Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[SkeetoBite]

BAM Brothers now agree with latest UKMET. Edit: in the long term

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=24

[gtalum]

At the rate this storm is moving, it seems the GFDL "burp" two days ago may have been the most accurate run yet!

[jlauderdal]

There is no way this is going to stall and bury itself in the Yucatan. Looks like part of the eye might go over at most. It will need a big jog west to directly impact Cozumel.

Cozumel is getting slammed....they probably are geting major hurricane conditions as we speak...the eyewall is close.

I disagree with the stall. Looks like the system is already caught in the front and just a matter of time before she shoots NE. Perhaps 24 hours.

the current shortwave will not be enough to dig out the system and as it bypasses the system we get very weak if any motion then another sw comes through and helps the process and finally a third one later in the period should finally lift it out. a crobar might get it out now but not this shortwave.

I fully disagree. Look at the 78 hour GFS. She is sitting off Port Charlotte in 78 hours this is fast than the GFDL and indicates to me she will get caught up. This is what I suspect and the GFS seems to verify.

You suspect the GFS seems to verify...well sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. Yes it's a matter of time before it shoots east, duh but this thing is not going to be making some big move to the NE in 24 hours.

Apparantly you're hugging the GFDL. Not a good move for this storm.

I am not hugging any model, I am looking at the synoptic setup and i don't see this thing moving as fast as you do. i don't hug one model like you are doing with GFS. Lets hope it stalls over land and weakens. Stay Safe.

jlauderdal

Another non-hugger... From everything i see, Wilma has been pushed back 72 hours. Three day's ago Wilma was forecast to be off the East Coast Saturday Night.

exactly, caneman is basing the whole thing on gfs and that is fine, i don;t think looking at one model is wise but hey it might verify, hope things workout for you in naples.

[jlauderdal]

BAM Brothers now agree with latest UKMET. Edit: in the long term

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=24

that might be but i would look to something other than bamms right now for support of another model. ortt posted something yesterday to the effect 'dont use bamms" for this storm.

[Air Force Met]

[quote="skysummit"]


How do you load the sat images and stuff like that on google earth? Is there a place to get the overlays?

[skysummit]

How do you load the sat images and stuff like that on google earth? Is there a place to get the overlays?

AFM, in GE, click the option to add an image overlay and put this URL in:
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

You'll have to adjust the image to match the background, but it works!

[skysummit]

AFM...

You can also get model plots, sat images, and other analysis maps that automatically update in Google Earth here:

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=163168

[JPmia]

looks like it is wobbling a little to the NW. Still on forecast track though:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[6SpeedTA95]

looks like it is wobbling a little to the NW. Still on forecast track though:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That little island off the yucatan is getting OWNED hardcore right now. Geez...

She's got some convection coming bakc on the west side of the storm.

[chris_fit]

AFM...

You can also get model plots, sat images, and other analysis maps that automatically update in Google Earth here:

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=163168

downloaded it and clicked on it. How do I use/implement it?

[skysummit]

looks like it is wobbling a little to the NW. Still on forecast track though:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That little island off the yucatan is getting OWNED hardcore right now. Geez...

She's got some convection coming bakc on the west side of the storm.

That little island is Cozumel.

[gtalum]

I feel awful for the residents of Cozumel and the northern Yucatan. We wer ejust in COzumel and Playa del Carmen a few weeks ago. beautiful place with wonderful people. I hope they have a quick recovery.

[6SpeedTA95]

looks like it is wobbling a little to the NW. Still on forecast track though:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That little island off the yucatan is getting OWNED hardcore right now. Geez...

She's got some convection coming bakc on the west side of the storm.

That little island is Cozumel.

Yeah its early cut me some slack here

[skysummit]

AFM...

You can also get model plots, sat images, and other analysis maps that automatically update in Google Earth here:

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=163168

downloaded it and clicked on it. How do I use/implement it?

Ummm....make sure you have GE opened. It should open automatically in there. You should see a lot of different tools in the list to the left. You can check off which items you like.

[otowntiger]

Looking at the latest IR loop it appears that she is unleashing her fury on Cozumel. It looks as if they will be the bullseye. I hope no one is there, that's got to be the worst conditions imaginable right now and will be that way for a while. Does any one have info from there as to what is happening?
BTW she is obviously moving more west now. I thought from the last few coordinate plots it looked like she would miss the YC grazing it only. Now it looks again like she will come on shore.

[skysummit]

Looking at the latest IR loop it appears that she is unleashing her fury on Cozumel. It looks as if they will be the bullseye. I hope no one is there, that's got to be the worst conditions imaginable right now and will be that way for a while. Does any one have info from there as to what is happening?
BTW she is obviously moving more west now. I thought from the last few coordinate plots it looked like she would miss the YC grazing it only. Now it looks again like she will come on shore.

Yea...unleashing is correct! It looked like a little drier air was on the western eyewall, but BOOM! ....she took care of that in an instant.

[shawn67]

Looking at the latest IR loop it appears that she is unleashing her fury on Cozumel. It looks as if they will be the bullseye. I hope no one is there, that's got to be the worst conditions imaginable right now and will be that way for a while. Does any one have info from there as to what is happening?
BTW she is obviously moving more west now. I thought from the last few coordinate plots it looked like she would miss the YC grazing it only. Now it looks again like she will come on shore.

Wobble....take a look at the animated Cancun radar images and speed them up. I see three wobbles during the time lapse and they have a pretty regular cadence to them. We are in the middle to end of one of the west ward wobbles which will be followed by a more northerly wobble. As many posters have said you need to look at the long term picture to see about the direction of the Hurricane

Shawn

[Talon402]

Fox News Channel Met just said the outer eyewall just made landfall on Cozumel island.

[CHRISTY]

true... it been wobbleing like a top it just might miss going completly on land.

[jlauderdal]

Fox News Channel Met just said the outer eyewall just made landfall on Cozumel island.

fox news is always on the right side of the guidance too