Wilma Likely Back to Cat 5 Status

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

Wilma Likely Back to Cat 5 Status

#1 Postby MWatkins » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:43 pm

Not sure where this goes...but just looking at satellite imagery as of 0415Z...Wilma does appear to have regained Cat 5 status. The eye is extremly well defined and there is a warm dot right in the center. Recon is still a little ways away...but I sure hope they come in at 10,000 feet.

Going to be interesting to see what they find...

MW
0 likes   
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11166
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#2 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:46 pm

yep, shes filling out on the left side now
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2072
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:
Contact johngaltfla

Re: Wilma Likely Back to Cat 5 Status

#3 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:46 pm

MWatkins wrote:Not sure where this goes...but just looking at satellite imagery as of 0415Z...Wilma does appear to have regained Cat 5 status. The eye is extremly well defined and there is a warm dot right in the center. Recon is still a little ways away...but I sure hope they come in at 10,000 feet.

Going to be interesting to see what they find...

MW


I tend to agree. Then again, I'm not agreeing with alot of the models. I'm not trusting the GFS/GFDL models at all with this storm yet.
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#4 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:50 pm

Mike, sadly I have to agree with you.

Also it is still tracking right towards Cozumel and Cancun.
0 likes   
Top
BReb
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 203
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:39 pm

#5 Postby BReb » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:55 pm

Looks that way. Plus, there's a patch of particularly warm water right in the Cozumel-Cancun area:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5292go.jpg

But if you look at the same heat content map, you see that the water is very cold just north-northwest of Cancun in the gulf.
Last edited by BReb on Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:56 pm

This is very likely a cat5...She looked a thousand times worst this afternoon when they found that 150 mph winds. I think its closer to 165 to 170 mph right now. With pressures maybe below 910 millibars.
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#7 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:57 pm

BReb wrote:Looks that way. Plus, there's a patch of particularly warm water right in the Cozumel-Cancun area:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5292go.jpg


Wow. What a bad place for that orange.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1545
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#8 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:00 am

I disagree. Western semi-circle is still pretty eroded. She needs a bit more time yet.
0 likes   
Top
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

#9 Postby MWatkins » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:04 am

Recon getting ready to punch through the RFQ...guess we will find out in the next 30 mins or so...

0456. 1942N 08554W 03039 5377 119 125 096 096 126 02667 0000000000
0457 1940N 08555W 03058 5408 118 100 108 108 109 02655 0000000000
0457. 1939N 08556W 03044 5438 117 090 132 130 092 02611 0000000000



MW
0 likes   
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
Top
User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1626
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

#10 Postby sponger » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:05 am

Kind of makes you want to stay up for the 2am! I know 1/2 of you are saying, "well, its only 1 day tommorow" I could sleep Saturday. This is worse than drugs. At least with them, you finally run out of money!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#11 Postby skysummit » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:06 am

sponger wrote:Kind of makes you want to stay up for the 2am! I know 1/2 of you are saying, "well, its only 1 day tommorow" I could sleep Saturday. This is worse than drugs. At least with them, you finally run out of money!


I'm staying up.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6400
Age: 61
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#12 Postby boca » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:08 am

I have to be at work at 8am tomorrow what's wrong with me.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#13 Postby skysummit » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:08 am

boca wrote:I have to be at work at 8am tomorrow what's wrong with me.


Same here.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MysticOne
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 85
Age: 69
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 3:29 pm
Location: Ormond Beach, FL and Lake Guntersville, AL

#14 Postby MysticOne » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:09 am

sponger wrote:Kind of makes you want to stay up for the 2am! I know 1/2 of you are saying, "well, its only 1 day tommorow" I could sleep Saturday. This is worse than drugs. At least with them, you finally run out of money!


Gads. you read my mind!!! I was just saying that to myself!! :eek: LOL
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#15 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:13 am

No cat 5 according to recon. Maybe not even 150mph.
0 likes   
Top
kevin

#16 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:16 am

*sigh*

Recon is not done investigating.
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#17 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:16 am

kevin wrote:*sigh*

Recon is not done investigating.

That was a northern quadrant pass including the NE quad. Pressure will be higher as well. Sorry, no cat 5.
0 likes   
Top
kevin

#18 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:17 am

Its not that I _want_ a category 5, its unqualified statements. There is no evidence yet for a category 5.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2072
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:
Contact johngaltfla

#19 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:17 am

skysummit wrote:
sponger wrote:Kind of makes you want to stay up for the 2am! I know 1/2 of you are saying, "well, its only 1 day tommorow" I could sleep Saturday. This is worse than drugs. At least with them, you finally run out of money!


I'm staying up.


So am I. Even though I have to get up in 4 hours. :eek:
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#20 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:17 am

It sure as heck looks alot better then it did earliler when it was going through that EWRC. With the clouded up eye. The eye is clear now. This season has been nothing but a surpize.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], tolakram and 481 guests