Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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#2461 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:55 am

Normandy wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:
Normandy wrote:And it wont strike the Yucatan as a 3, at least I dont see how.


Its 115 knots... borderline 3/4.

Per NHC, its initial instensity is 130 knots. Thats 150 mph, a strong 4.


I was referring to the 24hr and 36hr intensity forecasts.
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#2462 Postby Ground_Zero_92 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:56 am

Foladar0 wrote:Amazing .. slowing down ..i don't understand this.


Read the discussion in the Wilma advisories thread. The NHC explains the thinking on the stall. Basically there are no steering currents to move her over the next 2-3 days, then the westerlies pick her up.
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#2463 Postby Anonymous » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:56 am

Keep in mind, they have to 140 kts (160 mph Cat 5) and then INLAND at 115 kts (130-135 mph Cat 3/4)....so, I believe they have it hitting at Cat 5...but weakening by the next forecast point.
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#2464 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:59 am

Their path is explainable in that they are still holding on tenaciously to the model consensus, and key parts of it won't be updating for another hour. Once the GFS updates, then the ripple effect through all the other models that use the GFS will occur for their next runs.
I really want to know what is it that is supposedly going to impede this storms progress and make it stall?? What is supposed to be holding it down? Is some mystery ridge expected to rush right in there and do it? Judging by the outflow pattern, there just is nothing trying to cap this storm from above as far as I can see.
I know I'm not a pro and they should always be relied on in life or death situations... but I don't like the idea that so many people will have lost important travel time if their stall doesn't fully pan out.
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#2465 Postby Foladar0 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:59 am

Ground_Zero_92 wrote:
Foladar0 wrote:Amazing .. slowing down ..i don't understand this.


Read the discussion in the Wilma advisories thread. The NHC explains the thinking on the stall. Basically there are no steering currents to move her over the next 2-3 days, then the westerlies pick her up.

I understand, but from a 3 to 1 over water?
Or is it not going to hit as a 1 anymore?
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#2466 Postby Normandy » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:59 am

mtm4319 wrote:
Normandy wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:
Normandy wrote:And it wont strike the Yucatan as a 3, at least I dont see how.


Its 115 knots... borderline 3/4.

Per NHC, its initial instensity is 130 knots. Thats 150 mph, a strong 4.


I was referring to the 24hr and 36hr intensity forecasts.


Like Floydbuster said, its inland, which is why its a 3.
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#2467 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:00 am

they didnt change the track at all they just pushed it back, shes going to need to go NW from now on to make the next forcast point
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#2468 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:01 am

Normandy wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:
Normandy wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:
Normandy wrote:And it wont strike the Yucatan as a 3, at least I dont see how.


Its 115 knots... borderline 3/4.

Per NHC, its initial instensity is 130 knots. Thats 150 mph, a strong 4.


I was referring to the 24hr and 36hr intensity forecasts.


Like Floydbuster said, its inland, which is why its a 3.


No, I meant that the forecast of 115 knots by the NHC was being represented by Weather Underground as a category 3 (the red dot instead of the purple one). I explained that 115 knots translates to 132 mph, which can be either rounded down to 130 mph (cat 3) or rounded up to 135 mph (cat 4) by the NHC, whichever one they believe is most accurate.
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#2469 Postby Ground_Zero_92 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:05 am

Foladar0 wrote:
Ground_Zero_92 wrote:
Foladar0 wrote:Amazing .. slowing down ..i don't understand this.


Read the discussion in the Wilma advisories thread. The NHC explains the thinking on the stall. Basically there are no steering currents to move her over the next 2-3 days, then the westerlies pick her up.

I understand, but from a 3 to 1 over water?
Or is it not going to hit as a 1 anymore?


They cover this explaining as follows:

"This slow motion should continue to delay the recurvature toward Florida prolonging the agonizing wait. On the other hand...it gives time for the hurricane to weaken due to the effects of land and shear. In fact...the GFDL model reflects the slow motion and has a weakened Wilma just west of Havana Cuba between days 4 and 5. However...if the eye remains offshore east of Yucatan like suggested by the last run of the UK model...Wilma could be stronger than indicated."
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#2470 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:07 am

True that the steering currents are expected to be weak... haven't they been throughout her life? She has been riding slowly along the outer periphery of the atlantic ridging. Why shouldn't she just continue to do so?
Basic physics... things in motion want to stay in motion. Big things in motion want to in a big way!
She's not going to just stop. She's not going to suddenly turn to a more WNW direction in order to hit a point that she doesn't want to go to.
Maybe she missed her connection... she's probably getting the last remnants of any tug helping her go north now... but that just means she'll be slowly petering into the gulf. -where the dreaded shear everyone has been talking about has not yet made its presence known.
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#2471 Postby infonut » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:08 am

I have a question. It's late and I am tired, but, why on all the recon obs you are supposed to multiply by .9 etc for surface winds, but they leave the flight wind speeds when they give the advisories. People comment about the unusual difference in pressure vs wind speed, but it's not out of line if you convert it down. Am I missing something? I thought I have seen people say you go by "surface" winds. :?:

example: 4AM Advisory lists 150 mph winds and 929 mb, which puts the pressure high for the wind speeds, but if it was converted down from the ob of 130kt to 135 mph (.9 factor) wich would correspond with a 929 mb pressure.

oh well, it's late, and I am tired....mentally and physically.
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#2472 Postby Normandy » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:11 am

Hmm by the wind swatch graphic, Cancun is starting to recieve hurricane force winds. They are in for a long day today.
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#2473 Postby ColinDelia » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:16 am

infonut wrote:I have a question. It's late and I am tired, but, why on all the recon obs you are supposed to multiply by .9 etc for surface winds, but they leave the flight wind speeds when they give the advisories. People comment about the unusual difference in pressure vs wind speed, but it's not out of line if you convert it down. Am I missing something? I thought I have seen people say you go by "surface" winds. :?:

example: 4AM Advisory lists 150 mph winds and 929 mb, which puts the pressure high for the wind speeds, but if it was converted down from the ob of 130kt to 135 mph (.9 factor) wich would correspond with a 929 mb pressure.

oh well, it's late, and I am tired....mentally and physically.


The advisories give the estimated sustained winds at the surface. For example, the 5am ET advisory states "Maximum sustained winds...150
mph."

The .9 factor is a rule-of-thumb. Depending on the flight level sometimes a .8 factor is used.

There is an imperfect relationship between the surface pressure and winds. The Saffir Simpson scale gives the relationship between pressure and max wind speed at the surface but again, it is only a rule-of-thumb.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir-Sim ... cane_Scale
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#2474 Postby NateFLA » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:18 am

So, when is the new GFS run so we can see what the next model trends will be?
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#2475 Postby f5 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:20 am

Katrina was 927 mb CAT 3 in mississippi.i guess its due to her enormous size

Image[/
Last edited by f5 on Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2476 Postby markymark8 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:21 am

Lets face it guys even the NHC is scratching their heads on this one. Its basically a watch and see thing now. Does she just skirt the coast and hold her own??? Does she move inland into the Yucatan briefley and weaken a little??? or Does she sit over the Yucatan and the core of Wilma just falls apart and she is nothing but a tropical storm hitting Florida??? In my opinion if she continues to wobble more north like she is now she will stay offshore or make landfall on the northeast Yucatan and if she does make landfall unless she stalls she should get right back in the water and just lose a little strength. She seems to be stairstepping for sure but it sure has changed to more north than west so we shall see.
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#2477 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:22 am

markymark8 wrote:Lets face it guys even the NHC is scratching their heads on this one. Its basically a watch and see thing now. Does she just skirt the coast??? Does she move inland into the Yucatan briefley and weaken a little??? or Does she sit over the Yucatan and the core of Wilma just falls apart and she is nothing but a tropical storm hitting Florida??? In my opinion if she continues to wobble more north like she is now she will stay offshore or make landfall on the northeast Yucatan and if she does make landfall unless she stalls she should get right back in the water and just lose a little strength. She seems to be stairstepping for sure but it sure has changed to more north than west so we shall see.


or does she stall over the water and just sit there and gain strength like the last run of the ukmet suggested!
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#2478 Postby inotherwords » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:23 am

From the 5 a.m. NHC advisory:

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.


Question...if this has been a Cat 5 storm, now a 4, I'm wondering why the surge there is only 7-11 feet. Is that the expected surge for a storm of this category in that area due to topography? I am concerned about surge on the FL coast, particularly after observing Katrina/Rita, which is why I'm watching this carefully. I've heard very divergent opinions from pro mets on what we could expect here.
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#2479 Postby Normandy » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:23 am

f5 wrote:Katrina was 927 mb CAT 3 in mississippi.i guess its due to her enormous size


Katrina was weakening though, this hurricane isnt weakening right now (pressure dropped to 929 on last vortex). I think Cancun might get totally devastated....if the NHC track verifies Cancun will experience hurricane force winde from not till early Monday Morning....thats 3 fulls days of 75 mph+ and probably a day of major hurricane conditions.
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#2480 Postby markymark8 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:25 am

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:
markymark8 wrote:Lets face it guys even the NHC is scratching their heads on this one. Its basically a watch and see thing now. Does she just skirt the coast??? Does she move inland into the Yucatan briefley and weaken a little??? or Does she sit over the Yucatan and the core of Wilma just falls apart and she is nothing but a tropical storm hitting Florida??? In my opinion if she continues to wobble more north like she is now she will stay offshore or make landfall on the northeast Yucatan and if she does make landfall unless she stalls she should get right back in the water and just lose a little strength. She seems to be stairstepping for sure but it sure has changed to more north than west so we shall see.


or does she stall over the water and just sit there and gain strength like the last run of the ukmet suggested!
hey James can u give me the link to the new ukmet run?
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