Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[6SpeedTA95]

It appears that the post-storm wind analysis will not be all that exciting. Recon just reported 118kts at the surface (about 135-140mph) which is what the NHC has it at. No one seems to be saying higher, although it looks somewhat strong on satellite and some are saying that its weaker (but 118 seems to be some confirmation that it is near 140 if not there).

118kts at the surface in just that one spot so it is probably safe to assume there are 120kts winds if not higher somewhere else in the storm.

Yeah a 2kt various is possible and even likely, but odds are they flew through the strongest part of the storm to get those readings so I'd suspect the weakest part of the storm is closer to 100kts

[Derek Ortt]

if the 118KT is valid

1. I was wrong

2. This just goes to show that that the 90% rule is NOT uniform as the surface winds would be greater than flight level, as was the case for Charley. I am suspicious due to the low mean boundary layer wind that the surface reading may be a bad point, like the 230 m.p.h. reading from Katrina

[Wirbelsturm]

Anyone see the new GFDL? It is very interesting, to say the least!

[curtadams]

Dropsonde beats estimation from flight-level. Estimation from flight-level is VERY inaccurate. Surface of 80-100% of FL is normal, so FL 116 and surface 118 is a reasonable result. The dropsonde needs to be evaluated for gust effects, heights, etc., of course. The fact that the dropsonde was in the strengthening outer eyewall indicate Wilma came onshore near the perfect time for minimizing damage.

Why doesn't the NHC time its recon for the advisories? Now and tonight they're issuing advisories on quite old data exactly as recon is being conducted. Seems a good way to get an inaccurate advisory.

[SkeetoBite]

if the 118KT is valid

1. I was wrong

2. This just goes to show that that the 90% rule is NOT uniform as the surface winds would be greater than flight level, as was the case for Charley. I am suspicious due to the low mean boundary layer wind that the surface reading may be a bad point, like the 230 m.p.h. reading from Katrina

In the case of #1 above, you're fired and I want my money back!

Thanks for all you do here and for providing us your forecast data. I really appreciate it.

[skysummit]

Cozumel completely in the eye.

[SouthFloridawx]

Anyone see the new GFDL? It is very interesting, to say the least!

Can anyone post the current gfdl run please?

[cjrciadt]

Updated models showing up.

[melhow]

And recon dropsonde measured 118kt in the eyewall....so 118x1.1507=135.8 mph

Josh what needs to play out for this to be a threat to Tampa South to Sarasota. My thinking is if it doesn't stall but would like to hear what you have to say.

Well, I am still looking at stuff but It seems to me that SRQ northward(maybe closer to Ft. Myers northward-but I am a bit concerned if it makes too much northward progress before turning) looks to be in the clear from a LANDFALL DIRECT HIT. With that said, the wind field on the northern half will be expanding dramamtically with the approach of a bonafide cold front. (temps Tuesday morning may drop into the 40s around BKV)
With that said, I would anticiapte quite a bit of rain along with strong sustained persistant wind around TBW MOnday of around 35 to 50 mph. Add about 5 to 10 mph around SRQ and diminish very slightly farther north near BKV due to the cold front and WIlma.

THis is a preliminary statement I am making as I feel it is not too late to wait for about one or 2 more solid model cycles (cheating to see if Wilma is far enough north) before really nailing one down.

Still seems reasonable to me Ft. Myers south to Naples as a landfall point.

Hey Josh,

What would be your cut-off point for Northward progress for it NOT to pose a threat for a direct hit to the bay area? Meaning how far is too far North for Bay area comfort?

thx, melissa

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anyone see the new GFDL? It is very interesting, to say the least!

No where is it?

[Wirbelsturm]

Here it is! http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[Rae]

Do you all really thing she'll go that far inland? Looks to me like she's gonna traverse less land.

[shawn67]

Here it is! http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

You've GOT to be kidding me!!!

My father in law has a home in on the Lee County-Charlotte County line and his brother has a home in Hyannisport...to think they could both be affected...unbelievable.

Shawn

[curtadams]

That must be a spectacular sight from N Cozumel island. Completely surrounded by a large clear eye. I would love to see video from there. (Yes, I know what they're been through)

[cinlfla]

No where is it?

[url]
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL ... ml#picture[/url]



This is also a good graphic of the GFDL for wind speed

[THead]

Do you all really thing she'll go that far inland? Looks to me like she's gonna traverse less land.

Looks like the area of land she's going to traverse is about twice her eye diameter, so about 70-80 miles. If she maintains the 5 mph, she'll be over land more than 12 hours, that should definitely take a toll on her. Going to be VERY interesting to see how much she weakens. I hope everyone on the YP was prepared, not going to be a good day and night....obviously.

[markymark8]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. Shes supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

[tronbunny]

Here it is! http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

You've GOT to be kidding me!!!

My father in law has a home in on the Lee County-Charlotte County line and his brother has a home in Hyannisport...to think they could both be affected...unbelievable.

Shawn

Holy Moley! Cat 2 in SWFL and Cat 3 on Cape Cod!

This one now has my area with Cat 1 winds, too!

Ugh!

[storms in NC]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

[k-man]

Here it is! http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

You've GOT to be kidding me!!!

My father in law has a home in on the Lee County-Charlotte County line and his brother has a home in Hyannisport...to think they could both be affected...unbelievable.

Shawn

Holy Moley! Cat 2 in SWFL and Cat 3 on Cape Cod!

This one now has my area with Cat 1 winds, too!!

Ugh!

This scenario will never happen....