Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Windtalker1]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

I agree!!!!!! Don't breath that sigh of relief just yet....you'll be sorry.

[linkerweather]

And recon dropsonde measured 118kt in the eyewall....so 118x1.1507=135.8 mph

Josh what needs to play out for this to be a threat to Tampa South to Sarasota. My thinking is if it doesn't stall but would like to hear what you have to say.

Well, I am still looking at stuff but It seems to me that SRQ northward(maybe closer to Ft. Myers northward-but I am a bit concerned if it makes too much northward progress before turning) looks to be in the clear from a LANDFALL DIRECT HIT. With that said, the wind field on the northern half will be expanding dramamtically with the approach of a bonafide cold front. (temps Tuesday morning may drop into the 40s around BKV)
With that said, I would anticiapte quite a bit of rain along with strong sustained persistant wind around TBW MOnday of around 35 to 50 mph. Add about 5 to 10 mph around SRQ and diminish very slightly farther north near BKV due to the cold front and WIlma.

THis is a preliminary statement I am making as I feel it is not too late to wait for about one or 2 more solid model cycles (cheating to see if Wilma is far enough north) before really nailing one down.

Still seems reasonable to me Ft. Myers south to Naples as a landfall point.

Hey Josh,

What would be your cut-off point for Northward progress for it NOT to pose a threat for a direct hit to the bay area? Meaning how far is too far North for Bay area comfort?

thx, melissa

#1 it depends upon your comfort level
#2 See my previous post, I don't want to commit to anything too far north just yet, but, expect a rainy, windy day Monday

[markymark8]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

I dont think so. She is basically almost cat 3 already. At the most she will likeley be only a strong cat 1 when she hits Florida or if she amazingly holds together that well a weak cat 2 IF it does exactly what the GFDL shows.

[curtadams]

That GFDL run probably overestimates the FL strike. The GFDL doesn't handle shear well, and there's a lot of shear forecast in the GoM. In terms of the NE strike, remember: one model run shows its PLAUSIBLE but not certain or even likely. However, NE will need to prepare if this holds up because we won't know if it verifies until it's almost there because it will be moving so fast. I gotta admit, a Cat 3 in MAINE in late October is boggling!

[jkt21787]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

I dont think so she is basically almost cat 3 already. At the most she will likeley be only a strong cat 1 when she hits florida or if she amazingly holds together that well a weak cat 2 IF it does exactly what the GFDL shows.[/u]

She is a pretty solid cat 4 right now. New recon data confirms this (eyewall dropsonde suggested 118kt SURFACE winds)

[DLI2k5]

If the pressure is down to 926mb now , down from the 930mb it was this morning, why aren't the winds at least up to the 145mph they were earlier if not higher? I know the eye is over Cozumel now and you have land interaction, but figured with the pressure having dropped, you'd expect increase in winds. I haven't been able to come to the site until now, so did i miss something?

[skysummit]

http://img480.imageshack.us/img480/8185 ... dar5by.jpg

[artist]

my understanding is it takes awhile for the winds to catch up with pressure falls sometimes.

[cinlfla]

If the pressure is down to 926mb now , down from the 930mb it was this morning, why aren't the winds at least up to the 145mph they were earlier if not higher? I know the eye is over Cozumel now and you have land interaction, but figured with the pressure having dropped, you'd expect increase in winds. I haven't been able to come to the site until now, so did i miss something?

I read somewhere that the winds have to catch up with the pressure if I'm wrong you can bet someone will correct me

[THead]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

I dont think so. She is basically almost cat 3 already. At the most she will likeley be only a strong cat 1 when she hits Florida or if she amazingly holds together that well a weak cat 2 IF it does exactly what the GFDL shows.

Nobody imagined it would have hit 882mb either when she was TD24. Nobody has a good grasp on intensity forecasting, and with this season, we've been amazed so many times. I also think and hope its going to weaken considerably, but I'm also preparing myself to be amazed yet again this year.

[storms in NC]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

I dont think so. She is basically almost cat 3 already. At the most she will likeley be only a strong cat 1 when she hits Florida or if she amazingly holds together that well a weak cat 2 IF it does exactly what the GFDL shows.

This is why I say a cat3.
Part of the eye will stay off the coast and then when she moves away from land she is still in low shear and can build back to a strong 5. When she does hit the shears it will not put her down to a cat 1. She will be over very warm water and moving faster. so that is why I say a cat3. I hope I am very very wrong cause I have two of my kids that live in Ft Myers and a brother and his family. But just hold on till sat after noon and we should know more.

[EyELeSs1]

Wind in a circulation is produced as a result in air moving from high pressure to lower pressure... basically the tighter the gradient the stronger the winds... Now we have a double wind maxima again or concentric eyewalls. So the pressure gradient is more spread out than say if it only had one eyewall. So there was enough available energy to allow for a drop in pressure but that does not necessarily mean an increase in wind speed.

P.S from recon the outer wind maxima seems to be the most intense right now which further supports this.

[6SpeedTA95]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

thats a bold statement

[Blown Away]

Ukmet, A98E, and LBAR tracks are similar to the NHC track which shows Wilma clipping the NE Yucatan.

GFDL, GFS, and BAM's show the extreme W tracks into the Yucatan. Don't these models have similar characteristics? Those tracks seem a little extreme to me given the NW movement.

[jkt21787]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

thats a bold statement

So is saying they will see a TS or weak cat 1.

[jkt21787]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

thats a bold statement

So is saying they will see a TS or weak cat 1.

[StormFury]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

thats a bold statement

Yeah, and what a blessing for NC!

[curtadams]

If the pressure is down to 926mb now , down from the 930mb it was this morning, why aren't the winds at least up to the 145mph they were earlier if not higher? I know the eye is over Cozumel now and you have land interaction, but figured with the pressure having dropped, you'd expect increase in winds. I haven't been able to come to the site until now, so did i miss something?

The winds probably weren't 145 then. The highest data was just over 130, but the NHC put 145 in the advisory anyway. The 100% surface/FL ratio in the outer eyewall suggests it is indeed strengthening.

[Patrick99]

Whether it's a wobble or not, right now she is heading more west into the Yucatan.....effectively committing suicide. Unless something changes soon, I don't think there will be much left by the time it gets here.

[6SpeedTA95]

URNT12 KNHC 211801
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/19:01:40Z
B. 20 deg 22 min N
086 deg 42 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 235 deg 112 kt
G. 139 deg 031 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 9 C/ 3044 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 116 KT N QUAD 17:24:50 Z