Central Atlantic Theory

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terstorm1012
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Central Atlantic Theory

#1 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:08 am

I know everyone is quite busy but I have thought up a theory as to why Cape Verde never really materialized.

There was a lot of dry air over the atlantic this season, and conditions were hostile. Looking back, I recalled that there was a very severe drought in Niger, one of the nations that our Cape Verde protosystems cross...complete with famine conditions. It was caused by the ever increasing size of the Sahara, which creeps southward through the Sahel region of Africa every year.

Given this, lots more Saharan sand and dry air is being blown across the Atlantic. Perhaps that has inhibited our storms. But, since we're in this very active cycle, could the close-in Home Grown storms be here to stay?

anyway, just something I thought up. What do you guys think?
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#2 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:13 am

Good theory, and it is probably one of the reasons why the SAL was so plentiful this season. Another one could be that that the East Atlantic ridging has been rather strong this season, thus sending several SAL outbreaks (made worse by the drought) into the Atlantic.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:43 am

Exactly. Also this season has shown us that you don't need the Cape Verde systems to have real monsters, they can form just outside your door. Furthermore, this season shows that even without the help of the Cape Verde area, you can have an extraordinary, astronomical active year.
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#4 Postby Jim Hughes » Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:14 am

Allot of Dr Grays early research dealt with the African drought cycles. We saw many characteristics of an El Nino this past winter and their drought may have been related to this.....SAL also.

But like the others have mentioned we seemd to have not needed the Cape Verde systems this year. I believe the upcoming years are going to show that all the talk about the strong ENSO relationship, with Atlantic activity levels, may have gotten overblown in the 90's. Unless it is strong of course.

It may end up being more of a factor in determining locationcal hot spots. If I am correct a moderate to strong positive SOI phase will dominate between now and next summer. So maybe the Cape Verde season will be more active next year. Kind of scary when you think about it.



Jim
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