Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 211801
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:44:00Z
B. 20 deg 19 min N
086 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2461 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 101 deg 116 kt
G. 010 deg 035 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 7 C/ 3048 m
J. 20 C/ 3042 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 116 KT N QUAD 17:24:50 Z

[curtadams]

I don't know why the NHC held the intensity so high when aircraft, dropsonde, SFMR, and modeling all suggested a 10-20-knot weaker storm.

its life.....every storm is handled this way and i dont really see the negative aspect of it....better to err on the side of caution.

I'm all for caution - but when ALL the data says low Cat 4 or cat 3, they should call it that. The NHC's normal policy is to accept the hard data and use judgement to adjudicate the weighting. They do not normally go outside the guidance and that's good policy. It won't help evacuation credibility when people see something claimed as a Cat 4-5 do Cat 3 damage. They're still calling 140 mph, long after everything agrees it's lower even than that.

[Seele]

Hey, does anyone know why the vortex messages are very spotty on showing concentric eyewalls? This vortex only has one as did almost all of them yesterday. Only a few reported them. Also noticed the same thing during Katrina. I remember an AF plane reporting concentric eyewalls and a NOAA plane in the storm at the same time wasn't.

[NCSUWX23]

Wow I didnt know the aircraft sampled the whole storm already.

[Thunder44]

I don't know why the NHC held the intensity so high when aircraft, dropsonde, SFMR, and modeling all suggested a 10-20-knot weaker storm.

its life.....every storm is handled this way and i dont really see the negative aspect of it....better to err on the side of caution.

I'm all for caution - but when ALL the data says low Cat 4 or cat 3, they should call it that. The NHC's normal policy is to accept the hard data and use judgement to adjudicate the weighting. They do not normally go outside the guidance and that's good policy. It won't help evacuation credibility when people see something claimed as a Cat 4-5 do Cat 3 damage. They're still calling 140 mph, long after everything agrees it's lower even than that.

Drosponde just reported 118kt winds at surface, so it supports the current intensity that TPC has it now.

[Normandy]

Man everyone is quick to call storms weaker then they really are. Trust the NHC they know what they are doing

[bigmoney755]

can I see that dropsonde message?

[Thunder44]

can I see that dropsonde message?

Look on the recon reports thread.

[bigmoney755]

thanks

[Normandy]

Couple questions.....where in the eyewall was the measurement taken, and also what does that say about the flight level winds of 116 knots in relation to the 118 knot surface?

[LanceW]

Before I make an #$#% of myself again, when is the 80% wind reduction used?

[skysummit]

Before I make an #$#% of myself again, when is the 80% wind reduction used?

When the winds are measured at flight level.

[jkt21787]

Before I make an #$#% of myself again, when is the 80% wind reduction used?

80% is used for 850mb FL, and 90% for 700mb FL. However, we have surface dropsonde data that contradicts the FL data, so right now, it would be best to use the dropsondes that reported 118kt SURFACE winds.

[superfly]

Couple questions.....where in the eyewall was the measurement taken, and also what does that say about the flight level winds of 116 knots in relation to the 118 knot surface?

It was in the NW eyewall I believe. It means is that it is probably a 100% conversion rate from flight level to surface, rather than the 90% usually used.

[cycloneye]

369
UZNT13 KNHC 211806
XXAA 71188 99202 70868 08106 99939 ///// ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85865 21006 28617 70536 14000 88999 77999
31313 09608 81750
51515 10191
61616 AF305 1524A WILMA OB 11
62626 EYEWALL 230 LST WND 681 AEV 20507 =
XXBB 71188 99202 70868 08106 00939 ///// 11870 21606 22850 21006
33721 15808 44705 15400 55697 13000
21212 00939 ///// 11868 28619 22850 28617 33697 31078
31313 09608 81750
51515 10191
61616 AF305 1524A WILMA OB 11
62626 EYEWALL 230 LST WND 681 AEV 20507 =


Here is another Dropsonde after the previous one discussed.

[Normandy]

Couple questions.....where in the eyewall was the measurement taken, and also what does that say about the flight level winds of 116 knots in relation to the 118 knot surface?

It was in the NW eyewall I believe. It means is that it is probably a 100% conversion rate from flight level to surface, rather than the 90% usually used.

SO what are the flight level winds in the NE eyewall?

[bigmoney755]

I dont know how to read that dropsonde so do they show the winds in the latest dropsonde?

[thunderchief]

that last drop is missing surface temp and wind, unfortunatly.

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 211801
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/19:01:40Z
B. 20 deg 22 min N
086 deg 42 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 235 deg 112 kt
G. 139 deg 031 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 9 C/ 3044 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 116 KT N QUAD 17:24:50 Z

[artist]

can someone explain double wind maximum please. ALso what is the diameter of the 2 eyewalls?