of the storm she could wind up close to 24 N before making the sharp turn. I'm starting to think that Tampa may be in more danger than previously thought.

*bump*

Anyone else on board with this?

No, not going to happen. Look at the bigger picture.

Could you give a brief synopsis?

[mascpa]

Last wobble was a little more west, next wobble will be a little north.