Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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HURAKAN
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#2881 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:36 pm

Brent wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:It seems to be stationary right now, POOR COZUMEL.


Actually... Cozumel is getting nice weather right now.


You are partially right, but the south part of the island is still in the eyewall, and should be getting really hammered right now.
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#2882 Postby skysummit » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:38 pm

Brent wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:It seems to be stationary right now, POOR COZUMEL.


Actually... Cozumel is getting nice weather right now.


LOL...yup....calm winds, blue skies...I would LOVE to experience that.
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CHRISTY

#2883 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:39 pm

opinions on this north movement.....
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#2884 Postby f5 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:40 pm

Cancun is getting sandblasted with that eye sitting over the island
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#2885 Postby x-y-no » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:42 pm

f5 wrote:Cancun is getting sandblasted with that eye sitting over the island


Yeah, they're getting pounded alright ... :eek:
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#2886 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:43 pm

The center is on land on that island. Some one is getting blue sky's with 926 millibars of pressure.
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#2887 Postby THead » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:43 pm

skysummit wrote:
Brent wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:It seems to be stationary right now, POOR COZUMEL.


Actually... Cozumel is getting nice weather right now.


LOL...yup....calm winds, blue skies...I would LOVE to experience that.


Me too, but maybe not while on a little island like that!
:)
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#2888 Postby Foladar0 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:43 pm

CHRISTY wrote:opinions on this north movement.....

Read .. please .. it is just a wobble..
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#2889 Postby bucman1 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:44 pm

Eventually all these wobbles are going to start adding up and make a difference in the path!!!!
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#2890 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:44 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...EYE OF WILMA CROSSING OVER COZUMEL...
...NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
END OF THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
REMAIN INLAND ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTER
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...20.6 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 926 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#2891 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:45 pm

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z FRI OCT 21 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 86.9W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 325SE 175SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 86.9W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 86.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.9N 87.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.2N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.8N 87.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.7N 86.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 175NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 32.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 42.0N 62.9W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 86.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#2892 Postby shawn67 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:46 pm

CHRISTY wrote:opinions on this north movement.....


Christy--

You might as well try to read tea leaves, find that oija board in the closet, or ask the magic 8 ball. I dont think anyone will have the answers for a couple of hours to see if we have a trend.

Shawn
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#2893 Postby gtalum » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:46 pm

bucman1 wrote:Eventually all these wobbles are going to start adding up and make a difference in the path!!!!


Well they would, except the wobbles even out. A wobble north plus a wobble west equals northwest movement, just as predicted.
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#2894 Postby THead » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:47 pm

Foladar0 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:opinions on this north movement.....

Read .. please .. it is just a wobble..


Something different going on here, since it has slowed considerably also.
IMO
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#2895 Postby shawn67 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:48 pm

Foladar0 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:opinions on this north movement.....

Read .. please .. it is just a wobble..


Yes you sure are cutting her alot of slack.... :roll:
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#2896 Postby Bgator » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:49 pm

I think the new Forecast intensity is WAY to low, weakening it to a 1 over the Yucatan!?
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#2897 Postby f5 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:49 pm

Cozumel is getting a long period of nice sunny weather in Wilma's eye :sun: :layout: while Cancun continues to get pounded :yesno:
Last edited by f5 on Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2898 Postby AZS » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:49 pm

Image
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#2899 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:50 pm

thunderchief wrote:
shawn67 wrote:
Foladar0 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:can someone take a look at a close satilite image and tell me what they see.. i see in the very last image a jump to the north?

Yes, it's called a wobble..


Cut her some slack...usually wobble are insignificant but in this situation they can be huge in regards to the amount of this Wilma is on the YP.

Shawn


just before landfall is the only time to pay attention to the wobbles.


i would say it is just before landfall for those in mexico
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#2900 Postby THead » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:53 pm

Bgator wrote:I think the new Forecast intensity is WAY to low, weakening it to a 1 over the Yucatan!?


That does seem hard to believe at this point. We'll have to see though, as it has definitely slowed down the last few frames.
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