Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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Derek Ortt

#2261 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:28 pm

research studies have shown that a hurricane CANNOT be annular over waters this warm as EWRC's will likely occur.

It needs to be over cooler water, like where Isabel was
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#2262 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:28 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wilma has colder cloud tops...

but the western side is highly eroded. The two images clearly show this point well. This should prevent cat 5 again. But I really don't want to focus on that, because this is still about as bad as you can get.


Maybe good for Yuc if it barely brushes...
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2263 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:28 pm

The eye is becoming sharp in clearing out....In the deep convection will likely wrap around.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2264 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:29 pm

The eye is becoming sharp in clearing out....In the deep convection will likely wrap around.
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#2265 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:30 pm

It better take a more northward componet. It still has the "jogs" to the west. I don't see how it is going to miss Cozumel.
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#2266 Postby O Town » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:30 pm

SamSagnella wrote:Actually, in the last few frames it appears as though Wilma was able to keep the dry air out of her core circulation and is now taking on th 'appearance' of an annular hurricane.

Annular? No way. Look at the difference between Katrina and Wilma just posted. Katrina looks way more annular. There is still way to much banding for Wilma to be anything close to annular, IMO. :wink:
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#2267 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:34 pm

Looking at the radar loop, my best guess at this point is a hit between Cozumel and Cancun. Cozumel gets the SW eyewall, Cancun the NW eyewall. Probably will still be a 4 though based on the GHCC images.
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#2268 Postby SamSagnella » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:36 pm

O Town wrote:
SamSagnella wrote:Actually, in the last few frames it appears as though Wilma was able to keep the dry air out of her core circulation and is now taking on th 'appearance' of an annular hurricane.

Annular? No way. Look at the difference between Katrina and Wilma just posted. Katrina looks way more annular. There is still way to much banding for Wilma to be anything close to annular, IMO. :wink:


I knew as soon as I posted it that I was too hasty in choosing the right wording for my reply and that someone would point out that it isn't annular. The reason I put appearance in quotes was that the CDO is taking a much more rounded and bowling ball appearance in the last couple hours. I know it isn't actually annular, but was just remarking on the recent changes in the CDO appearance and apologize for not being clearer in what I meant. :x :) :oops: 8-)
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#2269 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:37 pm

THead wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:i think this is huge info coming from the noaa jet ...the fact that wilma has been moving right..which models were turning wilma west into cancun that may not happen i think this will big for florida we may end up with a stronger storm...


Why would we end up with a stronger storm in florida? There's going to be significant shear in the area and the TCHP is horrid around the florida peninsula. Through the keys its still pretty low but much better than the western side of the peninsula


From the 11pm discussion:
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF WILMA MISSES YUCATAN
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN SPITE OF ALL THE NEGATIVE FACTORS IT
COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.


I would say its possible but it'll have to gain significant forward motion. SST is high enough in throughout the gulf to support a major hurricane if shear remains fairly contained and the storm moves fast. If it creeps along at <12 mph I do not see this thing hitting florida at cat3, 4 or 5
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#2270 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:41 pm

Boy if this motion keeps up, it sure looks like it has a beeline set for Cancun.
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#2271 Postby Cape Verde » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:41 pm

cjrciadt wrote:http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/
Whoa saved this pic
<P>Terrific photo!
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#2272 Postby THead » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:43 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
THead wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:i think this is huge info coming from the noaa jet ...the fact that wilma has been moving right..which models were turning wilma west into cancun that may not happen i think this will big for florida we may end up with a stronger storm...


Why would we end up with a stronger storm in florida? There's going to be significant shear in the area and the TCHP is horrid around the florida peninsula. Through the keys its still pretty low but much better than the western side of the peninsula


From the 11pm discussion:
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF WILMA MISSES YUCATAN
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN SPITE OF ALL THE NEGATIVE FACTORS IT
COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.


I would say its possible but it'll have to gain significant forward motion. SST is high enough in throughout the gulf to support a major hurricane if shear remains fairly contained and the storm moves fast. If it creeps along at <12 mph I do not see this thing hitting florida at cat3, 4 or 5


Yeah, I was assuming, and hoping they meant it would only POSSIBLY be a Cat 3. I'd be amazed if it was any stronger, but we've been amazed too much this year. Like when someone posted recon the other night at 901mb while she was bombing, i said 'rrrrrrrrrrrright'...
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Scorpion

#2273 Postby Scorpion » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:44 pm

The trough will pick it up, so it will be moving quickly towards Florida after the Yucatan. SST's shouldnt be much of an issue.
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#2274 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:45 pm

THead wrote:Yeah, I was assuming, and hoping they meant it would only POSSIBLY be a Cat 3. I'd be amazed if it was any stronger, but we've been amazed too much this year. Like when someone posted recon the other night at 901mb while she was bombing, i said 'rrrrrrrrrrrright'...

And I had to correct you to tell you it was in fact right. I still hope you didn't hurt yourself afterward! I know I almost tipped over in my chair when I saw it! :lol:
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#2275 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:45 pm

THead wrote:Yeah, I was assuming, and hoping they meant it would only POSSIBLY be a Cat 3. I'd be amazed if it was any stronger, but we've been amazed too much this year. Like when someone posted recon the other night at 901mb while she was bombing, i said 'rrrrrrrrrrrright'...


Yeah I went to bed and told the guys on another message board we'd wake up to a 4 maybe just maybe a 5, I wake up and the CP is 882mbs. I was pissed off that i even went to bed that night. I shoulda just keep shoving down the brewskies :)
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CHRISTY

#2276 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:47 pm

Image clearly intensifying......
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#2277 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:47 pm

Scorpion wrote:The trough will pick it up, so it will be moving quickly towards Florida after the Yucatan. SST's shouldnt be much of an issue.


As I said SSTs are still very conducive in the Gulf, SST's play a bigger role in a fast moving storm. So if its fast moving SST's will indeed be the factor that helps the thing maintain strength. If it slows down TCHP becomes a bigger factor because a strong hurricane will sap the SST's if it just parks itself in the gulf.
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#2278 Postby O Town » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:47 pm

SamSagnella wrote:
O Town wrote:
SamSagnella wrote:Actually, in the last few frames it appears as though Wilma was able to keep the dry air out of her core circulation and is now taking on th 'appearance' of an annular hurricane.

Annular? No way. Look at the difference between Katrina and Wilma just posted. Katrina looks way more annular. There is still way to much banding for Wilma to be anything close to annular, IMO. :wink:


I knew as soon as I posted it that I was too hasty in choosing the right wording for my reply and that someone would point out that it isn't annular. The reason I put appearance in quotes was that the CDO is taking a much more rounded and bowling ball appearance in the last couple hours. I know it isn't actually annular, but was just remarking on the recent changes in the CDO appearance and apologize for not being clearer in what I meant. :x :) :oops: 8-)


Got ya Sam :wink: Understood :lol: It has definitley got a better looking eye and the convection around it has gotten more symmetrical.
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#2279 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:47 pm

Ok who's updating the Models tonight? GFS is ready to go..
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#2280 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:48 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Ok who's updating the Models tonight? GFS is ready to go..


You are! Go for it! :)
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