IS wilma making a more northern landfall in fl???

[NateFLA]

I think our local mets are resigned to the fact that Wilma is coming to South Florida. The big question is how strong a storm we will be dealing with. If the Yucatan beats her up pretty good before the trough sucks her northeast, then we are looking at Cat 1-2 on the West Coast and minimal hurricane conditions here in Palm Beach County. As far as a Central Florida even though they are still in the cone, I can’t see it going that far up the coast. A scenario which could realistically happen is the front sucking her ENE through the Florida Straits and out into the Atlantic.

Wasn't the trough already supposed to have picked her up?

[skysummit]

I think our local mets are resigned to the fact that Wilma is coming to South Florida. The big question is how strong a storm we will be dealing with. If the Yucatan beats her up pretty good before the trough sucks her northeast, then we are looking at Cat 1-2 on the West Coast and minimal hurricane conditions here in Palm Beach County. As far as a Central Florida even though they are still in the cone, I can’t see it going that far up the coast. A scenario which could realistically happen is the front sucking her ENE through the Florida Straits and out into the Atlantic.

I don't think we should talk about "realistically happening" right now because nothing will be imminent until she makes the turn, and where she makes that turn will decide on where along the coast she goes.

[DCA]

The Florida landfall location is certainly in question, but I must say this "gaggle" of TPA folks reminds me a lot of those North Carolinians two years ago.

[CHRISTY]

brayan norcross said the threat is from about fort myers down to keywest so north florida sounds a bit to much...the jet stream is going to come pretty far south i think this will prevent it from going to far north so i trust brayan norcross he's one of the best in my opinion....

[Rainband]

I think our local mets are resigned to the fact that Wilma is coming to South Florida. The big question is how strong a storm we will be dealing with. If the Yucatan beats her up pretty good before the trough sucks her northeast, then we are looking at Cat 1-2 on the West Coast and minimal hurricane conditions here in Palm Beach County. As far as a Central Florida even though they are still in the cone, I can’t see it going that far up the coast. A scenario which could realistically happen is the front sucking her ENE through the Florida Straits and out into the Atlantic.

and your credentials are?? The lastest advisory says the entire Florida pennisula should watch her. Until she emerges off the yucatan it's a crapshoot. With the models wobbling and Wilma doing the same. I thinks its a better bet to keep statements like that up to the pros.

[jax]

I think our local mets are resigned to the fact that Wilma is coming to South Florida. The big question is how strong a storm we will be dealing with. If the Yucatan beats her up pretty good before the trough sucks her northeast, then we are looking at Cat 1-2 on the West Coast and minimal hurricane conditions here in Palm Beach County. As far as a Central Florida even though they are still in the cone, I can’t see it going that far up the coast. A scenario which could realistically happen is the front sucking her ENE through the Florida Straits and out into the Atlantic.

and your credentials are?? The lastest advisory says the entire Florida pennisula should watch her. Until she emerges off the yucatan it's a crapshoot. With the models wobbling and Wilma doing the same. I thinks its a better bet to keep statements like that up to the pros.

it's looking more and more like a probable widespread rainevent with
some gusty winds...

[gatorcane]

For each mile she goes NW the chances of a Tampa Bay hit go up. I do not expect an E movement for Wilma, maybe ENE to NE but that is it.

So I reiterate, Tampa Bay is not out of the woods. Let's not get lost in all of this S. Florida hype because honestly the NHC did not predict it to get this strong and go this far W a couple of days ago.

Tampa Bay stay on your guard.

[Rainband]

The Florida landfall location is certainly in question, but I must say this "gaggle" of TPA folks reminds me a lot of those North Carolinians two years ago.

there is nothing wrong with being prepared. Hurricanes are unpredicatble.

[k-man]

For each mile she goes NW the chances of a Tampa Bay hit go up. I do not expect an E movement for Wilma, maybe ENE to NE but that is it.

So I reiterate, Tampa Bay is not out of the woods. Let's not get lost in all of this S. Florida hype because honestly the NHC did not predict it to get this strong and go this far W a couple of days ago.

Tampa Bay stay on your guard.

Not exactly, the NHC track shows that she still has about 90-100 miles to go NW before she makes the turn. If she continues to go NW beyond *that*, then I'd say it's possible that she could hit a bit further north than Fort Myers. The eye would have to clear the tip of the YP to the NorthWest for her to have gone off the NHC track.

I think a Tampa hit is highly unlikely. I also think we'll be looking at at Cat 1 when she makes landfall in Florida....

[tronbunny]

k-man,
It would be better for everyone if Wilma is a cat 1 at landfall, no matter where it hits.
According to the latest GFS and GFDL, they think cat 2 with south central FL feeling as much as cat 1 winds. I'd expect tons of rain, even with it moving fast, simply because there's already plenty of moisture starting now.

While, models have been all over the place, at times, the general consensus is still a SWFL strike.
But always remember a hurricane is not a point, and we still have a solid 48 hours until it's likely to come this way, so there's still plenty of room for worry along the entire FL peninsula.

[dixiebreeze]

For each mile she goes NW the chances of a Tampa Bay hit go up. I do not expect an E movement for Wilma, maybe ENE to NE but that is it.

So I reiterate, Tampa Bay is not out of the woods. Let's not get lost in all of this S. Florida hype because honestly the NHC did not predict it to get this strong and go this far W a couple of days ago.

Tampa Bay stay on your guard.

Excellent points!

[Wacahootaman]

Cedar Key!!!

Lordy! I lives in Wacahoota and that means:

WE ALL GONNA DIE!

[MetroMike]

It is irresponsible for someone to state 'the models are trending north"

There is a large divergence in 5 day tracks. Where are the UKMET and EURO? Through the FLorida straits....

If you look at all the models and their trends... some have gone northward, some southward, some have remained the same. Then there is the GFDL that is bouncing its 5 day forecast around by THOUSANDS OF MILES.

Don't make WRONG blanket statements that can effect peoples judgement.
-Eric

Why is it wrong to state what is a observation? Its part of the process of the evolution of this system.

[ay]

For each mile she goes NW the chances of a Tampa Bay hit go up. I do not expect an E movement for Wilma, maybe ENE to NE but that is it.

So I reiterate, Tampa Bay is not out of the woods. Let's not get lost in all of this S. Florida hype because honestly the NHC did not predict it to get this strong and go this far W a couple of days ago.

Tampa Bay stay on your guard.

Can I still go to the hockey game tonight I'll take the 11pm shift.

Seriously. Virtually nothing has changed in the official forecast for the past 48 hrs. It turned a Cat 5 on wednesday and the tracks been the same ever since.

Not saying that it can't hit Tampa. It certainly can, but its been SFL for the entire time and until the NHC changes that, I'm going on with my life.

[Noah]

What will sarasota feel from wilma?

[TampaFl]

What will sarasota feel from wilma?

FXUS62 KTBW 221354
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
955 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES BY
MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...REST OF TODAY: A SOMEWHAT TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON REGARDING IF...AND WHERE...BAND OF HEAVY RAINS SETS UP.
THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE CONVERGENT ZONE
SETS UP. GFS SHOWS WHAT COULD BE A SPURIOUS SHORT WAVE SLIDING
ACROSS CENTRAL FL LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING SETTING OFF AN
IMPRESSIVE BAND OF VERTICAL MOTION AND HENCE HEAVY RAINS.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS SUIT WITH RAIN CHANCES NEAR 100 PERCENT
ASSUMED BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z GENERALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH...AND QPF
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THE
NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...RAINS ARE CONSIDERED BENEFICIAL MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE AFTER A VERY DRY END TO THE TYPICAL RAINY SEASON.

THE NAM IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE...WHICH MAY BE MORE REALISTIC.
FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE NUMEROUS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR
ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TWEAK AS NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING
AS TIME PERMITS.

FOR NOW...NO UPDATES PLANNED TO ZONES.

THEREAFTER...THE FOCUS IS ON WILMA AND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LINK UP WITH THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST MODEL TRACKS REMAIN IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH LOCATION...STILL HONING IN ON COLLIER
COUNTY...BUT CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON TIMING AS THE 06Z RUNS WERE
SEVERAL HOURS SLOWER THAN THE 00Z RUNS. THE BIG PICTURE WEATHER FOR
THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME: A NASTY DAY MONDAY WITH RAIN
AND COOLING WINDS GUSTING OVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM SARASOTA
NORTH...AND SHIFTING WINDS FROM EAST TO NORTH GUSTING NEAR OR ABOVE
HURRICANE FORCE IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY ALONG WITH 3 TO 6
HOURS OF TORRENTIAL RAINS. BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SAY "HELLO" TO
DECEMBER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND THE END OF OUR HURRICANE SEASON
SINCE THE COOL AIR WILL SOON KNOCK DOWN GULF TEMPERATURES INTO THE
HOSTILE 75 DEGREE RANGE.MORE ON THE EXPECTED KEY HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON.

[gtalum]

What will sarasota feel from wilma?

A nasty windy and rainy day on Monday. Personally, I'll take it.

[johngaltfla]

What will sarasota feel from wilma?

A nasty windy and rainy day on Monday. Personally, I'll take it.

With the potential for a boatload of tornadoes. See the Wilma tornado thread and watch WTVT 13 tonight. They really summed up what could happen to those areas pinched between Wilma and the cold front.

This is not the time to let your guard down now.

[mountainspring]

One week after we purchased our house in the Tampa Bay area, we were huddled in my sister's house, where we had evacuated to, watching Charley roar towards us. Every indication was that Charley was coming straight for Tampa Bay. Only a totally unexpected turn, at the last minute, saved Tampa/St. Pete. In addition, Charley was coming up as a CAT 2, and then suddenly, about the same time it made the unexpected turn, it became a CAT 4.

That experience has taught me that a) you should never rest easy because you think you know where the storm is going and b) you should never rest easy because you think you've only got a "mild" hurricane coming your way.

Yes, preparing for a storm and evacuating are inconvenient ... but far less so than dying.