Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[f5]

The eye is now 30 miles wide (from 35). She might be ever-so-slightly strengthening, but she's running out of water.

not if she turns right she won't.Hurricanes know where the land is i don't think they have a world map and say how can i do the most damage without land disrupting my circulation

[SamSagnella]

Hurricanes know where the land is i don't think they have a world map and say how can i do the most damage without land disrupting my circulation

Would you mind explaining what the heck you mean by that....that doesn't make any sense.

[Bocadude85]

f5 wrote:
Hurricanes know where the land is i don't think they have a world map and say how can i do the most damage without land disrupting my circulation


Would you mind explaining what the heck you mean by that....that doesn't make any sense.



what he is saying is that sometimes hurricanes seem to change their direction as if they were trying to avoid land, a few examples would be Ivan going around Jamica, or Katrina diving south into Miami

[f5]

Hurricanes know where the land is i don't think they have a world map and say how can i do the most damage without land disrupting my circulation

Would you mind explaining what the heck you mean by that....that doesn't make any sense.

i'm no expert on this but i seen serveral hurricane that aproach land than at the last minute they went back out to see.ex Ophelia avoided a NC landfall Katrina goes across the everglades you may recall(path of least resistance)Joe Bastardi describe Katrina as a horse running to the water

[SamSagnella]

There are other examples to the contrary...one of which would be Charley making a hard right turn into land far ealier than expected. As far as I'm concerned, there is no way hurricanes avoid land -- there are atmospheric conditions in place that dictate their eventual paths.

One more thing to add to this... we've known for days that Wilma would eventually turn toward the north and eventually NE, it is the influence of a more southwesterly flow aloft that is causing the turn, not the absurd notion that Wilma is 'bouncing' off of the Yucatan.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I would say Wilma is atleast going north and maybe even north-east!

[f5]

Charley made a hard right turn due to a unusually strong trough for early to mid august.its a mystery why some hurricanes avoid land and some don't

[Bocadude85]

There are other examples to the contrary...one of which would be Charley making a hard right turn into land far ealier than expected. As far as I'm concerned, there is no way hurricanes avoid land -- there are atmospheric conditions in place that dictate their eventual paths.


well with charley it was different he was being steered by a trough, of course all this is just speculation as there is no proven theory

[StrongWind]

I suspect that this thread will break the record of 110 pages of Katrina.

Ding, ding, ding! This, in and of itself, should be grounds to have the name retired.

[jlauderdal]

Hurricanes know where the land is i don't think they have a world map and say how can i do the most damage without land disrupting my circulation

Would you mind explaining what the heck you mean by that....that doesn't make any sense.

i'm no expert on this but i seen serveral hurricane that aproach land than at the last minute they went back out to see.ex Ophelia avoided a NC landfall Katrina goes across the everglades you may recall(path of least resistance)Joe Bastardi describe Katrina as a horse running to the water

absolutely, Ivan stayed off jamiaca when it looked like it was going right in..ti just posted down in the recon thread and mentioned this possibility in the virtual studio tonight. hurricanes go towards warm water too, this is not that uncommon, wilma could still go inland this morning butremember the earlier noaa jet did not find flow to support a big push inland per the last nhc disco.

[markymark8]

How much do u think Wilma will weaken if she makes landfall? It is the most important question of this whole dealio because that will determine how strong she will be when she hits Florida. If she continues this current motion with a slight bend to the west shes gonna hit Cancun or a little south of there but if she decides to go actually due north then she could just skirt the coast.

[Bocadude85]

latest recon fix 19.6 N 86.1 W hasnt had much westward motion the last few hours

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Did she beat the IRENE FORUM YET?

[Wirbelsturm]

Actually, if you watch the radar of Charlie coming ashore, it did swerve at the last minute. If it hadn't, Fort Myers would've gotten hit a lot harder! A lot of canes "swerve" just as their circulation encounters land. Dennis, Ivan, Charlie, and Rita all did this.

[jlauderdal]

How much do u think Wilma will weaken if she makes landfall? It is the most important question of this whole dealio because that will determine how strong she will be when she hits Florida. If she continues this current motion with a slight bend to the west shes gonna hit Cancun or a little south of there but if she decides to go actually due north then she could just skirt the coast.

thats the big question but the last few frames it went N and maybe a bit east, this is all critical for the future strenght for florida, wobbles are najor deal right now and through the next 6 hours or so as to how much if any time it spends over land.

[tampaflwx]

can someone please post an updated one of those images with ALL of the models?

[SamSagnella]

can someone please post an updated one of those images with ALL of the models?

Save this link and amend the storm number in the URL as needed (Alpha will be storm #25, Vince was 23 etc.). http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif

[mtm4319]

Current extrap shows a direct hit on Cancun.



Compare to the previous extrap:

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I don't think Wilma wants to touch land she is moving due north now according to the sat.

[DCA]

Wilma just took a sizeable wobble NE and will likely miss her forecast point (to the east again).