wxcrazytwo # 5 update

[wxcrazytwo]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



IT WILL GET FARTHER NORTH BEFORE THE SECOND AND THIRD TROUGH BRING IT NE.

[GulfHills]

Now this I can understand. Thanks!

[CronkPSU]

me no likey the track at all!!!!

timeframe and intensity?

[wxcrazytwo]

Late Sunday to Early Monday, as Cat 3.

[johngaltfla]

Nice graphics! Similar to what my forecast was down below yours in the list of messages. I based mine on historical climatology...Just curious, what influences do you see moving the storm more NE in 48 hours? I love to compare notes, LOL...

[wxcrazytwo]

Nice graphics! Similar to what my forecast was down below yours in the list of messages. I based mine on historical climatology...Just curious, what influences do you see moving the storm more NE in 48 hours? I love to compare notes, LOL...

I did not base mine on historicl climatology because this year has yet to follow climo. The first trough that was suppose to pick it up didn't materialize. When she enters the gulf, the second one will tug her a little more north and thus, the turn to the NE. The thirs trough will boot it NE, but not after it has headed more north than most models have it. I believe landfall will be slightly north of Ft. Myers. I'd say 100-150 miles south of Tampa.

[johngaltfla]

Nice graphics! Similar to what my forecast was down below yours in the list of messages. I based mine on historical climatology...Just curious, what influences do you see moving the storm more NE in 48 hours? I love to compare notes, LOL...

I did not base mine on historicl climatology because this year has yet to follow climo. The first trough that was suppose to pick it up didn't materialize. When she enters the gulf, the second one will tug her a little more north and thus, the turn to the NE. The thirs trough will boot it NE, but not after it has headed more north than most models have it. I believe landfall will be slightly north of Ft. Myers. I'd say 100-150 miles south of Tampa.

Well, based on this, you're thinking similar to my thoughts, just a different method. I think it's more like 75 miles south with Cat 2 winds in Tampa but blowing out to sea instead of into the bay. I think the areas of Punta Gorda, Sanibel-Captiva and Pine Island/Cape Coral will take the beating this time...

[wxcrazytwo]

Nice graphics! Similar to what my forecast was down below yours in the list of messages. I based mine on historical climatology...Just curious, what influences do you see moving the storm more NE in 48 hours? I love to compare notes, LOL...

I did not base mine on historicl climatology because this year has yet to follow climo. The first trough that was suppose to pick it up didn't materialize. When she enters the gulf, the second one will tug her a little more north and thus, the turn to the NE. The thirs trough will boot it NE, but not after it has headed more north than most models have it. I believe landfall will be slightly north of Ft. Myers. I'd say 100-150 miles south of Tampa.

Well, based on this, you're thinking similar to my thoughts, just a different method. I think it's more like 75 miles south with Cat 2 winds in Tampa but blowing out to sea instead of into the bay. I think the areas of Punta Gorda, Sanibel-Captiva and Pine Island/Cape Coral will take the beating this time...

I think so too. The models cannot handle what WILMA is dishing out. We should have a fix by, but we don't..

[johngaltfla]

Nice graphics! Similar to what my forecast was down below yours in the list of messages. I based mine on historical climatology...Just curious, what influences do you see moving the storm more NE in 48 hours? I love to compare notes, LOL...

I did not base mine on historicl climatology because this year has yet to follow climo. The first trough that was suppose to pick it up didn't materialize. When she enters the gulf, the second one will tug her a little more north and thus, the turn to the NE. The thirs trough will boot it NE, but not after it has headed more north than most models have it. I believe landfall will be slightly north of Ft. Myers. I'd say 100-150 miles south of Tampa.

Well, based on this, you're thinking similar to my thoughts, just a different method. I think it's more like 75 miles south with Cat 2 winds in Tampa but blowing out to sea instead of into the bay. I think the areas of Punta Gorda, Sanibel-Captiva and Pine Island/Cape Coral will take the beating this time...

I think so too. The models cannot handle what WILMA is dishing out. We should have a fix by, but we don't..

That's my thinking. Wilma is defying the math and causing major headaches for all....