fOR THE LAST 2 DAYS PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SAYING IT WILL STALL. iT WILL GET BLOCKED TO THE NORTH and it will weaken on the Yucatan. But when I stop looking at the models and listening to everyone else and just open my own eyes and look at this thing I notice a few things...
1) she isn't heading W or WNW... she has been going NW or NNW since 11am. people have discounted this "wobble" all day, but it looks like the real deal.
2) her outer clouds passed through Tampa today and are in like Tallahassee now. I see no shearing of the cloud pattern nor do I see anything trying to block the outflow in any quadrant other than maybe to her west if she were trying to go to the Yucatan.
3) She has been "leaning" north all day and finally tonite her motion has been matching that lean and seems to be intending on that direction for her near future.
4) Rather than a slow down, her speed has picked up throughout the day.
Why is the media so afraid to point out the obvious that anyone can see for themselves and stick with the model data well after the fact that it has proven wrong.
The sad thing is many that should have started evacuating held off based on the reiteration all day by everyone that this thing would stall for a few days.
Let the pandemonium begin this morning when the models flip flop again and the timetable gets put back on track to where it never should have shifted away from.
Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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tampastorm
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Skeetergirl
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TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:fOR THE LAST 2 DAYS PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SAYING IT WILL STALL. iT WILL GET BLOCKED TO THE NORTH and it will weaken on the Yucatan. But when I stop looking at the models and listening to everyone else and just open my own eyes and look at this thing I notice a few things...
1) she isn't heading W or WNW... she has been going NW or NNW since 11am. people have discounted this "wobble" all day, but it looks like the real deal.
2) her outer clouds passed through Tampa today and are in like Tallahassee now. I see no shearing of the cloud pattern nor do I see anything trying to block the outflow in any quadrant other than maybe to her west if she were trying to go to the Yucatan.
3) She has been "leaning" north all day and finally tonite her motion has been matching that lean and seems to be intending on that direction for her near future.
4) Rather than a slow down, her speed has picked up throughout the day.
Why is the media so afraid to point out the obvious that anyone can see for themselves and stick with the model data well after the fact that it has proven wrong.
The sad thing is many that should have started evacuating held off based on the reiteration all day by everyone that this thing would stall for a few days.
Let the pandemonium begin this morning when the models flip flop again and the timetable gets put back on track to where it never should have shifted away from.
Spoken like a Lady paying attention!
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tampastorm
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TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:fOR THE LAST 2 DAYS PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SAYING IT WILL STALL. iT WILL GET BLOCKED TO THE NORTH and it will weaken on the Yucatan. But when I stop looking at the models and listening to everyone else and just open my own eyes and look at this thing I notice a few things...
1) she isn't heading W or WNW... she has been going NW or NNW since 11am. people have discounted this "wobble" all day, but it looks like the real deal.
2) her outer clouds passed through Tampa today and are in like Tallahassee now. I see no shearing of the cloud pattern nor do I see anything trying to block the outflow in any quadrant other than maybe to her west if she were trying to go to the Yucatan.
3) She has been "leaning" north all day and finally tonite her motion has been matching that lean and seems to be intending on that direction for her near future.
4) Rather than a slow down, her speed has picked up throughout the day.
Why is the media so afraid to point out the obvious that anyone can see for themselves and stick with the model data well after the fact that it has proven wrong.
The sad thing is many that should have started evacuating held off based on the reiteration all day by everyone that this thing would stall for a few days.
Let the pandemonium begin this morning when the models flip flop again and the timetable gets put back on track to where it never should have shifted away from.
Extremely well said. I totally agree. The center will not come ashore, and we are looking at the definitely possibility (probability?) of a major hurricane hitting Florida. I don't know if we can even rule out a Cat 4.
I never bought into Wilma stalling in the Yucatan or weakening to a marginal Cat 2 by the time it reaches Florida.
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Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 24
Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on October 21, 2005
...Northern eyewall nearing Cozumel...
...Weather conditions should continue to deteriorate rapidly over
northeastern Yucatan as extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma
approaches...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
west of San Felipe to celestun.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Belize from the
border with Mexico southward to Belize City.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the
provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the
Isle of Youth.
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 20.0 north...longitude 86.2 west or about 55 miles... 90
km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.
Wilma is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph...9 km/hr. On
this track...the core of Wilma will be very near Cozumel and the
northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by midday today.
However...Wilma has a large circulation and hurricane conditions
are probably being experienced in Cozumel and adjacent areas. Cancun
radar shows strong rainbands over Cozumel and Cancun.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
before landfall...and there is a possibility that Wilma regains
category five strength during the next several hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.
Latest minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 929 mb...27.43 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7-11 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall on
the Yucatan Peninsula.
Wilma is expected to produce 10 to 20 inches of rain through
Sunday across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...
with isolated amounts of 40 inches possible...particularly over
higher terrain of western Cuba. Outer rainbands will continue to
affect portions of southern Florida...especially the Keys...with
some 2 to 4 inch rains possible through Sunday.
NOAA buoy 42003 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico indicates that large
swells generated by Wilma have propagated well into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. These swells will likely affect portions of the
northern Gulf Coast on Friday.
Repeating the 4 am CDT position...20.0 N... 86.2 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150
mph. Minimum central pressure... 929 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 am
CDT.
Forecaster Avila
Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on October 21, 2005
...Northern eyewall nearing Cozumel...
...Weather conditions should continue to deteriorate rapidly over
northeastern Yucatan as extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma
approaches...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
west of San Felipe to celestun.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Belize from the
border with Mexico southward to Belize City.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the
provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the
Isle of Youth.
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 20.0 north...longitude 86.2 west or about 55 miles... 90
km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.
Wilma is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph...9 km/hr. On
this track...the core of Wilma will be very near Cozumel and the
northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by midday today.
However...Wilma has a large circulation and hurricane conditions
are probably being experienced in Cozumel and adjacent areas. Cancun
radar shows strong rainbands over Cozumel and Cancun.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
before landfall...and there is a possibility that Wilma regains
category five strength during the next several hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.
Latest minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 929 mb...27.43 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7-11 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall on
the Yucatan Peninsula.
Wilma is expected to produce 10 to 20 inches of rain through
Sunday across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...
with isolated amounts of 40 inches possible...particularly over
higher terrain of western Cuba. Outer rainbands will continue to
affect portions of southern Florida...especially the Keys...with
some 2 to 4 inch rains possible through Sunday.
NOAA buoy 42003 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico indicates that large
swells generated by Wilma have propagated well into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. These swells will likely affect portions of the
northern Gulf Coast on Friday.
Repeating the 4 am CDT position...20.0 N... 86.2 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150
mph. Minimum central pressure... 929 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 am
CDT.
Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Wilma Forecast/Advisory Number 24
Statement as of 09:00Z on October 21, 2005
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
west of San Felipe to celestun.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Belize from the
border with Mexico southward to Belize City.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the
provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the
Isle of Youth.
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.
Hurricane center located near 20.0n 86.2w at 21/0900z
position accurate within 10 nm
present movement toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 5 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 929 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
Max sustained winds 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt.
64 kt....... 75ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
50 kt.......110ne 90se 75sw 110nw.
34 kt.......175ne 150se 120sw 175nw.
12 ft seas..450ne 325se 175sw 450nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 20.0n 86.2w at 21/0900z
at 21/0600z center was located near 19.6n 86.1w
forecast valid 21/1800z 20.4n 86.6w
Max wind 140 kt...gusts 170 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
50 kt...110ne 90se 75sw 110nw.
34 kt...175ne 150se 120sw 175nw.
Forecast valid 22/0600z 21.2n 87.1w...inland
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 75nw.
50 kt...100ne 90se 60sw 100nw.
34 kt...175ne 150se 90sw 175nw.
Forecast valid 22/1800z 21.6n 87.5w...over water
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 75nw.
50 kt...100ne 90se 50sw 100nw.
34 kt...175ne 150se 90sw 175nw.
Forecast valid 23/0600z 22.0n 87.0w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 60se 40sw 75nw.
34 kt...150ne 125se 75sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 24/0600z 23.5n 84.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt...125ne 125se 75sw 100nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 25/0600z 27.0n 80.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
Outlook valid 26/0600z 36.0n 70.0w...extratropical
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 20.0n 86.2w
next advisory at 21/1500z
forecaster Avila
Statement as of 09:00Z on October 21, 2005
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
west of San Felipe to celestun.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Belize from the
border with Mexico southward to Belize City.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the
provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the
Isle of Youth.
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.
Hurricane center located near 20.0n 86.2w at 21/0900z
position accurate within 10 nm
present movement toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 5 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 929 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
Max sustained winds 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt.
64 kt....... 75ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
50 kt.......110ne 90se 75sw 110nw.
34 kt.......175ne 150se 120sw 175nw.
12 ft seas..450ne 325se 175sw 450nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 20.0n 86.2w at 21/0900z
at 21/0600z center was located near 19.6n 86.1w
forecast valid 21/1800z 20.4n 86.6w
Max wind 140 kt...gusts 170 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
50 kt...110ne 90se 75sw 110nw.
34 kt...175ne 150se 120sw 175nw.
Forecast valid 22/0600z 21.2n 87.1w...inland
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 75nw.
50 kt...100ne 90se 60sw 100nw.
34 kt...175ne 150se 90sw 175nw.
Forecast valid 22/1800z 21.6n 87.5w...over water
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 75nw.
50 kt...100ne 90se 50sw 100nw.
34 kt...175ne 150se 90sw 175nw.
Forecast valid 23/0600z 22.0n 87.0w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 60se 40sw 75nw.
34 kt...150ne 125se 75sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 24/0600z 23.5n 84.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt...125ne 125se 75sw 100nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 25/0600z 27.0n 80.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
Outlook valid 26/0600z 36.0n 70.0w...extratropical
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 20.0n 86.2w
next advisory at 21/1500z
forecaster Avila
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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- Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
- Location: Clearwater, Florida ~3 miles from the coast now. We finally moved safely off the barrier island!
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 24
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 21, 2005
Wilma is being tracked by the Cancun radar...NOAA buoy 42056...and
by an Air Force reconnaissance plane. In addition...satellite
images indicate that the cloud pattern is better defined with a
ring of very deep convection surrounding a large eye. The
reconnaissance plane was in the eye and measured a minimum pressure
of 929 mb and so far...the maximum flight level winds at 700 mb are
130 knots. This does not justify an initial intensity of 130 knots
but it is assumed that somewhere within the eyewall these winds are
occurring and have not been sampled by the aircraft yet. Since the
eye is becoming more distinct and is shrinking...some
intensification is possible before landfall. Thereafter...the
effects of land and increasing wind shear will cause Wilma to
gradually weaken.
Wilma is currently moving toward the north-northwest at 5 knots.
Because steering currents are forecast to be weak...track models
move Wilma slowly and in all directions during 24 to 36 hour
period...making this portion of the forecast highly uncertain.
Nevertherless...this pattern calls for little or erratic motion
over northeastern Yucatan or the adjacent waters until the
westerlies expand southward and carry Wilma toward the northeast
beyond 2 to 3 days. This slow motion should continue to delay the
recurvature toward Florida prolonging the agonizing wait. On the
other hand...it gives time for the hurricane to weaken due to the
effects of land and shear. In fact...the GFDL model reflects the
slow motion and has a weakened Wilma just west of Havana Cuba
between days 4 and 5. However...if the eye remains offshore east of
Yucatan like suggested by the last run of the UK model...Wilma
could be stronger than indicated.
Having said all that...there is practically no change from the
previous advisory with the short term forecast be more uncertain
than usual.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/0900z 20.0n 86.2w 130 kt
12hr VT 21/1800z 20.4n 86.6w 140 kt
24hr VT 22/0600z 21.2n 87.1w 115 kt...inland
36hr VT 22/1800z 21.6n 87.5w 115 kt...over water
48hr VT 23/0600z 22.0n 87.0w 105 kt
72hr VT 24/0600z 23.5n 84.5w 95 kt
96hr VT 25/0600z 27.0n 80.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 26/0600z 36.0n 70.0w 60 kt...extratropical
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 21, 2005
Wilma is being tracked by the Cancun radar...NOAA buoy 42056...and
by an Air Force reconnaissance plane. In addition...satellite
images indicate that the cloud pattern is better defined with a
ring of very deep convection surrounding a large eye. The
reconnaissance plane was in the eye and measured a minimum pressure
of 929 mb and so far...the maximum flight level winds at 700 mb are
130 knots. This does not justify an initial intensity of 130 knots
but it is assumed that somewhere within the eyewall these winds are
occurring and have not been sampled by the aircraft yet. Since the
eye is becoming more distinct and is shrinking...some
intensification is possible before landfall. Thereafter...the
effects of land and increasing wind shear will cause Wilma to
gradually weaken.
Wilma is currently moving toward the north-northwest at 5 knots.
Because steering currents are forecast to be weak...track models
move Wilma slowly and in all directions during 24 to 36 hour
period...making this portion of the forecast highly uncertain.
Nevertherless...this pattern calls for little or erratic motion
over northeastern Yucatan or the adjacent waters until the
westerlies expand southward and carry Wilma toward the northeast
beyond 2 to 3 days. This slow motion should continue to delay the
recurvature toward Florida prolonging the agonizing wait. On the
other hand...it gives time for the hurricane to weaken due to the
effects of land and shear. In fact...the GFDL model reflects the
slow motion and has a weakened Wilma just west of Havana Cuba
between days 4 and 5. However...if the eye remains offshore east of
Yucatan like suggested by the last run of the UK model...Wilma
could be stronger than indicated.
Having said all that...there is practically no change from the
previous advisory with the short term forecast be more uncertain
than usual.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/0900z 20.0n 86.2w 130 kt
12hr VT 21/1800z 20.4n 86.6w 140 kt
24hr VT 22/0600z 21.2n 87.1w 115 kt...inland
36hr VT 22/1800z 21.6n 87.5w 115 kt...over water
48hr VT 23/0600z 22.0n 87.0w 105 kt
72hr VT 24/0600z 23.5n 84.5w 95 kt
96hr VT 25/0600z 27.0n 80.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 26/0600z 36.0n 70.0w 60 kt...extratropical
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tampastorm
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tampastorm
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