Invest 99L,Eastern Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#81 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:28 pm

Here's a nice loop for watching this, one that isn't overwhelmed with Wilma traffic:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/prir.html
(zoom it in and speed it up to examine for circulation)

milankovitch · #82 Postby **milankovitch** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:34 pm

Shear is deacrasing this definetly has a chance to develop.

MiamiensisWx · #83 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:37 pm

bvigal wrote:Here's a nice loop for watching this, one that isn't overwhelmed with Wilma traffic:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/prir.html
(zoom it in and speed it up to examine for circulation)

I think I see a slight circulation and/or developing center within the deep convection.

Anyone else notice that, or see what I see?

Website · #84 Postby **Brent** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:35 pm

5:30pm TWO:

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND WINDS GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #85 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:42 pm

A cirulation seems to be forming near 20 north/64.8...Moving west-northwestward. The clouds are starting to band into it...

krysof · #86 Postby **krysof** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:44 pm

shear is strong around it, I don't think it will develop especially since its moving so quickly into unfavorable areas- there will be no TD or TS Alpha for that matter

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #87 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:47 pm

A upper high is starting to form over it. Shear to the northwest is down 20 to 30 knots.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

#88 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:50 pm

krysof wrote:shear is strong around it, I don't think it will develop especially since its moving so quickly into unfavorable areas- there will be no TD or TS Alpha for that matter

BOLD STATEMENT!!! Can you back it up with fact? Have you read the discussion from NHC concerning this system?(just a few posts above this one) It doesn't appear you have.

krysof · #89 Postby **krysof** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:52 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
krysof wrote:shear is strong around it, I don't think it will develop especially since its moving so quickly into unfavorable areas- there will be no TD or TS Alpha for that matter

BOLD STATEMENT!!! Can you back it up with fact? Have you read the discussion from NHC concerning this system?(just a few posts above this one) It doesn't appear you have.

I looked at the shear maps, and there is 20-30 knots of shear to its west, north, south, and east

#90 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:01 pm

From 5:30pmAST Tropical Weather Outlook: A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND WINDS GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

5:30pmAST *** GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS ***
from NWS San Juan ".SYNOPSIS...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 63 WEST IS CREATING WINDS AND RAISING SEAS IN THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CREATE VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WAVE HAS GREAT POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND MAY DO SO AT ANYTIME."

artist · #91 Postby **artist** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:05 pm

will this stay away from the se US coast?

Everyone in the caribbean will be thinking about you here and stay safe if anything becomes of this!

#92 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:11 pm

Don't worry about us, Artist. You just stay safe from Wilma!! OK?

artist · #93 Postby **artist** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:15 pm

thanks bvigal! But I do think about you all everytime a storm appears on the horizon!

Fortunately I don't think we will get a whole lot more than we did with Jeanne and Frances last year. We are ready though!

cajungal · #94 Postby **cajungal** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:37 pm

Hopefully 99L will recurve from the United States. The models are all showing it recurving from the United States at this time. Probably the trough that will send Wilma on her way to Florida will pick up 99L and recurve it out to sea. If it does become Alpha, all I will think of is that little creature ALF. Kinda sounds the same, doesn't it?

#95 Postby **rjgator** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:57 pm

I live in SE florida and just arrived today in the British Virgin ISlands for a 2 week Sailing trip. I have limited access to the internet but seem to be able to get to this forum. Can anyone give my there thoughts on how long the winds will be affecting the BVI's?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #96 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:57 pm

A cirulation really is starting to form at 20.0 north/64.8...I expect this to have a good chance at developing into Alpha.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Website · #97 Postby **Brent** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:02 pm

rjgator wrote:I live in SE florida and just arrived today in the British Virgin ISlands for a 2 week Sailing trip. I have limited access to the internet but seem to be able to get to this forum. Can anyone give my there thoughts on how long the winds will be affecting the BVI's?

Looks like the gusty winds should last through Sunday... Best chance of rain is tonight and tomorrow though... although there is a good chance of rain through Monday.

#98 Postby **O Town** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:08 pm

krysof · #99 Postby **krysof** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:12 pm

models turn it way too quickly, it would already have to move NW or NNW to follow what the models are forecasting

johngaltfla · #100 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 6:19 pm

After Alpha I hereby decree SEASON CANCEL...

The Western Hemisphere is running out of resort towns to wipe out. :eek:

Invest 99L,Eastern Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Need Forecast Input

Re: Need Forecast Input

Who is online