Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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Myersgirl
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#2941 Postby Myersgirl » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:28 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
Myersgirl wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:
jpigott wrote:anyone notice in the latest IR images Wilma is taking on a SW-NE orientation, is the approaching front starting to pull her up


Looking at the last three frames on NHC WV loop I see a NW then N and then NW again, I do not see a NE component yet. That western eyewall waslooking horrible briefly on the WV though.


I think he meant the composure of the storm as a whole, not the direction of movement


Oh, sorry for the confusion the NE portion of the storm is definately looking the best at the moment.


Im no expert, but mabey someone else could explain the significance of storm orientation in reference to future movement
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CHRISTY

#2942 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:29 pm

read the discusion!
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jpigott
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#2943 Postby jpigott » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:29 pm

i always thought when a storm slowed downed and tilted on its axis that it would start turning in the general direction of the tilt
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inotherwords
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#2944 Postby inotherwords » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:30 pm

CHRISTY wrote:read the discusion!


Might take your own advice:

" THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES WILMA COULD SPEND ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER
LAND... WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO MORE WEAKENING THAN HAS
PREVIOUSLY BEEN FORECAST. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL INCREASE THE
DURATION OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER YUCATAN. IT
SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL STILL EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST IT COULD LINGER FOR LONGER THAN THAT.

WHEN IT DOES REACH
THE GULF OF MEXICO... CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. WHEN WILMA MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD AND WIND SHEAR INCREASES... A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF
THE INTENSITY AS WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA IS LESS THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY... PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER
YUCATAN."
Last edited by inotherwords on Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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feederband
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#2945 Postby feederband » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:31 pm

jpigott wrote:i always thought when a storm slowed downed and tilted on its axis that it would start turning in the general direction of the tilt


Is it that or just interaction with land?
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jax

#2946 Postby jax » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:32 pm

jpigott wrote:i always thought when a storm slowed downed and tilted on its axis that it would start turning in the general direction of the tilt


it looks like it's tilting on it's axis because it's having the wested side of it
eaten away by mexico... it's friction
Last edited by jax on Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2947 Postby Myersgirl » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:32 pm

CHRISTY wrote:read the discusion!


Christy you are correct, that was mentioned as a possibility, but that would follow the decrease in strength after spending time on land
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#2948 Postby LanceW » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:34 pm

jax wrote:
jpigott wrote:i always thought when a storm slowed downed and tilted on its axis that it would start turning in the general direction of the tilt


it looks like it's tilting on it's axis because it's having the wested side of it
eaten away by mexico... it's friction


Look at the water vapor loop, looks like something other than Mexico is possibly causing the orientation.
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#2949 Postby Myersgirl » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:35 pm

LanceW wrote:
jax wrote:
jpigott wrote:i always thought when a storm slowed downed and tilted on its axis that it would start turning in the general direction of the tilt


it looks like it's tilting on it's axis because it's having the wested side of it
eaten away by mexico... it's friction


Look at the water vapor loop, looks like something other than Mexico is possibly causing the orientation.


Mabey Wilma dosen't like land and is trying to pull an Ivan
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#2950 Postby LanceW » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:36 pm

Myersgirl wrote:
LanceW wrote:
jax wrote:
jpigott wrote:i always thought when a storm slowed downed and tilted on its axis that it would start turning in the general direction of the tilt


it looks like it's tilting on it's axis because it's having the wested side of it
eaten away by mexico... it's friction


Look at the water vapor loop, looks like something other than Mexico is possibly causing the orientation.


Mabey Wilma dosen't like land and is trying to pull an Ivan


That would be great for Mexico.
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#2951 Postby THead » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:37 pm

AZS wrote:Forget NHC intensity forecasts......

Useless.....

Image


Yeah, please don't tell us that NHC intensity forecast has been spot on with Wilma. I have utmost respect for NHC, but intensity is a real crap shoot it seems.
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#2952 Postby AZS » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:37 pm

Image
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superfly

#2953 Postby superfly » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:39 pm

The eye has held up amazingly well despite the land interaction. Still looks perfectly round on IR and visible.
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#2954 Postby jpigott » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:42 pm

current WV loop of the Gulf of Mexico shows something dropping down into Louisiana and Texas, is this the feature that's going to pull Wilma to the North, and if so, when?
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#2955 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:43 pm

THead wrote:
AZS wrote:Forget NHC intensity forecasts......

Useless.....

Image


Yeah, please don't tell us that NHC intensity forecast has been spot on with Wilma. I have utmost respect for NHC, but intensity is a real crap shoot it seems.


Yes you are correct that intensity is a real crap shoot and I have even seen and heard some of their mets state that. But we weren't talking intensity in my post and the picture you posted was from when she was still a TD and in the formative stages. GMAB!!!
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#2956 Postby f5 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:44 pm

cozumel is getting the best conditions right now
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#2957 Postby x-y-no » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:47 pm

18Z GFS run has the storm leaving the north coast of Yucatan at 36 hours (after just about 24 hours over land)

Image

Large scale image: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_036l.gif
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CHRISTY

#2958 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:49 pm

yes iam seeing the same thing it comtinues to wobble or jog north its like something is pulling it....
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#2959 Postby fci » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:52 pm

CHRISTY wrote:opinions on this north movement.....


Christy; I really avoid being sarcastic with you like many others; however; IT IS A WOBBLE.
Listen to the NHC on the track and try not to read into each and every frame.
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CHRISTY

#2960 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:53 pm

it almost looks like it doesnt want to go onland!
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