Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[tampaflwx]

can someone please post an updated one of those images with ALL of the models?

Save this link and amend the storm number in the URL as needed (Alpha will be storm #25, Vince was 23 etc.). http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif

that shows the main models, but i was referring to the image that shows DOZENS of models...do you know where i can find that?

[SamSagnella]

Use an satellite image that updates more often than 1/2 hour for short-term fluctuations/wobbles.

GOES-12 Interactive Infrared Weather Satellite Image Viewer

[markymark8]

can someone please post an updated one of those images with ALL of the models?

Save this link and amend the storm number in the URL as needed (Alpha will be storm #25, Vince was 23 etc.). http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif

If it takes the GFDL route then Cuba will tear it up and and probably make landfall at a strong cat 1 or real weak 2. That model would be the best for Florida it seems what u all think???

[Bocadude85]

Wilma looks to miss her next forcast point to the east

[SamSagnella]

that shows the main models, but i was referring to the image that shows DOZENS of models...do you know where i can find that?

I know the you're talking about, but for some reason I can't find the link to it right now. Damn it's too late to be up! Sorry...hopefully someone else can dig it up.

[SamSagnella]

If it takes the GFDL route then Cuba will tear it up and and probably make landfall at a strong cat 1 or real weak 2. That model would be the best for Florida it seems what u all think???

Disregard that GFDL run -- look at how long it has the storm lingering over the Yucatan when it is quite clear at this point that that will NOT occur. I have never seen the GFDL perform as poorly or as inconsistantly as it has with 24L...

[tampaflwx]

if this storm doesnt even make a landfall on the yucatan, will it just speed up and head towards florida? if so, would that make a more southern or northern path?

[markymark8]

If it takes the GFDL route then Cuba will tear it up and and probably make landfall at a strong cat 1 or real weak 2. That model would be the best for Florida it seems what u all think???

Disregard that GFDL run -- look at how long it has the storm lingering over the Yucatan when it is quite clear at this point that that will NOT occur. I have never seen the GFDL perform as poorly or as inconsistantly as it has with 24L...

Yeah!! its weird though how it worked so good with Katrina.

[tampaflwx]

and where are the 06z models?????

[mtm4319]

[SamSagnella]

That right there is the W O R S T case scenario, especially if it is strengthening as is approaches.

[mtm4319]

Well, so much for the reds wrapping all the way around. The dark oranges look to be expanding, though.

[tampaflwx]

as of right now if it went in the same direction it has been going, it would just touch the coast, and you can bet on a few more N or NNE wobbles....i think it wont make any yucatan landfall

[SamSagnella]

The unbalanced mass of Wilma's CDO (and therefore momentum) with its higher concentration on the east side is what is causing this 'prolonged wobble' to the right of track. If a strong burst of convection occurs in the northern eyewall, it will be 'yanked' back to the left...obviously unsure if that will occur.

[tampaflwx]

appears that the closer we get to landfall, the more divergence there is in the track... shouldn't it be the other way around?

[markymark8]

Well, so much for the reds wrapping all the way around. The dark oranges look to be expanding, though.

But..... She does look alot healthier than say 2 hours ago. Thats for sure. Her overall eye has made a decent comeback even though its wider now.

[SamSagnella]

It will be very interesting to see what the recon flight finds pressure-wise in its final pass of the mission.

[tampaflwx]

is it just me or does wilma appear to be speeding up ever so slightly with each frame as it continues its more northern progression?

[mtm4319]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ICG12-07022005294.jpg

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ICG12-07102005294.jpg

Open these images in new windows, then switch between one and the other. It looks like it made a south wobble. It's not that discernible in the zoomed-out images, but run the loop on high zoom and isolate 0702 UTC and 0710 UTC and you'll see what I mean.

[f5]

if she misses a yucatan landfall i'm afraid south flordia is in deep trouble